Publications

2023 Global report on food crises: Joint analysis for better decisions

Founded by the European Union, FAO and WFP at the 2016 World Humanitarian Summit, the Global Network Against Food Crises is an alliance of humanitarian and development actors working together to prevent, prepare for, and respond to food crises and support the Sustainable Development Goal to End Hunger (SDG 2). It seeks to reduce vulnerabilities associated with acute hunger; achieve food security and improved nutrition; and promote sustainable agriculture and food systems, using a ‘3x3 approach.’ This involves working at the global, regional and national levels to support partnerships within existing structures and to improve advocacy, decision-making, policy and programming along the following three dimensions: Dimension 1 | Understanding food crises The work within this dimension aims to build greater consensus and promote evidencebased food security and nutrition analyses and reporting in order to strengthen the collection, quality and coverage of the food security and nutrition data and analysis, and inform decision-making and action. This will be achieved through the contribution to the Global Report on Food Crises, a unique ‘global public good’ under the coordination and leadership of the Food Security Information Network (FSIN), as well as the coordination, synthesis, and publication of technical analyses, including forward-looking analyses of food crises. Dimension 2 | Leveraging strategic investments in food security, nutrition and agriculture The work within this dimension aims to advocate for ‘fit for purpose’ financing that draws on the full range of resource flows (public and private, international and domestic) to better prepare for, prevent and respond to food crises. It seeks to improve coherence between humanitarian, development and peace actions (the HDP ‘nexus’) to build resilience to shocks and promote longer-term self-reliance. Activities include a strong focus on supporting capacity strengthening of country-level actors and institutions, as well as strengthening coordination at the regional level to ensure that investments are focused on the right place, at the right time. Dimension 3 | Going beyond food The work within this dimension aims to foster political uptake and coordination across clusters/sectors to address the underlying multi-dimensional drivers of food crises including environmental, political, economic, societal and security risk factors. It seeks to improve understanding and promote linkages between the different dimensions of fragility through knowledge sharing, advocacy and integrated policy responses.

Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War price shocks on the Bangladesh economy: A general equilibrium analysis

The spike in global commodity prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine war has had major adverse impacts on many developing countries, including Bangladesh, that still depend heavily on energy and food imports. Although the Bangladesh economy has rebounded after the COVID-19 pandemic, the latest global trade shock has threated to increase food insecurity and poverty. This study utilizes the Bangladesh RIAPA economywide model to assess the impact of increases in global commodity prices and explores potential policy interventions to reduce negative impacts. Simulation results show that increases in international commodity prices create a GDP loss of 0.36 percent and an increase of three million in the number of poor (mainly rural poor). Energy price shocks account for most of this decline in real GDP (0.28 percent). The fertilizer subsidy helps spur agriculture production which leads to an increase in crop GDP by 0.78 percent and total agricultural GDP by 0.43 percent. Changes in policy could help mitigate the effects of these price shocks. In particular, petroleum subsidies would help increase production in both agriculture and services, leading to a 0.3 percent increase in household consumption, considerably more than the gain under a targeted cash transfer policy of equal cost. However, given that the petroleum subsidy does not specifically target the poor, it only reduces poverty by a fraction of what a targeted cash transfer would. Moreover, as illustrated by the experiences of other countries, increases in a fuel subsidy, once introduced, are likely to be very difficult to reverse. This suggests that if the major policy goal is to reduce poverty, a direct cash transfer would be more effective than the other policy options considered here. Combining these policies, however, would be even more effective than any single intervention, reducing poverty incidence by around 2.5 million people, and thereby preventing nearly all of the potential increase in poverty resulting from global price shocks.

A Review of Evidence on Gender Equality, Women's Empowerment, and Food Systems

Achieving gender equality and women’s empowerment in food systems can result in greater food security and better nutrition, as well as more just, resilient and sustainable food systems for all. This chapter uses a scoping review to assess the current evidence on pathways between gender equality, women’s empowerment and food systems. The chapter uses an adaptation of the food system framework to organize the evidence and identify where evidence is strong, and where gaps remain. Results show strong evidence on women’s differing access to resources, shaped and reinforced by contextual social gender norms, and on links between women’s empowerment and maternal education and important outcomes, such as nutrition and dietary diversity. However, evidence is limited on issues such as gender considerations in food systems for women in urban areas and in aquaculture value chains, best practices and effective pathways for engaging men in the process of women’s empowerment in food systems, and how to address issues related to migration, crises and indigenous food systems. While there are gender-informed evaluation studies examining the effectiveness of gender- and nutrition-sensitive agricultural programs, evidence indicating the long-term sustainability of such impacts remains limited. The chapter recommends key areas for investment: improving women’s leadership and decision-making in food systems, promoting equal and positive gender norms, improving access to resources, and building cross-contextual research evidence on gender and food systems.

Role of agricultural commercialization in the agricultural transformation of Ethiopia: Trends, drivers, and impact on well-being

Agricultural transformation refers to a series of changes in agriculture that both reflect and drive rising income and economic development more broadly. While the macroeconomic patterns of agricultural transformation are relatively well documented, less is known about how it is manifested at the household level. Ethiopia makes an excellent case study as it has had one of the fastest growing economies in the world. This paper focuses on one aspect of this process: agricultural commercialization, that is, the process through which an increasing share of agricultural output is sold on the market rather than being consumed at home. The analysis uses three nationally representative rural household surveys carried out in 2012, 2016, and 2019, including a panel of 1,900 households. The results show that the share of marketed agricultural output has increased significantly over the seven-year period. Somewhat surprisingly, this increase is not due to a shift in crop mix toward more commercial crops but rather an increase in the degree of commercialization of each crop. Using a correlated random effects model, we find marketed share to be significantly related to age of the head of household, farm size, wealth, distance to road, rainfall, rainfall variability, and region. Although endogeneity is a challenge, descriptive statistics and regression analysis further suggest that agricultural commercialization contributes to higher income, largely because commercial crops generate higher returns per hectare than staple grains. The results indicate that there is no clear line between “subsistence” and “commercial” farms. A large majority of farms have some crop sales, while virtually none of them sell all their output. Similarly, the contrast between subsistence crops and cash crops can be misleading. For example, the value of staple cereal sales in Ethiopia is almost three times greater than that of coffee, the main cash crop. We draw lessons from the results for the design of programs to raise rural incomes by facilitating market-oriented agricultural production.

Does relative deprivation condition the effects of social protection programs on political support? Experimental evidence from Pakistan

2022 UPDATE: Could perceived relative economic standing affect citizens’ support for political leaders and institutions? We explore this question by examining Pakistan’s national unconditional cash transfer program, the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP). Leveraging a regression discontinuity approach using BISP’s administrative data and an original survey experiment, we find that perceptions of relative deprivation color citizen reactions to social protection. When citizens do not feel relatively deprived, receiving cash transfers has little sustained effect on individuals’ reported level of support for their political system and its leaders. However, when citizens feel relatively worse off, those receiving cash transfers become more politically satisfied, while those denied transfers become more politically disgruntled. Moreover, the magnitude of the reduction in political support among non-beneficiaries is larger than the magnitude of the increase in political support among beneficiaries. This has important implications for our understanding of the political ramifications of rising perceived inequality.

2019 Abstract: Why might citizens fail to reward incumbents for providing private goods? While extant literature on the political consequences of targeted government welfare programs has focused on attribution challenges and low levels of civic education and engagement, we offer an additional explanation related to perceived inequality, or the feeling that one is poor relative to other citizens. Leveraging a regression discontinuity design and a survey experiment, we identify the causal effects of a large cash transfer program in Pakistan when relative deprivation is and is not pronounced. When relative deprivation is not salient, we find that cash transfers have little effect on attitudes toward government. However, when relative deprivation is salient, those receiving cash transfers experience increased support for their political leaders and institutions, while those denied transfers become more politically disgruntled. This has important implications for our understanding of the political ramifications of rising inequality and social protection programs.

Synopsis: Improving agricultural value chain coordination and gender inclusiveness in Papua New Guinea

Maximizing efficiency throughout the entire agri-food value chain is critical to fostering greater economic growth and poverty reduction in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Investments in midstream value chain infrastructure (e.g., improved storage facilities, rural feeder roads, electricity, and cold storage transport) are crucial to strengthen linkages between producers and consumers. These investments should also promote inclusive development that benefits both men and women value chain actors. In this study, we analyzed three key value chains in Papua New Guinea—poultry, sweet potato, and fresh vegetables—aiming to guide policymakers and stakeholders toward ways to improve productivity, increase revenue, and bolster competitiveness and inclusiveness within the agriculture and livestock sectors.

