Climate resilient agriculture

Rapid assessment of 2026 El Nino in PNG: Observations during a fresh produce value chain study

The National Agriculture Research Institute (NARI) and the International Food Policy Research Institute
(IFPRI) conducted a detailed fresh produce value chain survey along the Highlands Highway from August through September 2026 to investigate challenges and opportunities for growing the fresh vegetable sector in Papua New Guinea (Figure 1 displays survey areas). While preparing for the survey, PNG stakeholders requested that the survey team collect data on evolving conditions due to the severe El Niño predicted for 2026-2027. After a variety of stakeholder consultations, a survey module was designed to allow survey supervisors to provide open-text observations of community conditions related to El Niño based on 6 indicators. The six indicators had accompanying question prompts for supervisors to consider as they observed each theme in the survey communities, respectively

Anticipating the 2026/2027 El Niño shock in Papua New Guinea: An assessment of rural household vulnerability from the 2023 Rural Household Survey

- PNG is entering a period of elevated climate and food-security risk. The developing 2026 El Niño raises the likelihood of drought and agricultural stress, with frost an additional concern in the Highlands. Early reports of falling water levels and frost damage underscore the need for preparedness. Impacts may persist well into 2027, since historically El Niño drought conditions are typically followed by flooding from La Niña climate patterns.
- Households already rely on coping strategies when food and livelihoods are under pressure. The 2023 PNG RHS Report shows that households respond to shocks through mechanisms such as relying on wantok networks, consuming cheaper foods, and increasing labor supply. These strategies provide important short-term support but may be insufficient during severe or prolonged climate shock and can carry longer-term welfare costs.
- Agriculture is a key pathway from climate shocks to welfare. Own production provided 54 percent of food consumed, compared with 38 percent purchased and 7 percent from gifts or transfers. Drought or frost can reduce food availability while increasing market dependence and exposure to higher prices.
- Vulnerability is concentrated but extends beyond the Highlands. Highland areas warrant particular attention because drought and frost can coincide, but climate impacts can also affect other regions through agriculture, livestock, water, transport, and markets.
- Targeting should combine climate exposure with household vulnerability. Priority areas should reflect current climate conditions, drought and frost risk, agricultural conditions, food insecurity, livelihoods, assets, and market access, followed by rapid verification. Continued monitoring of food markets is essential. Because many households rely on purchased food, changes in food prices, market availability, and access should be monitored closely as El Niño conditions develop. Market monitoring can help identify emerging food-security pressures, inform targeting, and determine when and where assistance or other interventions should be activated.
- The immediate priority is anticipatory action. Government and development partners should prepare food assistance, agricultural and livestock protection, market monitoring, logistics, and delivery systems, backed by flexible financing that can be activated when agreed triggers are reached.
- The immediate priority is anticipatory action. Government and development partners should prepare food assistance, agricultural and livestock protection, market monitoring, logistics, and delivery systems, backed by flexible financing that can be activated when agreed triggers are reached.
- The 2023 PNG-RHS provides a foundation for improved climate-risk targeting. Linking household data with rainfall, temperature, drought, NDVI, elevation, agricultural, and market data can improve identification of areas where climate stress is most likely to translate into welfare losses and strengthen anticipatory action.

The gendered effects of rainfall shocks on stunting: Evidence from Papua New Guinea

Rainfall fluctuations significantly reduce welfare for poor rural households in low- and middle-income countries dependent on rainfed agriculture for consumption, and the effects of these shocks can be borne disproportionately by vulnerable household members, particularly children and girls. We present new evidence around the effects of rainfall fluctuations on child anthropometric status in Papua New Guinea, an understudied context characterized by some of the highest stunting rates in the world. We show that negative fluctuations in rainfall within the first 12 months of life lead to a reduction in height-for-age and weight-for-age (though not stunting), but this effect is observed only for girls.

Creating a taro yield emulator and using it to study climate change impact on taro in Papua New Guinea

This paper develops a taro yield emulator to assess climate change impacts on taro production in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The emulator uses a fixed-effects polynomial regression trained on DSSAT simulations to capture non-linear, stage-specific responses of taro yields to rainfall and temperature. Historical MSWX weather and future climates from CMIP6/ISIMIP3b and a large MIT-IGSM/AgERA5 sample are used to drive the emulator and assess changes in average yields, yield variability, and the frequency of low-yield years across PNG. Our analysis shows that taro appears to be sensitive to both low- and high-rainfall levels during particular phases of growth and is sensitive to heat during particular phases, as well.

Our visit to farmers fields in the Markham Valley along with discussions with experts at GrowPNG in Lae, NARI, and PNG University of Technology in Lae alerted us to the fact that drought was a serious problem for taro, but the model revealed the additional issues with high rainfall and high temperature, along with the additional information about the months that were particularly important for determining the degree of damage that adverse weather might do to yields.

