PNG-AFNP Quarterly Newsletter October 2025

The gendered effects of rainfall fluctuations on early childhood nutrition - Evidence from Papua New Guinea: Rainfall fluctuations can have profound welfare effects in low- and middle-income countries where households depend heavily on rainfed agriculture for consumption. This study presents new evidence around the effects of rainfall fluctuations on household expenditure and child anthropometric outcomes in Papua New Guinea, an understudied setting with high nutritional vulnerability. Results suggest that real consumption expenditure per adult equivalent declines by 17% in localities experiencing low rainfall, and daily calorie consumption per adult equivalent falls by 14%, driven entirely by a decline in calories from own production rather than purchased food. Moreover, these effects have unequal impact on children: when occurring during the first year of life, they lead to reductions in height for age and weight for age (though with no shift in stunting) with effects being concentrated among girls. Boys appear to be buffered from these rainfall effects, showing no significant change in growth in response to rainfall variation. These findings provide suggestive evidence of gendered vulnerability to early life rainfall shocks, and a potential need for extended education on nutrition, young child feeding, and the importance of meeting both girl and boy food and nutrient requirements.

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