Improving agricultural value chain coordination and gender inclusiveness in PNG

The welfare of Papua New Guinea’s (PNG’s) population depends on domestic agriculture productivity and stability. As of 2019, value-added from the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors totaled approximately 17 percent of GDP. However, when considering the downstream value chain activities directly related to the agriculture sector (e.g., agriculture processing, domestic food trade and transportation, and domestic food commodity sales), the larger agri-food system in PNG contributes over 25 percent to the country’s overall GDP (Pradesha and Dorosh, 2022). Maximizing efficiency throughout the entire agri-food value chain is critical to fostering greater economic growth and poverty reduction within the country. Growing a globally competitive agriculture sector also demands investments and capacity strengthening in mid-stream value chain operations such as product aggregation, transport logistics, packaging and processing, and handling. It is important that these investments also promote inclusive development that benefits both men and women value chain actors. Previous research suggests that where women are economically empowered and have access to decent jobs in lucrative nodes (i.e., activities) of value chains, households have higher incomes and are less likely to be poor (FAO, 2011). In PNG, despite women’s greater share of employment in agriculture (60 and 52 percent of women and men work in agriculture, respectively), women participate less in higher-value agricultural production and trade activities (Chang et al., 2016; Omot, Chambers, and Spriggs, 2013; World Bank, 2022).

Synopsis: Implications of public investments and external shocks on agriculture, economic growth and poverty in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis

Policy simulations utilizing an economy-wide model based on PNG national accounts and survey data highlight the importance of linkages between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors of the PNG economy. There are potentially major benefits of increased agricultural productivity for national income and urban households. To reduce rural poverty, however, transport and processing costs must be lowered, as well. Even if only half of the increase in foreign exchange earnings from the 2022 world energy price shock is absorbed into the PNG economy, the real exchange rate appreciates by 13 percent, reducing incomes from export crops. However, increased domestic demand for non-tradable crops contributes to a 10 percent income gain for the rural poor. Using a portion of increased oil and natural gas revenues to finance new investments in crop agriculture, processing and transport, provides even greater benefits by spurring real GDP growth and raising real household incomes by an additional 2 to 4 percentage points. A hypothetical carbon credit arrangement in which PNG reduces deforestation in exchange for funds used to finance cash transfers to the poorest 20 percent of both urban and rural households could raise the incomes of these groups by about 13 percent.

Synopsis: Rural household welfare in Papua New Guinea: Food security and nutrition challenges

While a lot of development planning and policy attention has been dedicated to achieving dietary energy (i.e., calorie) adequacy to ensure food security and support greater household wellbeing, nutrition adequacy is also necessary to achieve improved human development indicators (e.g., improved educational attainment, decreased disease prevalence, and decreased child stunting prevalence). This study (explained in detail in the comprehensive working paper) calculates two poverty lines based on the costs that an individual faces in PNG to secure a diet consisting of foods typically consumed by poor households adjusted to align with a calorie threshold and healthy diet thresholds, respectively, together with modest non-food expenditures. Results suggest that over half of the sample households are unable to meet the necessary costs of ensuring an calorie equate modest food basket along with some basic non-food needs (Schmidt et al., 2022). Comparing the healthy diet poverty line to average household income suggests that attaining a nutritious, balanced diet while meeting other basic needs remains out of reach for nearly 4/5 of the rural sample households. Based on the study results, we identify 3 key interventions to improve food and nutrition security in vulnerable areas. First, PNG will continue to face disruptive climate events that quickly increase agricultural vulnerability and food insecurity in remote areas with limited market access and underdeveloped support services. The government of PNG in collaboration with development partners should pilot a series of social safety net programs that can assist vulnerable populations. These programs can be designed to build resiliency during non-shock seasons or years, such as improving livestock holdings, diversifying crop mix, investing in sustainable land management, and building agricultural production and other rural infrastructure for improved marketing and access to agricultural inputs. Second, a concerted effort is needed to promote the importance of nutrition at all levels of society. At the household level, training should aim to instill (for both men and women) the value of a costlier, but more nutritious diet. District and regional government officials, healthcare workers and other key stakeholders should be trained on methodologies to integrate nutrition programming into other development activities. High-level government dialogue and learning should aim to encourage greater coordination between local and federal government officials and across government departments to ensure improved nutrition outcomes for greater agricultural productivity and economic growth. Finally, PNG (both government and development partners) must invest in more timely data collection of key welfare indicators to inform nutrition targets and assistance programming.

Rural household welfare in Papua New Guinea: Food security and nutrition challenges

Papua New Guinea continues to encourage a policy focus on food and nutrition security. The PNG National Nutrition Policy (2016-2026) and Nutrition Strategic Action Plan (2018-2022) (NSAP) set a path to improve coordination, secure sufficient funding, and improve technical capacity of nutrition-focused pro gram implementation. As policy prioritizes improved nutrition outcomes, it is important to understand the cost that households face of securing a higher level of nutrition. Ensuring a healthy diet that meets nutrition standards is relatively expensive in PNG. The analysis presented in this paper, which uses detailed household food and non-food consumption data suggests that 4/5 of households in the survey sample live below the healthy diet poverty line (which sets a calorie threshold and defines healthy diet nutrition targets). That is, these households do not have the income available (or do not consume sufficient food and non-food goods) to meet their basic needs which includes securing a nutritious diet that meets food based die tary guidelines.

IFPRI at a glance

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) believes that by working together, the global community can sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI provides cutting-edge research and policy options on food and nutrition security to support these goals. For more than 40 years, IFPRI has collaborated with stakeholders and partners to contribute needed evidence for country- and region-led policies that help ensure that all people have access to safe, sufficient, nutritious, and sustainably grown food.

Implications of public investments and external shocks on agriculture, economic growth and poverty in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis

Policymakers in Papua New Guinea face difficult choices as to how best to promote economic growth and reduce poverty in the context of vast differences in technology and infrastructure across the country. Fluctuations in world prices of petroleum, minerals, and export crops complicate the management of the economy because of their large impacts on export earnings and government revenues, as well as household welfare. Moreover, other shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic that shut down major parts of the economies of PNG and the rest of the world, have far-reaching effects on various economic sectors, as well as the health and welfare of the population. This paper presents an analysis of investment options in the agricultural sector and the effects of major economic shocks to the PNG economy using an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that provides estimates of the economic linkages between production, household incomes, consumption, investment, and trade. The model’s base data, a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2019, and many of the parameters are derived from the national accounts, household surveys and other data for PNG. It is important to realize, however, that even though the SAM and model structure provide a framework that guarantees a consistency of many of the assumptions, there remain many uncertainties in the data. Thus, the results presented here should not be interpreted as exact estimates, but only approximations of potential effects of policies and external shocks. The plan of this paper is as follows. Chapter 2 provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last two decades, highlighting the declining share of agriculture in GDP despite positive agricultural GDP growth rates and changes in the real exchange rate that have major implications for incentives in the economy. Chapter 3 then presents a summary of the economy-wide model used in the analysis. Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper. Design of the model simulations and model results are discussed in Chapter 4. These simulations cover various investments in agriculture and transport infrastructure, increases in world prices of petroleum and natural gas, price increases for agricultural exports and hypothetical carbon credits tied to a reduction in exports of forestry products. Chapter 5 concludes with a summary of the main findings, policy implications and suggested areas for further work.

Annual report 2021: CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets

PIM had a productive final year centered on synthesizing findings while continuing to respond to demand on the impacts of COVID-19 and preparing the transition to the new CGIAR portfolio. PIM findings and engagement contributed to Myanmar’s response to COVID-19, South Africa’s policies on resilience to climate change, Tunisia's policies for pastoral development, a reform of Nigeria’s national agricultural research system, Ghana’s fish seed and farm certification system, gender strategies for three agricultural value chains in Honduras, and genome editing guidelines for the agricultural sector in four African countries. PIM research informed policy documents of FAO, IFAD, One CGIAR, the UK Government, the World Bank and the World Food Programme. PIM tools enabled more equitable co-management of 76 protected areas in Peru and informed World Bank social protection projects. Books on food security in Bangladesh and Malawi, trade in Latin America, African agricultural value chains and gender were published. 42 PIM synthesis briefs and notes were issued, summarizing research results in key thematic areas. PIM contributed 181 journal articles, 8 journal issues (on demand driven seed systems, China’s response to COVID-19, agriculture and food security in China under COVID-19, food loss and waste, landscape restoration, multistakeholder fora in forestry and two issues on gender), 15 book chapters and about 500 non-peer-reviewed outputs. 16 PIM webinars were organized. PIM’s contributions to the United Nations Food Systems Summit covered agricultural extension, food system innovations and digital technologies, the future of small farms, the science-policy interface, the cost of ending hunger by 2030, food waste and loss, management of the commons and gender. Building on past PIM investments in economywide modeling tools and social accounting matrices, PIM teams continued to assess the impacts of COVID-19 and policy responses at country level. Lessons learned from PIM country-level analyses on COVID-19’s impacts on food systems, poverty and diets are summarized in a chapter of the IFPRI 2022 book “COVID19 and global food security: Two years later”. A paper in partnership with the CGIAR COVID19 Hub reviewed the literature on agri-food value chains for evidence of fractures and resilience in response to the pandemic. The results of coordinated studies on the impacts of COVID-19 on value chains in different countries were published. Several cross-CGIAR outputs initiated by PIM speak to the fulfillment of PIM’s convening role as an integrating program: the CGIAR Foresight Report and CGIAR foresight website; several outputs produced through the CGIAR Community of Excellence on Seed Systems Development, and the CGIAR book “Advancing gender equality through agricultural and environmental research: Past, present, and future” are examples. Other examples of PIM global public goods produced in 2021 are 27 innovations at various stages of uptake, a cross-cutting effort to distill PIM lessons on migration; new or updated social accounting matrices for 25 countries; and lessons and tools on stakeholder platforms for natural resource governance. Independent reviews assessed the effectiveness of PIM’s partnerships and the use by partners of PIM’s work on economywide modelling, agricultural insurance, tenure and governance, and the Ag-Incentives database.

