Food security and nutrition

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: April 2024

Price trends of Q1 of 2024 (January-March)
The price of sweet potato in lowland markets of Port Moresby, Lae and Kokopo is more than double the cost in highland markets of Goroka and Banz. The price of imported rice remained stable across all markets, except in Banz where a 1 kg bag of rice decreased by 18 percent between January and March, 2024. Prices of vegetables in Goroka market decreased on average by 13 percent (except aibika and pakchoi) between January and March. Prices of all vegetables in Port Moresby increased on average by 56 percent between January and March, 2024. Fruits such as pawpaw and pineapple had mixed price trends across market. Pineapple increased on average by 28 percent in all markets. On average, the price of pineapple per kilo increased 29 percent price in Goroka, Kokopo and Banz between January and March, 2024.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: January 2024

This bulletin presents food price trends during the fourth quarter of 2023 and compares current prices with those of previous years (2021-2022) from major markets across Papua New Guinea using data collected by Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPD). It is important to note that during the fourth quarter of 2023, none of the markets had a complete set of fortnightly price data. While Port Moresby had fortnightly observations for October and December, the rest of the markets (Goroka, Banz Kokopo, Lae) collected price data on a monthly basis. No data was collected in the 4th quarter from Mt Hagen market. To access the complete and comprehensive price dataset, you can download it from our website. This bulletin reports the average real monthly fresh food price data from Port Moresby, Goroka, Banz, and Kokopo markets. The prices presented in this report are in real terms, adjusted for inflation using FAO consumer price index (CPI).

Presentations for the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey: Report Launch

From May to December 2023, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) implemented a rural household survey that collected detailed data on rural household food consumption and expenditures, agricultural production practices, employment profiles, child and mother 24-hour diet recall, and child anthropometry measurements across 14 provinces in Papua New Guinea (PNG). This survey represents the most comprehensive effort to collect detailed consumption and expenditure data since the 2009/10 PNG Household Income Expenditure Survey, completed in 2010.

This seminar will provide results of the rural household survey and discuss opportunities for promoting agricultural transformation for economic growth and food security in PNG. In addition, the National Agriculture Research Institute (NARI) and the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA) will present their work on current initiatives to strengthen livestock systems and farmer information outreach in various parts of the country.

The impacts of production and price shocks on the coffee industry in PNG

Coffee is one of Papua New Guinea’s leading agricultural export in value terms, accounting for 156 million USD of export earnings in 2021 (FAOSTAT, 2023), 13 percent of agricultural export revenues and 1.4 percent of total export revenues. The coffee industry is a major source of income for some 2.5 million people, mainly in farm households, and is cultivated in 17 out of 22 provinces (ACIAR, 2021). Coffee exports and incomes are threatened, however, by a number of supply side factors such as ageing coffee trees, outbreaks of coffee berry borer, poor production practices and challenges in reaching markets (i.e. transport and post-harvest handling), as well as by demand-side fluctuations in the world price of coffee (World Bank, 2022; Dorum et al., 2023). This research note first presents an overview of PNG’s coffee sector, including a discussion of production trends and structure of the coffee value chain. We then utilize a simple partial equilibrium model of coffee supply and demand, along with data on coffee production and household consumption from the PNG Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) of 2009/10, FAOSTAT and the World Bank, to simulate the impacts of potential production and price shocks on the coffee industry in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Finally, we present an analysis of price movements in recent years and the potential costs and benefits of a price stabilization policy for coffee producers.