National-average yield changes by mid-century under high-emissions scenarios are projected to be small based on the median projections across climate models, however one of the climate models projects a much larger temperature increase relative to the other models, and for that climate model, the yield reduction is around 9% on average.

Preferences for ecosystem payment programs in Papua New Guinea

We evaluate forest landholders’ preferences to enter a hypothetical Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) contract (i.e., voluntary carbon credit contract) and assess the relative importance of different program attributes that influence forest landholder preference for such contracts.
When evaluating the attractiveness of PES contracts for forest landholders, analysis suggests that on average, forest landholders are not inclined to enter a PES contract. However, when evaluating differences among households, a variety of characteristics shape the willingness to accept a PES contract, including:
 Landholders that are aware of climate change impacts and those from communities that previously participated in forest protection programs are more likely to accept a PES contract.
 Households that use forested land for commercial logging or hunting grounds are more inclined to accept a PES contract, viewing these contracts as an opportunity to protect forest goods and services.
 Households that rely on forested land for timber harvesting for personal building purposes are less likely to join a PES program, viewing contracts as restrictive to personal land use needs.
When assessing different levels of contract attributes (e.g., payment amount, forest area requirement, and contract length), analysis suggests that forest landholders are more likely to accept a contract that:
 Offers higher financial incentives
 Requires half of their forested land to be under contract (compared to all of their forested land).
On average, forest landholders require an additional annual compensation of $39.07 USD (152 PGK) per hectare to accept PES contracts that require full forested land preservation compared to preserving half of their forested land.

Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea

In this paper we present a brief summary of recent historical climate of Papua New Guinea (PNG), finding that rainfall has been increasing greatly compared to pre-1995 levels, but that temperature has only been rising at a moderate rate. We then examine the 5 climate models used in this study from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) / ISIMIP / CMIP3b, discovering one – IPSL – which best reflects the climate trends noted in PNG since 1995. The climate model projections show that temperature changes in PNG are expected to be less than most other places in the world and precipitation changes in PNG are projected to be higher than most other places in the world. Despite noting that IPSL seems to best represent climate changes observed thus far, we use all 5 climate models in the DSSAT crop model for taro, investigating how each climate model will lead to changes in taro yields at each half-degree pixel. In the aggregate, we find that the IPSL model leads to the greatest projected reduction in taro yield at -6.4% for the nation, with Southern region projected to have greater than 10% yield reduction for taro. Across the 5 climate models, the median across model results suggest only a 1.6% yield reduction, while the most optimistic model projects a 4.4% gain. Because of uncertainty across climate models and different impacts across regions, as well as potentially increasing climate variability which would lead to more extreme events including droughts and floods, we recommend developing a suite of options to help farmers navigate future climate uncertainty. For example, developing and testing crop varieties that would offer better yields whether the future is wetter or drier, as well as varieties that are less sensitive to temperature extremes. These could include new varieties of taro but might also include alternative crops and farming techniques designed to protect the plants during ad-verse climate events.

‘Gold runs through these trees’: Preferences for ecosystems payment programs in Papua New Guinea

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Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs (such as REDD+ and voluntary carbon credit programs) have been designed to provide improved forest governance, reduced carbon emissions and diversified income sources for forest communities. However, recent evaluations of REDD+ projects across diverse countries have shown mixed results. In 2022, the government of Papua New Guinea put a moratorium on voluntary carbon credit programs due to inadequately specified processes on contract design and targeting, resulting in ongoing deforestation and lack of transparent remuneration in participating communities under select programs. As the country reassesses how to engage in voluntary carbon credit programs, this study aims to inform the design of PES programs tailored to meet the needs of forest landholders. Using recently collected rural household survey data, we evaluate the unique characteristics that are correlated with forest-owning households’ likelihood of accepting a PES contract. The discrete choice experiments included in the survey, and complementary focus group discussions suggest that forest landholders prefer PES contracts with higher financial incentives and lower land area commitments, requiring an additional $39.07 per hectare per year to preserve all forested land compared to committing half of their forested land to a PES contract. Other factors, such as household size, the use of forest land for timber production and commercial logging, ongoing forest preservation activities within a community and market access also influence respondents’ preferences for PES contracts.

Papua New Guinea Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Policy Support Program

In Papua New Guinea (PNG), more than 80 percent of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods, with a vast majority working as smallholder farmers. Recognizing the need to revitalize and transform its agriculture sector, PNG’s government has set ambitious growth targets for agricultural exports and domestic agricultural production. It considers strategic investment in agricultural research and food security fundamental to overall economic growth and structural transformation.

The Papua New Guinea Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Policy Support Program (PNG-AFNP), supported by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) through the Australian High Commission (AHC) in Port Moresby, and the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), will support PNG’s forward-looking strategy for economic growth and transformation through data-driven policy analysis, capability development, and strategic partnerships to inform policy dialogue and investment opportunities.