Nutrition as a basic need: A new method for utility-consistent and nutritionally adequate food poverty lines

In most countries and globally, malnutrition rates exceed poverty rates. The World Bank estimates that about 9 percent (689 million) of the global population is poor, yet an estimated 25 percent (2 billion people) suffer from micronutrient deficiencies. Such a discrepancy begs the question: Do standard poverty metrics poorly reflect nutritional needs? The most prevalent methodology for measuring poverty in low- and middle-income countries – the cost of basic needs approach – estimates food baskets that satisfy a dietary energy standard while reflecting consumption patterns of poor households. However, poor households typically consume monotonous diets characterized by large quantities of calorically cheap staple foods that are poor sources of nutrients. This reality creates a circular logic whereby the cost of basic nutritional needs is estimated from populations who are consuming nutritionally inadequate diets. We argue that a healthy diet is a basic need and that the standard used to calculate cost of basic needs food poverty lines should be expanded to satisfy nutritional dietary recommendations, while continuing to reflect context-specific dietary patterns. We develop an approach to estimate food poverty lines that satisfies the food group proportionality associated with healthy diet recommendations while also adhering to observed within-food group consumption patterns of poor households. Furthermore, we address the limitation of estimating a single national food basket – which fails to capture variation in local consumption patterns driven by preferences, availability, and relative prices – by estimating utility-consistent regional poverty lines. We demonstrate the approach using data from Myanmar. Energy-based poverty lines significantly underestimate the cost of acquiring a healthy diet, are severely deficient in multiple micronutrients, and therefore result in a drastic underestimate of the rate of poverty based on a healthy diet standard. The resulting higher cost of basic needs also has important implications for inclusive economic growth strategies and nutrition-sensitive food policies and social protection.

2022 Global report on food crises: Joint analysis for better decisions

Founded by the European Union, FAO and WFP at the 2016 World Humanitarian Summit, the Global Network Against Food Crises is an alliance of humanitarian and development actors working together to prevent, prepare for, and respond to food crises and support the Sustainable Development Goal to End Hunger (SDG 2). It seeks to reduce vulnerabilities associated with acute hunger; achieve food security and improved nutrition; and promote sustainable agriculture and food systems, using a ‘3x3 approach.’ This involves working at the global, regional and national levels to support partnerships within existing structures and to improve advocacy, decision-making, policy and programming along the following three dimensions: Dimension 1 | Understanding food crises The work within this dimension aims to build greater consensus and promote evidencebased food security and nutrition analyses and reporting in order to strengthen the collection, quality and coverage of the food security and nutrition data and analysis, and inform decision-making and action. This will be achieved through the contribution to the Global Report on Food Crises, a unique ‘global public good’ under the coordination and leadership of the Food Security Information Network (FSIN), as well as the coordination, synthesis, and publication of technical analyses, including forward-looking analyses of food crises. Dimension 2 | Leveraging strategic investments in food security, nutrition and agriculture The work within this dimension aims to advocate for ‘fit for purpose’ financing that draws on the full range of resource flows (public and private, international and domestic) to better prepare for, prevent and respond to food crises. It seeks to improve coherence between humanitarian, development and peace actions (the HDP ‘nexus’) to build resilience to shocks and promote longer-term self-reliance. Activities include a strong focus on supporting capacity strengthening of country-level actors and institutions, as well as strengthening coordination at the regional level to ensure that investments are focused on the right place, at the right time. Dimension 3 | Going beyond food The work within this dimension aims to foster political uptake and coordination across clusters/sectors to address the underlying multi-dimensional drivers of food crises including environmental, political, economic, societal and security risk factors. It seeks to improve understanding and promote linkages between the different dimensions of fragility through knowledge sharing, advocacy and integrated policy responses.

COVID-19 and global food security: Two years later

Two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the health, economic, and social disruptions caused by this global crisis continue to evolve. The impacts of the pandemic are likely to endure for years to come, with poor, marginalized, and vulnerable groups the most affected.

In COVID-19 & Global Food Security: Two Years Later, the editors bring together contributions from new IFPRI research, blogs, and the CGIAR COVID-19 Hub to examine the pandemic’s effects on poverty, food security, nutrition, and health around the world. This volume presents key lessons learned on food security and food system resilience in 2020 and 2021 and assesses the effectiveness of policy responses to the crisis. Looking forward, the authors consider how the pandemic experience can inform both recovery and longer-term efforts to build more resilient food systems.

COVID-19 and resilience innovations in food supply chains: Two years later

Two years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, food value chains have undergone some remarkable adjustments, evolving to meet rapidly changing conditions. Their capacity to make these adjustments has depended on public investments in the logistics infrastructure and wholesale markets that form the structure of food systems, as well as public policies that facilitate efficient exchange and private sector innovations, the flow of food systems.

How to ensure effective government responses as COVID-19 spreads to rural areas

As COVID-19 began spreading globally in early 2020, it quickly went beyond major cities to affect rural areas in much of the world. In low-income countries, rural health systems have been overloaded and periodic lockdowns and other restrictions have driven down incomes. Governments have responded to the economic turmoil with an array of social protection programs, and through public health campaigns pushing both safe behaviors and vaccination and providing treatment. As our 2019 IFPRI Policy Brief shows, ensuring high-quality governance and provision of services in rural areas is critical for livelihoods and economic development — and thus central to COVID-19 policy responses.

COVID-19 undermines incomes, livelihoods in rural Myanmar

As the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded in early 2020, Myanmar avoided an early wave of infections. However, even before its first cases were confirmed, the country faced a related economic crisis. Border closures, movement restrictions, and reduced international demand for Myanmar’s goods and services severely affected the nation’s forecasted economic growth. In late 2020, Myanmar also experienced two waves of COVID-19 infections and lockdown measures, followed by a political crisis beginning in February 2021. This combination of widespread COVID-19 and political turmoil has had substantial negative impacts on the nation’s population.

Beyond initial impacts: The evolving COVID-19 context and food system resilience

As we mark the second anniversary of the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the health, economic, and social disruptions associated with this global crisis continue to evolve. The impacts of the pandemic are prolonged and likely to endure for years to come. Poor, marginalized, and vulnerable groups have been disproportionately affected, with informal and migrant workers, refugees and displaced persons, and women and children particularly vulnerable and adversely impacted.

Smarter policies for enhanced food security and food system outcomes

The COVID-19 pandemic has emphasized a multitude of development challenges and opportunities, some of which are new and some ongoing. The disruptions caused by the pandemic have highlighted the interconnections among almost all aspects of society, including the important linkages between food systems and other sectors that are sometimes separately governed and managed. Achieving the desired food system outcomes of health, sustainability, inclusion, resilience, and efficiency (IFPRI 2021) will require alignment and coordination with other sectors such as health, industry, and social development.

How to support students and the learning process during India’s COVID-19 school closures

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected 1.6 billion learners worldwide, and school closures could lead to a loss of 0.3–0.9 years of schooling, according to World Bank estimates; a global shutdown of five months could result in lost earnings of $10 trillion over students’ lifetimes. The pandemic’s economic shocks are likely to increase school drop-out rates. Evidence suggests that the poor, girls, and other marginalized groups disproportionately suffer the consequences of school closures.

A major food transfer program in Bangladesh fell short during the COVID-19 pandemic

Public food transfer programs serve as an important safety net for those facing hunger and food insecurity in both low- and high-income countries around the world. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these programs have become even more crucial, as food insecurity and poverty rates have soared. But lockdowns and other public health restrictions can also disrupt food distribution operations and thus limit their effectiveness.

Waves of disease, waves of poverty: New evidence on the economic impacts of COVID-19 and political instability in Myanmar

COVID-19-related trade disruptions hit several sectors in Myanmar as early as January 2020, but it was the appearance of the country’s first cases in March 2020 and the subsequent lockdown in April that really hurt the economy. Nonessential businesses shut down, workers and traders could not leave home, and demand for labor dried up. The initial COVID-19 prevention measures worked well — resulting in only a few hundred infections in a country of over 50 million by June — but led to a sharp spike in poverty rates followed by a modest economic recovery in mid-2020. However, by September 2020, the country had faced a second, far worse phase of the crisis, with another wave of infections emerging in Rakhine in August 2020 and quickly spreading out of control to Yangon and other regions. Myanmar went from a few hundred confirmed cases in early August to more than 80,000 by late November (though this was surely a large underestimate, given low testing rates), despite widespread lockdown measures starting in mid-September. Then, just as the economy was showing signs of recovery in early 2021, the military took control of the government on February 1, 2021, sparking wide-scale protests and strikes, withdrawal of major foreign investments, crippling financial instability, and a collapse of economic confidence. To make matters worse, mid-2021 saw the Delta wave sweep through Myanmar, producing even higher rates of infection.