2023 PNG Rural Household Survey Report

From May to December 2023, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) implemented a rural household survey that collected detailed data on rural household food consumption and expenditures, agricultural production practices, employment profiles, child and mother 24-hour diet recall, and child anthropometry measurements in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The research team carried out the survey, which used location-based sampling, across five agroecological study areas, of which four of the areas were defined using elevation and rainfall variation. The five agroecological survey areas were seasonal highlands, nonseasonal highlands, seasonal lowlands, nonseasonal lowlands, and islands (the islands survey sample was not disaggregated by elevation or precipitation patterns). In identifying seasonal and nonseasonal survey areas, we adapted the rainfall seasonality categories established by Bourke and Harwood (2009), who evaluated the relative difference in rainfall between the wet and the dry season using resource mapping units defined by the PNG Resource Information System (PNGRIS). The areas of the country that experience large seasonal variation in rainfall (heavy to light, depending on the season) are classified as seasonal, whereas the areas that experience moderate to continuously heavy rainfall throughout the year are classified as nonseasonal (see Figure A1.1 in the appendix for the survey seasonality classification by area). In nonseasonal areas, agricultural growing conditions remain similar year-round, whereas seasonal rainfall areas have agricultural conditions that necessitate a variety of production strategies. Lowland and highland areas were defined using elevation data; areas 1,000 meters or more above sea level were classified as highlands, and those below 1,000 meters were classified as lowlands.

The survey collected data from 270 communities across 14 provinces, from a total of 2,699 households. It is important to note that the survey is not nationally representative. Rather, we chose a purposive sample using criteria that would enable analysts of the data to understand the key factors that interact within rural households and communities to create more resilient local food systems, more diversified employment profiles, and improved well-being. Generalizable relationships between variables that affect socioeconomic and other development outcomes in rural PNG communities should be seen consistently in both representative and unrepresentative survey samples.

Effects of a partial ban on Papua New Guinea’s imports of poultry products

In 2023, Papua New Guinea introduced a partial ban on poultry imports from Australia and Asian countries (representing about 70 percent of total PNG poultry imports) in response to the biosecurity threat posed by Avian Influenza (bird flu). Such a restriction on supply has the potential to lead to sharp price increases, steep reductions in household consumption and greater food insecurity.

This memo presents an overview of PNG’s poultry sector and describes an analysis of the ef fects of these trade restrictions on poultry prices, production and consumption using a partial equilibrium model of PNG’s poultry sector. This new analysis builds on earlier work (Dorosh and Schmidt, 2023) that explored the implications of a total ban on poultry imports, by simulating the impacts of a partial poultry ban, including the effects on various household groups within PNG.

Potential impacts of an El Niño related drought on sweet potato consumption and prices in Papua New Guinea

Sweet potato plays an important role in the food system of Papua New Guinea (PNG), accounting for over 12 percent of total calories consumed in the country (IFPRI,2023). Three-quarters of sweet potato production takes place in the highlands where it is harvested throughout the year (Chang et al., 2013). However, the production and consumption of sweet potatoes in PNG faces several challenges, including climate change, pests and diseases, and market access constraints. In particular, a significant decline in sweet potato production due to an El Niño-related drought in early 2024 is a realistic possibility.

This memo describes analysis using a partial equilibrium model to estimate the potential effects of a shortfall in sweet potato production on market prices and consumption, including consumption levels for various types of households in the highlands and other parts of PNG. We also discuss policy options for mitigating negative effects on household welfare.

Assessing the vulnerability of national food security to international food price shocks: A new index

Recent spikes in staple food prices resulting from the invasion of Ukraine have once again highlighted the difficulty faced by low-income countries that rely on imports for a substantial portion of their food supply. To better understand which countries are most affected by higher world food prices, we propose a food import vulnerability index (FIVI). One version of the index describes the vulnerability of each country to higher world prices for each of 15 major staple foods. Another version of the FIVI is a national index, aggregating across the 15 commodities. Both are based on three components, the caloric contribution of the commodity(ies) in the national diet, the dependence on imports, and the level of moderate and severe food insecurity in the country. The values of the FIVI are calculated for 2020, the most recent year for which data are available.

The results indicate that countries are most adversely affected by increases in the world price of wheat, rice, and maize, followed by sugar, and vegetable oil. This is because the five commodities listed are both major contributors to the diet in many countries and because countries often depend on imports for a large share of the domestic requirements of these foods. Yemen, Djibouti, and Afghanistan are most vulnerable to increases in world wheat prices, while Liberia, Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau are particularly vulnerable to spikes in rice prices. In the case of maize, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and Eswatini have the highest vulnerability score. These results should help policymakers and development partners target their efforts to reduce food import vulnerability through policies and programs to strengthen resilience.

