When the rains fail, who goes hungry? Rainfall, gender, and child nutrition in Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea is once again bracing for El Niño. In June 2026, the government announced that the country should begin preparing for a potentially extraordinary and prolonged dry season. The risk is real: the U.S. Climate Prediction Center estimates a more than 80% probability of a very strong El Niño event (the warm phase of an atmospheric phenomenon driven by fluctuating Pacific sea-surface temperatures) in the final quarter of 2026. This could be among the largest recorded in the last 75 years.

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