COVID-19 disruptions to health and nutrition services in Uttar Pradesh, India

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to major disruptions in preventive health and nutrition services around the world, posing particular risks for vulnerable groups such as young children and pregnant women. Early estimates suggest that these disruptions could lead to more than 1 million additional child deaths and more than 56,000 additional maternal deaths worldwide.

Selected country experiences during the pandemic: Policy responses and CGIAR support

With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, CGIAR pivoted its research planning to better support countries as they responded to the crisis. Despite the unprecedented, highly disruptive nature of the pandemic, CGIAR’s collaborative country work has enhanced engagement across the agrifood sector, leveraged existing capacities, and improved awareness of vulnerabilities within value chains. The insights gained from this experience may ultimately prove useful in addressing other longstanding challenges as well. In this chapter, we recount selected country experiences during the pandemic and the response of the international agricultural research system to support these countries. In the section on country experiences, we draw from IFPRI’s COVID-19 Policy Response Portal (CPR) to focus on lockdown policies in Bangladesh, Kenya, and Nigeria. We describe the steps taken by governments in these countries to address challenges in the agrifood sector and provide social protection to the vulnerable.

COVID-19-induced disruptions of school feeding services exacerbate food insecurity in Nigeria

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown policies have disrupted education, health, and nutrition services globally, with severe implications for children’s well-being. As the pandemic spread, more than 190 countries implemented countrywide school closures, affecting 1.6 billion children around the world. In addition to the direct effects on learning, these closures affect household food security by interrupting school feeding services.

COVID-19, agricultural production, and food value chains

Over the course of the pandemic, research on how COVID-19 has affected agricultural production and food value chains has evolved: as coronavirus infection rates rose and fell and governments instituted a range of responses, the research focus shifted from projecting what might happen to reflecting on what did happen. Early studies focused on the immediate effects of the lockdowns and other restrictions on food supplies. Later studies began to delve more deeply into the diverse private and public countervailing responses — as governments sought to offset the negative impacts of lockdowns — and their effectiveness in maintaining food supply and demand. The growing number of relatively high-quality studies on agriculture and food supply chains allows for some assessment of factors that appear to have diminished or aggravated the impacts of the pandemic. The analytical framework and the methodology used to develop our findings are summarized in Box 1.

Improving agricultural productivity in Papua New Guinea: Strategic and policy considerations

If smallholder farming households in Papua New Guinea achieve higher crop productivity levels, progress will be made along several dimensions of the development vision for PNG – increasing GDP for the agricultural sector and the overall economy; driving growth, diversification, and transformation of local rural economies; improving food consumption; and reducing poverty. In this paper, we examine recent data on yields for the most important crops grown in PNG, assess what yields might be achieved based on productivity data from areas of Indonesia with similar growing conditions, and sketch where policy reforms could provide incentives and access to technologies to achieve higher crop yields by all farmers across PNG.

Mismeasurement and efficiency estimates: Evidence from smallholder survey data in Africa

Smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is commonly characterized by high levels of technical inefficiency. However, much of this characterization relies on self-reported input and production data, which are prone to systematic measurement error. We theoretically show that non-classical measurement error introduces multiple identification challenges and sources of bias in estimating smallholders’ technical inefficiency. We then empirically examine the implications of measurement error for the estimation of technical inefficiency using smallholder farm survey data from Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. We find that measurement error in agricultural input and production data leads to a substantial upward bias in technical inefficiency estimates (by up to 85 percent for some farmers). Our results suggest that existing estimates of technical efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa may be severe underestimates of smallholders’ actual efficiency and what is commonly attributed to farmer inefficiency may be an artifact of mismeasurement in agricultural data. Our results raise questions about the received wisdom on African smallholders’ production efficiency and prior estimates of the productivity of agricultural inputs. Improving the measurement of agricultural data can improve our understanding of smallholders’ production efficiencies and improve the targeting of productivity-enhancing technologies.

2021 PIM partnership evaluation

The evaluative study focuses primarily on PIM’s external partners; this includes partnerships where PIM is engaged by another organization as a service provider and trusted advisor. The objective is to undertake an in-depth analysis of PIM partnerships and to elicit lessons on the key factors contributing to their success in achieving outcomes. The aim is to generate: (1) an inventory of partnerships; (2) an understanding of the motivations for partnership formation, and of the partnership dynamics in promoting innovations and change; and (3) an assessment of strengths, weaknesses, and opportunities to foster stronger future partnerships. This evaluative study serves the dual purposes of accountability to CGIAR partners and funders and of learning. The primary intended users are CGIAR researchers and partners. The findings and lessons learned will also provide input into the implementation of new initiatives under One CGIAR.

This land is her land: A comparative analysis of gender, institutions, and landownership

Most analyses of the gender gaps in landownership are based on one or a few countries in which little discussion is provided of the institutional context. Yet, the institutions within a given context will certainly influence both men’s and women’s landownership. In this paper, we analyze data from individual men and women respondents to the Demographic and Health Surveys in 45 low- and middle-income countries combined with 28 indicators at the national level of relevant institutions. To measure the associations with institutions, we use indicators of the structure of the economy, land market efficiency, women’s labor force participation, education of women and girls, gender equality, women’s property rights, social norms, marital property rights and inheritance, women’s political voice, and the extent of indigenous and communal property in the country. We do not find a clear association between higher GDP and structural transformation in the economy and a smaller gender land gap. This suggests that economic growth and development alone will not resolve the gender land gaps. The indicators that proxy for more gender equality in the labor force, educational attainment, and legal and social norms are all associated with a lower gender gap in landownership.

Women’s tenure security on collective lands: A conceptual framework

Within discussions of land and resource rights, there is growing attention to women’s rights, mostly in terms of household and individual rights to private property. This leaves unanswered questions about whether and how women’s land rights can be secured under collective tenure, upon which billions of people worldwide depend. There is an important gap in conceptual tools, empirical understanding, and policy recommendations on women’s land rights within collective tenure. To address this gap and lay the foundations for a sound body of empirical studies and appropriate policies, we develop a conceptual framework to improve our understanding of women’s land rights under collective tenure. We begin by discussing what secure tenure for women on collective lands would entail. We then present the conceptual framework for what factors would affect women’s tenure security, building on a framework for land tenure security that focuses on individual and household tenure. We give attention to particularities of rangelands, forests, and other types of lands as well as commonalities across types of collective lands. A key theme that emerges is that for women to have secure tenure under collective tenure, two dimensions must be in place. First, the collective (group) itself must have tenure security. Second, women must have secure rights within this collective. The latter requires us to consider the governance structures, how men and women access and control land, and the extent to which women have voice and power within the collective. More consistent analyses of collective tenure systems using the framework presented in this paper can help to identify which action resources are important for groups to secure rights to collective lands, and for women to advocate for their rights within the group.

Distributional consequences of wheat in Sudan: A simulation model analysis

Despite reforms in early 2021, including a devaluation of the currency and a liberalization of imports, there remain significant distortions in Sudan’s wheat value chain, especially related to subsidized sales prices of flatbread. This flatbread subsidy, a key component of wheat policy, is not well-targeted. Calculations based on 2009 national household survey data and current 2021 prices and wheat supply show that urban poor households annually receive slightly less from this subsidy than urban non-poor households (18,900 and 20,800 SDG/capita). Rural poor households receive only 2,700 SDG/capita. This paper presents the results of several simulations of a partial equilibrium model of Sudan’s wheat economy that are designed to analyze the impacts of recent shocks and various options. Model simulations show that increased wheat imports, such as those financed by food aid, add to supplies for processing into wheat flour, flatbread, and other wheat products, resulting in lower prices for consumers and increased consumption, but also disincentives for production. A 300,000 ton increase in wheat imports, as occurred in early 2021, results in an 8 percent increase in wheat consumption and a 35 percent decline in the market price of non-flatbread wheat products. Production falls by 12 percent. Since flatbread prices are unchanged, wheat consumption of the urban poor, for whom flatbread is the major wheat product consumed, increases by only 4 percent. Raising flatbread prices by 30 percent to reduce the size of the fiscal subsidy reduces total consumption of flatbread by 17 percent and sharply reduces wheat consumption and real incomes of the urban poor. All households suffer a loss of 41 to 45 percent in the value of flatbread subsidies received. The urban poor experience the largest decline in total consumption of wheat (14 percent) and in total income (11 percent). (The average total income loss for all households is only 3 percent.) Reducing the flatbread subsidy without a compensating income transfer would significantly reduce the welfare of the urban poor and likely threaten political stability. Our results suggest that a combination of key wheat policies involving high levels of imports – including injection of food aid wheat into the economy in late 2020 – and subsidized flatbread will significantly benefit urban poor households. Nonetheless, the are important data gaps on several aspects of the wheat sector, including no recent nationally representative household expenditure survey data. In addition, greater transparency, including publication of quantities and prices of government purchases, sales of wheat and wheat flour, and quantities and prices of subsidized flatbread across the country has the potential to significantly increase the efficiency of the entire wheat sector. As shown in this paper, Sudan’s wheat policies in recent years, such as increased wheat imports, price subsidies in the wheat value chain, and low prices of flatbread, have in general favored consumers, to the detriment of producers. These interventions in the wheat value chain, especially those related to subsidies on flatbread, have especially large effects on the welfare of urban households, making these policies particularly politically sensitive. However, they have entailed high fiscal costs, threatening macro-economic stability and crowding out other possible investments to promote growth and poverty reduction. Careful analysis and ongoing monitoring of outcomes and new developments will be needed to help guide the important choices ahead.