Reverting to traditional views of gender during times of relative deprivation: An experimental study in Nepal

Do individuals’ perceptions of their relative economic status affect their attitudes regarding gender roles in patriarchal societies? What role does hearing messages designed to increase support for women’s empowerment play in moderating these effects? Leveraging an original survey experiment in Nepal, we find that a prime conferring feelings of relative deprivation causes women to revert to traditional views of gender in economic decision-making; they become less supportive of women having equal control over household income, sharing house hold chores with men, and working outside the home. Women’s empowerment messaging does not attenuate these effects. Priming men to feel relatively deprived causes declines in gender equitable economic and political views, but women’s empowerment messaging nullifies these effects. The results suggest that among populations feeling relatively deprived, regressive gender norms may take hold. However, light-touch efforts to spur support for women’s empowerment may counter some reversion to traditional views of gender.

Exploring the potential of customized AI chatbots in food policy research: Capabilities and constraints in comparative perspective

Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools are rapidly transforming the way people work, providing opportunities for improving efficiency, accelerating innovations, and supporting human decision making. The area of policymaking is no exception. To explore the advantages and disadvantages of customized chatbots for supporting food policy research, we created a virtual food policy expert using a customized AI system using training literature drawn from about two dozen food policy research reports or food policy documents. A range of questions seeking food policy advice were then posed to the chatbot to better understand the limits to its expertise, the accuracy of its responses, and the value it might offer users seeking specific advice to guide the formulation and implementation of food policy related strategies and programs. A relatively simple comparative assessment was made of the results obtained from asking the same food policy-related questions to different AI sources, including the customized AI virtual food policy expert. Overall, we found that AI -based chatbots can be useful tools for summarizing research and providing “first cut” information only. We also conclude that, while customized chatbots have the advantage of offering the possibility of uploading pre-selected papers, unless a large amount of information is uploaded or the chatbot is also allowed by design to draw on information from other sources including the internet, the responses the virtual coach provides may be limited to only a small and specific set of questions. To be more credible and useful for policymakers, chatbots need to be enabled to provide more specific information. For the foreseeable future, providing such detailed and often country-specific information will still be in the hands of human experts.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: October 2023

Download time series food price data, and build graphs and tables for over 20 different food crops at our food price database webpage: https://www.ifpri.org/project/fresh food-price-analysis-papua-new-guinea Price trends in Q3, 2023 Staple Crops: Sweet potato prices were relatively stable across all markets, with prices ticking upwards at the end of the third quarter in highlands markets. Comparing quarter 2 and 3 average prices on specific commodities, Port Moresby experienced the largest increase in taro price/kg at 76 percent while Banz experienced a 10 percent decrease in cassava price/kg. Vitamin-dense foods: vegetable prices varied across markets in the third quarter of 2023, with some prices decreasing and others increasing. Prices of most vegetables in Port Moresby decreased from August to September, while prices of English cabbage, capsicum, and carrots in Lae increased by 10%. Fresh Fruits: Prices varied across markets in the second and third quarters of 2023. Ripe banana prices increased in Lae and Banz but decreased in Port Moresby, Mt Hagen, and Goroka. Lemon prices increased in all markets except Lae.

Adoption and impacts of agricultural technologies and sustainable natural resource management practices in fragile and conflict affected settings: A review and meta-analysis

Climate change and conflicts co-exist in many countries with significant welfare and socio-environmental implications. Different approaches are being promoted to adapt and build resilience to these fragilities including the adoption of sustainable farm practices that have the potential to increase agricultural productivity and maintain environmental sustainability. We undertake a systematic review and perform a meta-analysis to understand and synthesize the adoption and impacts of agricultural technologies and natural resource management practices with a special attention to fragile and conflict affected settings. We employ state of the art machine learning methods to enable process and selection of appropriate papers from a universe of over 78,000 papers from leading academic databases. We find that studies on adoption and impact of agricultural technologies and natural resource management practices are highly clustered around Ethiopia and Nigeria. We do not find any studies on Small Island States. We observe a wide array of characteristics that influence adoption of these technologies. Of the over 1400 estimates of determinants collected, majority predict input technologies while very few studies and estimates are found in relation to risk management and mechanisation technologies. Our meta-analysis shows an average effect size of 7 - 9% for the different technologies and practices. For the outcomes: land productivity, food security and household welfare, we obtain effect sizes of 6, 8 and 9% respectively. We do not observe much in terms of publication bias. Both climate and conflict vulnerability not only cause far more food insecurity, poverty, and degradation of the environment on their own but also reinforce each other through the climate change – conflict linkage. For these detrimental effects to be curtailed, utilisation of climate-smart agricultural technologies and natural resource management practices need to be encouraged. We thus lend credence to the development, dissemination and upscaling of these sustainable practices. We observe a lot of space for growth and adoption of these technologies.