Papua New Guinea agri-food trade and household consumption trends point towards dietary change and increased overweight and obesity prevalence

Background Papua New Guinea (PNG) experienced positive GDP growth at approximately 4.3% per year during the last decade. With increases in overall wealth within the country, PNG is facing a double burden of malnutrition: comparatively high child stunting rates and a growing overweight and obesity epidemic. We focus on the latter by evaluating trends in agri-food import data from 2001 to 2018 and household consumption data from 2018 and 2009/10. Results The analysis presented in this paper raises three red flags. First, international food import data suggest that the demand for ultra-processed, sugar-sweetened beverages and food have increased substantially over time in PNG. Sugar-sweetened beverages dominated the largest growth in processed food imports, increasing by 23% per capita per year between 2001 and 2018. Second, households across the country with a greater food expenditure on sugar-sweetened beverages have a higher probability of an overweight child (under 5 years old). Last, the probability of soft-drink consumption in PNG increases with greater income acquisition and improved market access. While the price of a soft drink is negatively correlated with the quantity consumed, analysis suggests that total household income has a quantitatively larger (and positive) association with soft drink consumption. Conclusions Taxing (or increasing taxes on) sugar-sweetened beverages may not be a sufficient mechanism to curb overconsumption of soft drinks in PNG. Education and advocacy programs should be fostered that integrate improved dietary information on packaging, as well as greater access to and understanding of nutrition and diet information of common household consumption items. While increases in household income and market access are crucial to economic growth and transformation, PNG’s economic transition must be dovetailed with programs that expand and enhance health and nutrition information and education to improve household consumption decisions and overall household wellbeing.

Poverty, tenure security, and landscape governance: Exploring inextricable interdependencies for science, policy, and action

Countries of the global South have rich natural ecosystems, but many poor people. Africa south of the Sahara, for example, contains about half of the earth’s uncultivated land. Forests cover approximately 22 percent of Latin America. In Central Asian countries, overall pastureland was estimated, 10 years ago, at about half of the total land area (ADB 2010). Four of the world’s 10 largest lakes and 7 of the 10 rivers with the largest catchment areas — including the Amazon, Parana, Nile, Congo, and Niger rivers — are in the global South. These examples represent a small sample of the richness of these natural ecosystems.

Agricultural extension and rural advisory services: What have we learned? What’s next?

Agricultural extension provides the critical connection from agricultural innovation and discovery to durable improvements at scale, as farmers and other actors in the rural economy learn, adapt, and innovate with new technologies and practices. However, lack of capacity and performance of agricultural extension in lower- and middle-income countries is an ongoing concern. Research on agricultural extension and advisory services (in short, extension) has been an integral part of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) since its inception. This brief synthesizes key findings from research funded by and linked to PIM from 2012 to 2021, presenting lessons learned and a vision for the future of extension. A list of all PIM-related extension and advisory services research is provided at the end. Designing and implementing effective provision of extension is complex, and efforts to strengthen extension services often fall into a trap of adopting “best practice” blueprint approaches that are not well-tailored to local conditions. An expansive literature examines the promises and pitfalls of common approaches, including training-and-visit extension systems, farmer field schools, and many others (Anderson and Feder 2004; Anderson et al. 2006; Waddington and White 2014; Scoones and Thompson 2009). To understand extension systems and build evidence for what works and where, the “best-fit” framework, a widely recognized approach developed by Birner and colleagues (2009) and adapted by Davis and Spielman (2017), offers a simple impact chain approach (Figure 1). The framework focuses on a defined set of extension service characteristics that affect performance: governance structures and funding; organizational and management capacities and cultures; methods; and community engagement — all of which are subject to external factors such as the environment, agroecological conditions, and farming-system heterogeneity. To enhance extension performance and, ultimately, a wide range of outcomes and impacts, new and innovative interventions can be applied and adapted within this set of extension characteristics.

Public expenditure’s role in reducing poverty and improving food and nutrition security: Preliminary cross-country insights based on SPEED data

Public expenditures (PE), their sizes, and allocations across sectors, are some of the important instruments for the public sector to contribute toward sustainable development goals (SDGs). However, knowledge gaps remain as to how PEs have actually contributed to key SDG outcomes in the past, including the eradication of poverty and hunger, and the improvement in food and nutrition security in sustainable manners (SDGs 1 and 2). This study aims to partly fill this knowledge gap using the Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development (SPEED data) and various country-level panel data. We find that PEs in different sectors have been significantly associated with key indicators under SDGs 1 and 2. Specifically, greater PEs for agriculture and health sectors have had relatively positive effects on total factor productivity growth in agriculture, reduced consumer food price indices, reduced poverty, reduced stunting, underweight or overweight among children under 5. A greater PE for agriculture has also been weakly associated with enhanced biodiversity. These relationships are observed for a broad class of countries, but somewhat stronger for countries that had been classified as low- or lower-middle-income in 2000. Greater PEs for education and social protection, which have been generally higher than PEs for agriculture and health, have had more mixed effects on these outcomes. While continued analyses are required to better understand the complex linkages between PE and these outcomes, the current study offers useful preliminary insights.

Promise and contradiction: Value chain participation and women's empowerment

With the expansion of agricultural production for the global market, interest among research and development actors in developing more “inclusive” value chains has grown (Stoian et al. 2018a). While mainstream value chain development (VCD) has focused on enhancing the efficiency of processes along the chain, policies increasingly endeavor to address poverty, emphasizing the inclusion of poor and marginalized people in global markets (Bolwig et al. 2010). In recent decades, scholars and development agencies have directed attention toward the “gender gap in agriculture” (Huyer 2016), encompassing, among other things, women’s lesser access to market opportunities and to the benefits from cash crops (Pyburn et al. 2015). As a consequence, agricultural development initiatives increasingly aim to support the engagement of women in agricultural value chains (Sachs 2019). However, while promoting the engagement of women in markets and value chains is becoming entrenched in the global agenda for gender equality (Stoian et al. 2018a), systematic evidence demonstrating causal linkages or laying out a clear theory of change between participation and empowerment remains limited (Said-Allsopp and Tallontire 2014, Johnson et al. 2018).

Subnational public expenditures, short-term household-level welfare, and economic resilience: Evidence from Nigeria

Public expenditures (PE) are critical for key public sector functions that contribute to development and welfare improvements, including the provisions of necessary public goods and the mitigation of market failures. PE in social sectors, such as health, education, and social welfare, and in agriculture have been increasingly recognized as potentially important for income growth, poverty reduction, fostering increased private investment, improved nutritional outcomes, and greater economic resilience. Furthermore, the importance of the impact of subnational PE on these outcomes has also been recognized, as appropriately decentralized PE systems can potentially achieve greater effectiveness by enabling public sector support that is tailored more to local needs. However, direct evidence of these developmental effects of decentralized PE in developing countries like Nigeria has been relatively limited. This study attempts to fill this knowledge gap by estimating the effects of shares of total subnational PE for agriculture, health, education, and social welfare, as well as PE size, on household-level outcomes using nationally-representative panel household data and both local government area and higher state-level PE data for Nigeria. We find that greater shares of total PE for agriculture, health, and social welfare, conditional on PE size, generally have positive effects on consumption, poverty reduction, and non-farm business capital investments. A greater share of total PE for agriculture benefits a broader range of outcomes than do greater shares of total PE for health and social welfare. These include improving certain nutritional outcomes, like household dietary diversity across seasons, and economic flexibility between farm and non-farm activities, which may be particularly important for building resilience in today’s rapidly changing socioeconomic environment due to shocks, including COVID19. Such multi-dimensional benefits of greater PE for agriculture are particularly worthy of attention in countries like Nigeria, which have historically allocated a lower share of total PE to agriculture than to health and other social welfare sectors and a lower share of total PE to agriculture compared to that allocated to agriculture in similar countries in Africa and elsewhere.

Understanding characteristics, causes, and consequences of migration: Contributions from the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets

It is estimated that nearly one in seven people — more than 1 billion in total — are classified as migrants in national statistics. Of these, about 763 million are estimated to be internal migrants; the remaining 281 million are international migrants (International Organization for Migration 2021). Migration is an intrinsic part of the development process, representing one of the greatest opportunities to facilitate economic and social advancement in developing countries. Understanding how different types of individuals and households perceive these opportunities and overcome related constraints, and how these change over time, is of key interest. At the same time, migration presents one of the world’s biggest challenges, requiring adjustments by both sending and hosting communities, and understanding those adjustments is a priority. The CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) has undertaken more than 40 studies designed to explore the causes and consequences of internal and international migration. In aggregate, the studies help us understand what motivates people to migrate and what factors impinge on their ability to do so. These studies focused on the relationship of migration with rural transformation, gender, youth, climate change, and social protection and cut across the whole PIM research portfolio. This brief synthesizes findings from this research in an attempt to present a more complete picture. While there is a vast literature on migration external to PIM and CGIAR, the results of the PIM investiga-tions constitute valuable inputs into national pol-icies and programs designed to foster economic and social development while maximizing the benefits and reducing the risks of migration.

Annual report 2020: CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets

In 2020, PIM findings contributed to seed policies in Nepal and Uganda, Malawi’s extension strategy and approval of insect-resistant cotton, a nationwide program aimed at improving the effectiveness of public service delivery in Uganda, social protection programs in Egypt, and school gardens for better nutrition in Papua New Guinea. At the global level, PIM research was used to shape strategic decisions of organizations such as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, GIZ, the Inter-American Development Bank, the UK Government's Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, the World Bank and the World Health Organization. PIM tools were incorporated in universities’ curricula in India and South Africa. Examples of PIM innovations scaled up by partners in 2020 are private sector seed marketing in Ethiopia, picture-based insurance in Ethiopia, India and Kenya, and tools for inclusive governance of natural resources in India and Peru.

A review of evidence on gender equality, women’s empowerment, and food systems

Achieving gender equality and women’s empowerment in food systems can result in greater food security and better nutrition, and in more just, resilient, and sustainable food systems for all. This paper uses a scoping review to assess the current evidence on pathways between gender equality, women’s empowerment, and food systems. The paper uses an adaptation of the food systems framework to organize the evidence and identify where evidence is strong, and where gaps remain. Results show strong evidence on women’s differing access to resources, shaped and reinforced by contextual social gender norms, and on links between women’s empowerment and maternal education and important outcomes, such as nutrition and dietary diversity. However, evidence is limited on issues such as gender considerations in food systems for women in urban areas and in aquaculture value chains, best practices and effective pathways for engaging men in the process of women’s empowerment in food systems, and for addressing issues related to migration, crises, and indigenous food systems. And while there are gender informed evaluation studies that examine the effectiveness of gender- and nutrition- sensitive agricultural programs, evidence to indicate the long-term sustainability of such impacts remains limited. The paper recommends keys areas for investment: improving women’s leadership and decision-making in food systems, promoting equal and positive gender norms, improving access to resources, and building cross-contextual research evidence on gender and food systems.

Papua New Guinea agri-food trade trends: Dietary change and obesity

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented a unique challenge to governments across the globe, reinforcing the need to improve understanding of domestic and international trade trends to provide more informed options for response. During the last several months, IFPRI has been analyzing a variety of Papua New Guinea (PNG) national and global datasets with the goal of expanding analytical tools to evaluate potential production shortfalls and food price shocks, and their associated impacts on household food security and livelihoods. This research focuses on agri-food import and export trends during the last two decades to better evaluate potential changes in related import demand and export potential in PNG. In doing so, this research informs an upcoming economy-wide multi market model analysis that will model a variety of potential shocks to household welfare to identify policies to manage potential ensuing food security threats. PNG’s growth in international agri-food trade (both export and import) will continue to be important to overall food security outcomes among rural and urban households. Rural households that produce key export cash-crops (e.g., coffee, cocoa, palm oil) depend on the cash economy to supplement overall food consumption, while urban households depend on rice and other agri-food imports (as well as domestic goods) for consumption. Agri-food imports are also contributing to important increases in the availability of protein-dense foods, with the value of poultry imports growing, on average, 30 percent per capita per year from 2001 – 2016. Although PNG’s agri-food import data suggest a greater demand for higher value food items such as animal-sourced foods, the total import value of ultra-processed foods, such as sugary drinks, are also increasing rapidly within PNG. The profitability and growth of agricultural exports and imports are driven by several factors, including levels of public investment in infrastructure, weather and climate shocks, security and political stability, and conditions in the world market. Government economic policies, including exchange rate, trade and price policies, also heavily influence agricultural trade. to promote and facilitate domestic movement of goods, as well as macro-economic policies that influence the relative price of tradable to non-tradable goods (the real exchange rate) should be managed appropriately to support and incentivize greater agri-food production and trade. These policies could also be paired with an expanded set of education programs that integrate nutrition-sensitive information to address current increases in demand and consumption of high-saturated and sugary processed goods, of which total import values are rapidly increasing in PNG. Finally, a greater portfolio of organized databases, analytical tools and resources are warranted to facilitate real-time analysis that can inform key development investments and initiatives.

The short-run economic costs of COVID-19 in developing countries in 2020: A synthesis of results from a multi-country modeling exercise

As COVID-19 spread across the globe in early 2020, governments had to make difficult choices to balance the socioeconomic costs of social distancing and lockdown measures, on the one hand, and the human costs of increased morbidity and mortality of an unchecked pandemic, on the other. The challenge was particularly daunting for developing countries with their often illequipped and underfunded health systems coupled with general skepticism about the effectiveness of economic restrictions to curb viral spread, especially in densely populated informal urban communities (The Economist 2020). Poorer developing country populations also tend to be less resilient to income shocks, while the social protection measures needed to mitigate against income losses are costly. With developing country governments already heavily indebted before the pandemic (Onyekwena and Ekeruche 2019), and with further anticipated losses in tax revenues due to COVID-related economic restrictions, their ability to finance palliative measures without sacrificing much-needed, longer-term public investments has remained a major concern.

2021 Global report on food crises: Joint analysis for better decisions

Founded by the European Union, FAO and WFP at the 2016 World Humanitarian Summit, the Global Network Against Food Crises is an alliance of humanitarian and development actors working together to prevent, prepare for, and respond to food crises and support the Sustainable Development Goal to End Hunger (SDG 2). It seeks to reduce vulnerabilities associated with acute hunger; achieve food security and improved nutrition; and promote sustainable agriculture and food systems, using a ‘3x3 approach.’ This involves working at the global, regional and national levels to support partnerships within existing structures and to improve advocacy, decision-making, and programming along the following three dimensions: Dimension 1 | Understanding food crises The work within this dimension aims to build greater consensus and promote evidencebased food security and nutrition analyses and reporting in order to strengthen the collection, quality and coverage of the food security and nutrition data and analysis, and inform decision-making and action. This will be achieved through the contribution to the Global Report on Food Crises, a unique ‘global public good’ under the coordination and leadership of the Food Security Information Network (FSIN), as well as the coordination, synthesis, and publication of technical analyses, including forward-looking analyses of food crises. Dimension 2 | Leveraging strategic investments in food security, nutrition and agriculture The work within this dimension aims to advocate for ‘fit for purpose’ financing that draws on the full range of resource flows (public and private, international and domestic) to better prepare for, prevent and respond to food crises. It seeks to improve coherence between humanitarian, development and peace actions (the HDP ‘nexus’) to build resilience to shocks and promote longer-term self-reliance. Activities include a strong focus on supporting capacity strengthening of country-level actors and institutions, as well as strengthening coordination at the regional level to ensure that investments are focused on the right place, at the right time. Dimension 3 | Going beyond food The work within this dimension aims to foster political uptake and coordination across clusters/sectors to address the underlying multi-dimensional drivers of food crises including environmental, political, economic, societal and security risk factors. It seeks to improve understanding and promote linkages between the different dimensions of fragility through knowledge sharing, advocacy and integrated responses.

Bragging, shirking, and hiding: Spousal disagreement among Ugandan maize farmers

To gain a better understanding of intrahousehold bargaining processes, surveys increasingly collect data from co-heads individually. Answers provided by spouses on the same set of questions often differ substantially, alternately attributed to measurement error, poor framing within the cultural context that leads to systematic biases, or other common challenges associated with surveys. However, recent studies suggest that differences in responses from co-heads may also be caused by spouses strategically hiding information from each other. Using detailed data on a large sample of monogamous smallholder maize-farming households in eastern Uganda, we document response patterns from household co-heads related to decision-making, labor time, and sales of farm output. We ask each spouse questions about themselves, but also about their spouse, and compare responses. We also implement two interventions to test if such spousal disagreement in reporting can be reduced by increasing cooperation between spouses and reducing information asymmetries.

Cross-cutting gender research and coordination: Highlights, lessons learned, and priorities for One CGIAR

At the start of CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) Phase 2 in 2017, and later during the priority-setting round in 2019, each of the PIM research areas (‘flagships’) formulated key research questions they aimed to answer and identified theories of change and pathways to achieve impact. In this series, we share highlights of what we have learned and achieved and suggest areas to be explored in the future.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: December 2020

Prices of major food staples in Kokopo, Lae and Port Moresby have remained broadly stable over 2019 and 2020. The exceptions are prices of sweet potatoes and cooking bananas in Port Moresby, which declined between mid-2019 and the third quarter of 2020. Per kilogram prices of vitamin-dense foods such as broccoli, carrot and karakap are typically higher than prices of starchy staples. Prices of both carrots and broccoli in Lae rose in mid-2020, but have declined in the last quarter of 2020 and October prices were close to their price levels in late 2019. More consistent and timely price data collection and database management is necessary for informative food market analysis. Price data reported in this bulletin by crop and market is limited to 10 observations (at most) out of a possible of 24 fortnights in 2019. The rate of price data reporting has been lower in 2020, in part due to Covid-19 related disruptions.