CACCI country profile Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea ranks among the countries most at risk to natural disasters and climate change (World Bank, 2021). Increased exposure to natural hazards such as coastal and inland river flooding as well as landslides are likely to intensify in PNG, affecting agriculture production patterns and household livelihoods. In addition, the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report suggests that Pacific coral reefs face a negative outlook under all climate change scenarios, whereby increased coral bleaching will have significant negative impacts on the health of coastal fisheries in PNG (Nurse et al., 2014).

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: July 2023

Download time series food price data, and build graphs and tables for over 20 different food crops at our food price database webpage: https://www.ifpri.org/project/freshfood-price-analysis-papua-new-guinea. Price trends in Q2, 2023Staple Crops: Between Q1 and Q2, the price of sweet potato declined 19 percent (except in Lae, up 30 percent), taro decreased 5 percent (except Lae and Banz, up 11 percent), cassava fell 8 percent (except Goroka, up 17 percent), and cooking banana cooking decreased 14 percent (except Lae and Banz, up 16 and 5 percent, respectively). Vitamin-dense foods: On average, vegetable (aibika, choko-tips, English cabbage, carrot, and capsicum) prices increased 15 percent between Q1 and Q2, except in Goroka, Kokopo, and Mt Hagen, where the price of aibika, English cabbage, and carrot decreased by 8 percent. Fresh Fruits: Lemon and orange prices decreased 15 percent and 8 percent between Q1 and Q2, while ripe banana, watermelon, and pawpaw slightly increased by 4 percent. Compared to other markets, the price of oranges and lemons are expensive in Port Moresby at 11.5 PGK/kg and 7.6 PGK/kg, respectively. Banz, Mt Hagen, and Goroka experienced average price increases in ripe banana, pawpaw, and watermelon of 21, 14 and 21 percent, respectively.

Constraints facing rural poultry production in PNG: The role of input suppliers

Context: The average consumption of protein foods in Papua New Guinea (PNG) remains insufficient to meet nutritious diet guidelines, especially in rural areas. While an expanding literature has demonstrated that poultry is a cost-efficient animal source food to increase protein intake, rural households in PNG face high prices at the market for poultry meat. Similarly, the high price of poultry production inputs constrains greater uptake of rural poultry production. PNG’s heavy reliance on feed (and feed input) imports, as well as high transportation costs and insufficient rural manufacturing and processing infrastructure creates limited opportunities for rural subsistence and commercial poultry production growth. Objective: There is a lack of value chain studies to understand the feasibility of expanding the local mini livestock feed mill model in PNG to increase poultry feed supply in underserved areas. This study builds from earlier work on rural livestock feed infrastructure programs, and aims to fill the knowledge gap on the opportunities and constraints for expanding domestic livestock feed production and distribution via rural mini feed mills. Method: The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the National Agriculture Research Institute (NARI) conducted in-depth qualitative interviews with 8 mini mills and 13 poultry farmers across 4 highland provinces during October and November 2022. We synthesize the interview transcriptions of the qualitative interviews in tandem with quantitative analysis of food consumption and agri-food trade data, as well as the authors’ own field observations in this paper. Results: The in-depth interviews showed that the poultry farmers who purchased from local mini feed mills substantially lowered their feed costs, resulting in greater gross profits compared to rural poultry farmers that only sourced feed from commercial feed suppliers. However, the mini feed mills that we interviewed outlined a series of challenges in sustaining rural feed mills in PNG. The main challenges of running a successful mill included feed mill equipment procurement, electricity reliability, reliable raw ingredient supply, mini mill retailing to secure a client base, and adequate information about feed formulation. We identified two potential approaches that have overcome many of the identified challenges, that could be replicated and adapted to expand mini feed mill operations in the Highlands. The first approach is a farmer cooperative model that incorporates credit and feed delivery services to cooperative farmers. In doing so, they are able to better estimate volume demand for processed feed and accommodate feed production accordingly. The second approach follows a lead firm model, whereby a local farm supply retail outlet is expanding its business to include livestock feed production and supply, overcoming equipment procurement constraints given their previously developed business model focused on farm implement supply. Our evaluation provides detailed costs and benefits of both approaches for potential expansion of these livestock feed producer and distributor models.