Effects of COVID-19 and other shocks on Papua New Guinea’s food economy: A multi-market simulation analysis

Understanding how the Papua New Guinea (PNG) agricultural economy and associated household consumption is affected by climate, market and other shocks requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. We have built the model to be flexible in order to explore different potential scenarios and then identify where and how households are most affected by an unexpected shock. The model is designed using region and country-level data sources that inform the structure of the PNG food economy, allowing for a data-driven evaluation of potential impacts on agricultural production, food prices, and food consumption. Thus, as PNG confronts different unexpected challenges within its agricultural economy, the model presented in this paper can be adapted to evaluate the potential impact and necessary response by geographic region of an unexpected economic shock on the food economy of the country. We present ten simulations modeling the effects of various shocks on PNG’s economy. The first group of scenarios consider the effects of shocks to production of specific agricultural commodities including: 1) a decrease on maize and sorghum output due to Fall Armyworm; 2) reduction in pig production due to a potential outbreak of African Swine Fever; 3) decline in sweet potato production similar to the 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate shock; and 4) a decline in poultry production due to COVID-19 restrictions on domestic mobility and trade. A synopsis of this report, which focuses on the COVID-19 related shocks on the PNG economy is also available online (Diao et al., 2020).1 The second group of simulations focus on COVID-19-related changes in international prices, increased marketing costs in international and domestic trade, and reductions in urban incomes. We simulate a 1) 30 percent increase in the price of imported rice, 2) a 30 percent decrease in world prices for major PNG agricultural exports, 3) higher trade transaction costs due to restrictions on the movement of people (traders) and goods given social distancing measures of COVID-19, and 4) potential economic recession causing urban household income to fall by 10 percent. Finally, the last simulation considers the combined effect of all COVID-19 related shocks combining the above scenarios into a single simulation. A key result of the analysis is that urban households, especially the urban poor, are particularly vulnerable to shocks related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Lower economic activity in urban areas (assumed to reduce urban non-agricultural incomes by 10 percent), increases in marketing costs due to domestic trade disruptions, and 30 percent higher imported rice prices combine to lower urban incomes by almost 15 percent for both poor and non-poor urban households. Urban poor households, however, suffer the largest drop in calorie consumption - 19.8 percent, compared to a 15.8 percent decline for urban non-poor households. Rural households are much less affected by the Covid-19 related shocks modeled in these simulations. Rural household incomes, affected mainly by reduced urban demand and market disruptions, fall by only about four percent. Nonetheless, calorie consumption for the rural poor and non-poor falls by 5.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively.

Can call detail records provide insights into women’s empowerment? A case study from Uganda

We use CDRs of mobile phone users in Uganda combined with data from a phone survey to train machine-learning models to predict the sex of the mobile phone user and several indicators of economic empowerment such as ownership of a house and land, occupation, and decision-making over household income. The most accurate of the models predicts the sex of the mobile phone user with 78% accuracy. The different indicators of economic empowerment are predicted with accuracies ranging from 57% to 61%. We also predict users’ sex and economic empowerment jointly. However, when we predict economic empowerment and then the sex of the user, we achieve high accuracy rates ranging from 81% to 87%. Mobile phone usage data hold potential for gender research although they are not without limitations.

Timing, targets, and transparency: Foreign and domestic resource mobilization to combat COVID-19

As the COVID-19 pandemic began spreading globally in March, national governments and the international donor community mobilized quickly to cushion the impact. The speed, uncertainty, and potential severity of the crisis meant that many disbursement approvals occurred faster than usual, and it was difficult to gain a clear picture of where money was going, how different donors were targeting their resources, and how effectively such resources were being utilized. Many governments also began establishing their own funding baskets to respond to COVID-19, often by encouraging donations from politicians, celebrities, businesspeople, and everyday citizens, sometimes without full transparency.

Effects of COVID-19 on Papua New Guinea’s food economy: A multi-market simulation analysis

Developments in the agricultural economy of Papua New Guinea have major impacts on household food consumption decisions. A household’s ability to produce and sell food is affected by climate and associated agricultural potential, market opportunities (domestic, import and export) and unexpected shocks. Each of these factors affects the overall food system, thereby influencing production and consumption of all food products and the markets in which they are traded. The COVID-19 pandemic has presented a challenge far more complex than an agricultural production shock, such as those due to El Niño or pests. Rather than directly affecting agricultural output and rural household welfare, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected economies across the globe via trade disruptions (logistic challenges; international trade barriers), social distancing policies (domestic food market and nonessential business closures), and transportation restrictions (road closures; air travel cancellations). The measures aimed to curb the spread of COVID-19 have affected household incomes via urban job losses, reduced market interaction, and dramatic changes in world food prices. While rice prices have increased, luxury food prices, such as for chocolate (i.e. cocoa), have decreased. PNG’s unique and highly varied biophysical landscape has shaped agricultural production patterns, outcomes, and livelihoods for centuries. Understanding how the PNG agrifood economy and resulting household consumption is affected by COVID-19 therefore requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded.

Gender and rural transformation

Rural transformation is central to the broader structural transformation process taking place in developing countries — fueled by the globalization of value chains, changing food systems, new technologies, conflict and displacement, and climate change, among other factors. Rural transformation refers to the process whereby rural economies diversify into nonfarm activities, agriculture becomes more capital-intensive and commercially oriented, and linkages with neighboring towns and cities grow and deepen (Berdegué, Rosada, and Bebbington 2014). It can bring about fundamental changes in the way businesses and households organize, such as the commercialization and diversification of agricultural production; increased agricultural productivity; migration; and the emergence of a broader set of rural livelihood activities.

Methods for measuring women's empowerment

Women’s empowerment is of paramount importance for multiple development goals. However, it is much easier to discuss the importance of empowerment than it is to define the methods and tools needed to measure it. This requires research focused on the conceptual understanding of how we should measure women’s empowerment, in a variety of facets, and the creation of tools and methods for doing so.

Enabling or enfeebling the private sector? Government policy responses and business initiatives during COVID-19

The economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic — at the global, country, and household levels — are dramatic, plunging the world into a recession not experienced in more than a half century (World Bank 2020a). Unlike other recent global crises, such as the food price crisis (2007–2008) or the financial crisis (2008), the pandemic has affected businesses across all industries and sectors, from agriculture to manufacturing to tourism, services, and mining. At the same time, it is spurring new innovations in response to public health needs and technological advances. This policy brief uses data from the COVID-19 Policy Response (CPR) Portal to examine trends in how government COVID-19 response policies have hindered or promoted the private sector, as well as the private sector’s role in combatting the pandemic. Comparing these policies and responses can provide useful insights into best practices for balancing the twin goals of economic and public health during a crisis.

Rice price shocks and household welfare in Papua New Guinea

Rice prices in international markets rose sharply between December 2019 and May 2020, increasing, for example, by 25 percent in Thailand and 30 percent in Vietnam. Given that essentially all of the rice supply for Papua New Guinea (PNG) comes from rice imports, the domestic price of rice in PNG is likely to rise substantially in coming months. Although PNG’s food economy is dominated by domestically produced starchy staples, rice imports have almost doubled from 167,000 tons annually in 2005 to an estimated 300,000 tons in 2020. This note examines rice consumption patterns and international trade trends for PNG to shed light on the potential impacts in rural and urban PNG of disruptions to rice imports. Our model simulations indicate that a 30 percent rise in the world price of rice would be expected to decrease the rice consumption of poor households by 17.3 percent. Under this scenario, consumers in poor households, which are those in the bottom 40 percent of the household expenditure distribution in PNG, would suffer a net welfare loss of USD 23.0 million, equivalent to a 1.6 percent decrease in a per capita daily income of one US dollar.

Agri-food trade trends in Papua New Guinea: Reflections on COVID-19 policies and dietary change

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented a unique challenge to governments across the globe, reinforcing the need to improve understanding of domestic and international trade trends to provide more informed options for policy response. Papua New Guinea’s growing international trade in food and other agricultural products will continue to be important to overall food security outcomes among rural and urban households in the country. Rural households that produce key export cash-crops, such as coffee, cocoa, or palm oil, depend on the cash economy to supplement their food consumption, while urban households depend on rice and other agri-food imports, as well as domestic goods, for consumption. This project note focuses on trends in agrifood imports and exports during the last two decades to better evaluate potential changes in import demand and export potential for PNG. In doing so, it informs an upcoming economy-wide multi-market model analysis that will evaluate a variety of potential shocks to PNG’s agri-food system on household welfare in order to identify policies to manage potential food security threats. The COVID-19 pandemic is one of many diverse shocks that may adversely affect the economy of PNG over the next decade. The expansion of a portfolio of organized databases, analytical tools, and policy resources, such as the multimarket model, is warranted to facilitate real-time policy analyses to inform key development investments and initiatives.

Global trends in extension provision, staffing, and methods

This chapter is a landscape view of extension globally. It compares the recent status to the situation several decades ago, when earlier global assessments were conducted. In particular, we look at best-fit characteristics, including legal status and governance of extension providers, staffing, and advisory methods and clientele. We also look at trends and recent developments using the global assessments and recent literature. There have been several major efforts to collect worldwide extension data. Surveys were conducted in 1975 and 1980 by the University of Illinois (Swanson and Rassi 1981). Follow-up work was conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 1988–1989, and by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Global Forum for Rural Advisory Services (GFRAS) in 2009–2012. However, there were never any narrative reports produced or much analysis conducted of this data collection effort. Swanson and Rassi (1981) and FAO (1991) were simply directories. GFRAS (2012) is a database; the only report produced was Swanson and Davis (2014), which was a 14-page document giving some key details on the status of extension by region and with a table providing numbers of agents.

Annual report 2019: CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets

In 2019, research conducted under the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) informed policies and investments of governments, development agencies, non-governmental organizations and private companies in Africa, Asia and Latin America. PIM contributed to investment plans and policies in Afghanistan, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Rwanda; scaling up of digital advisory services in Ethiopia and of payments for agrobiodiversity conservation in Peru; biotechnology advances in Nigeria; renewal of community forest concessions in Guatemala; and improved rangeland governance in Ethiopia and Tanzania. At the global level, PIM research was used to shape the European Union biofuel policy as well as strategic decisions of several organizations such as the Asian Development Bank, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, CGIAR, UK’s Department for International Development, the Inter-American Development Bank, the International Fund for Agricultural Development, USAID and the World Health Organization. An external review of the outcomes of PIMsupported foresight modeling work was completed.

Effects of public expenditures on agriculture at subnational levels on households’ welfare and economic resilience in Nigeria

Agricultural development has long been considered an important driver of overall economic development in developing countries such as Nigeria. Whether increasing public expenditures on agriculture (PEA) can directly improve broad dimensions of household well-being has continued to be debated. In addition, there has been growing interest in the economic flexibility of households to switch between nonfarm and farming activities. Such flexibility can potentially enhance the resilience of households to shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic in today’s rapidly changing socioeconomic environments. Direct evidence of the impact of PEA on broad development outcomes is also important in informing regional initiatives aiming to use PEA as an instrument for overall food security enhancement and poverty reduction in Africa. Using state- and local government area (LGA)-level PEA figures and household data in Nigeria, this study aims to provide initial evidence at the household level in Nigeria. The findings suggest that greater PEA shares have positive effects on various development outcomes at the household level, including consumption, poverty reduction, nonfarm capital investments, and household dietary diversity. The findings also suggest that greater PEA shares are likely to help farm households enhance their economic flexibility. These findings are consistent with the hypotheses of positive linkages between PEA and agricultural outcomes, and linkages between agricultural and nonagricultural outcomes, often advocated in the literature. PEA should be increased by increasing its share of total public expenditures through conscious efforts to reallocate existing resources, rather than trying to increase it by increasing the overall size of public expenditures. Furthermore, it remains important to identify the appropriate sources (for example, spending by LGA or state) and types of PEA (for example, recurrent or capital spending) for particular development outcomes.

IFPRI’s COVID-19 Policy Response Portal: Identifying trends and implications for food systems

Developing countries have employed a wide range of policies to control COVID-19 and relieve economic stress. These responses continue to evolve, and different actions targeting the same problem vary widely in approach and impact. For instance, to maintain food supplies, some countries have provided direct support to farmers, some have imposed food export bans, and some do both. In addition, many responses overlap and interact, so their cumulative impacts can be difficult to interpret in isolation. For example, borders may be kept open for transporting food, but stringent screening and quarantine measures may create significant delays that deter truckers from making the trip. Providing inputs to farmers may do little for food accessibility if markets are shut down or have severely limited operating hours.

Agrifood market participation, household economies of specialization and diversification: Evidence from Vietnam

Despite the growth of agrifood markets, and gradual structural transformation, smallholders persist in Asia. Such patterns are at odds with the views that market growth should encourage more specialization whereby smallholders’ transition to either larger farmers or specialized non-farm households. Using the panel household data in Vietnam, this study investigates how participation in agrifood markets affect smallholder households’ economies of scope (EOS) in diversifying into agriculture and non-agricultural income-earning activities. We find that, greater agrifood market participation proxied by the increased food purchase generally increases EOS between agriculture and non-agricultural activities at the household level. Moreover, it leads to greater labor productivity in agriculture, and also increases female household members’ diversifications into both agriculture and non-agricultural income-earning activities. These effects are relatively stronger and more consistent than conventional indicators of agrifood product sales or proximity to the market. The results shed more light on how exactly smallholders in Vietnam persist in the face of agrifood market growth, and what kind of their relations with such a growing market can be promoted in ways that enhance their livelihoods in the short- to medium- terms.

A database user manual for SPEED: Statistics on public expenditures for economic development

This document provides an overview of the coverage of the new release of the 2019 version of the Statistics on Public Expenditures for Economic Development (SPEED) database. Key issues related to currency redenomination and changes in definition of sector expenditure and how they are addressed to ensure cross-country and intertemporal comparability are presented. The database covers 164 countries from 1980 to 2017 for eleven sectors: agriculture, communication, education, defense, health, mining, social protection, fuel and energy, transport, transport and communication (as a group) and other. Indicators reported include percentage of sector expenditure in total expenditure, percentage of total expenditure to total gross domestic product, and per capita sector and total expenditure in constant prices. Significant effort has been put into recording the sources, methods, and issues related to each individual data point so as to allow for easy replication or verification of any data value.

How do perceptions of relative poverty affect women's empowerment? Evidence from Papua New Guinea

How do perceptions of one’s relative economic status affect gender attitudes, including support for women’s economic participation and involvement in decision-making? We conducted a 2018 survey experiment with female and male adults in approximately 1,000 households in Papua New Guinea. Employing an established survey treatment to subtly alter respondents’ perception of their relative economic well-being, we find that increased feelings of relative poverty make both men and women significantly more likely to support girls’ schooling and women’s paid employment, suggesting that relative economic insecurity can prompt support for women’s economic participation. However, increased feelings of relative poverty may trigger greater intra-household tension. While increased perceptions of relative poverty cause women to want more household decision-making authority, men’s attitudes toward women’s roles in decision-making are unchanged. Results underscore the complicated nature of gender attitudes, and how support for women’s economic participation may rise without simultaneous increases in women’s agency in decision-making.

How do perceptions of relative poverty affect women's empowerment? Evidence from Papua New Guinea

How do perceptions of one's relative economic status affect gender attitudes, including support for women's economic participation and their involvement in decision-making within their household and community? Increased feelings of relative economic vulnerability may lead to greater intra-household tension under a scenario of women seeking greater advancement economically and socially. In this instance, women’s empowerment could be perceived as a threat in a context of limited economic opportunity. On the other hand, to the extent that empowering women can improve household welfare, feeling economically vulnerable could motivate more egalitarian gender attitudes with respect to economic participation. For example, women's labor force participation brings income into the household, and women's involvement in decision-making can facilitate more efficient land management (Dillon and Voena, 2018; Goldstein and Udry, 2008; Seymour, 2017) and bring about better health (Beegle et al., 2001; Dinçer et al., 2014; Sraboni et al., 2014), nutrition (Ekbrand and Halleröd, 2018; Imai et al., 2014; Lépine and Strobl, 2013; Smith and Haddad, 2001; Smith et al., 2003), and education (Qian, 2008) outcomes for household members. As one of the first papers to investigate the impact of perceptions of relative poverty on gender attitudes, a December 2019 IFPRI Discussion Paper by Katrina Kosec, Cecilia Hyunjung Mo, Emily Schmidt, and Jie Song shows that perceptions of relative poverty translate into greater support for girls’ schooling and women’s engagement in paid employment. In other words, relative economic insecurity can prompt support for women's economic participation. However, this support is not necessarily accompanied by greater support for women’s involvement in community and intra-household decision-making. Feeling relatively poor triggered an increased desire among women to have decision-making authority within the household; however, there was no change in men’s attitudes about women’s role in decision-making. The paper underscores the complicated nature of gender attitudes, and how support for women's economic participation may rise without simultaneous increases in women's agency in decision-making.

Women’s control over income: Implications for women’s empowerment and the agricultural sector

Across Africa, rural transformation is taking place, and agriculture remains a central driver of that transformation. Agricultural production is the most important sector in most African countries, averaging 24 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for the region. Agribusiness supplies, processing, marketing, and retailing add about 20 percent of GDP (O’Sullivan et al. 2014). Urbanization and rapidly changing consumption patterns have fueled a sharp shift in diets beyond grains into nongrain foods, such as dairy, fish, meat, vegetables, fruit, and tubers, and heavily into processed foods. In any scenario, agriculture will continue to play a greater role than has been the case in other transformations around the world. Although the development literature contains analyses of rural agricultural transformation and what it means for youth, the gender dimensions are lacking. It is critical to ensure that women receive and control an equitable share of the benefits of the rural transformation processes that are occurring in various forms and at various speeds throughout Africa.