Agricultural transformation and market integration in the ASEAN region: Responding to food security and inclusiveness concerns

In this paper, we address the question of the agricultural market integration of Cambodia, Lao, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Philippines (CLMVP) countries within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and its other top trading partners. Using “Trade Potential” and “Competition Indices” indicators in this paper we assess the nature and extent of the agricultural market integration. We identify the exports of CLMVP countries with high export potential and comparatively low competition in export markets. Higher trade potential with lower competition (value or volume) indicates an opportunity of higher returns for agricultural producers. CLMVP countries are characterized by low diversity in agricultural exports. Nearly half of the total agricultural exports from all of them except Laos is contributed by only one commodity. It is found that market integration is an effective way of linking CLMVP smallholders to ASEAN agricultural markets. In addition to that this paper also discusses on tariff and non-tariff policy of CLMVP countries and found that the average tariffs on agri-food imports in CLMVP is 11.8% while it is 9.5% in non-CLMVP among the ASEAN countries. In non-tariff policy, among the CLMVP countries, Philippines shares the maximum number of SPS measures implemented on agricultural goods while Cambodia and Lao PDR did not report any SPS measures implemented by them between 2006 to 2020. Finally, to demonstrate the upward movement in the value chain, possibly due to quality upgradation, we present the dynamics of the unit values of CLMVP’s agricultural exports.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: April 2023

Download time series food price data, and build graphs and tables for over 20 different food crops at our food price database webpage: https://www.ifpri.org/project/freshfood-price-analysis-papua-newguinea. In the first quarter of 2023, the average price of sweet potatoes (except in Port Moresby) and taro declined by 14 and 17 percent, respectively, in all markets. Rice prices remained stable in all markets during the 1st quarter of 2023, however long-term (2021 real) rice price (1 kilo bag) has increased 13% between the 2nd quarter of 2021 and the 1st quarter of 2023. Leafy vegetables (aibika, choko-tips, English cabbage, pakchoi) prices increased 31 percent (in nominal terms) in Kokopo between January and March. However, average green leafy vegetable prices in Port Moresby decreased by 19 percent, except for Aibika. In Mt Hagen, choko-tips and pakchoi prices were up by 27 percent from January, while aibika and English cabbage decreased by 11 percent between January and March.

2023 Global report on food crises: Joint analysis for better decisions

Founded by the European Union, FAO and WFP at the 2016 World Humanitarian Summit, the Global Network Against Food Crises is an alliance of humanitarian and development actors working together to prevent, prepare for, and respond to food crises and support the Sustainable Development Goal to End Hunger (SDG 2). It seeks to reduce vulnerabilities associated with acute hunger; achieve food security and improved nutrition; and promote sustainable agriculture and food systems, using a ‘3x3 approach.’ This involves working at the global, regional and national levels to support partnerships within existing structures and to improve advocacy, decision-making, policy and programming along the following three dimensions: Dimension 1 | Understanding food crises The work within this dimension aims to build greater consensus and promote evidencebased food security and nutrition analyses and reporting in order to strengthen the collection, quality and coverage of the food security and nutrition data and analysis, and inform decision-making and action. This will be achieved through the contribution to the Global Report on Food Crises, a unique ‘global public good’ under the coordination and leadership of the Food Security Information Network (FSIN), as well as the coordination, synthesis, and publication of technical analyses, including forward-looking analyses of food crises. Dimension 2 | Leveraging strategic investments in food security, nutrition and agriculture The work within this dimension aims to advocate for ‘fit for purpose’ financing that draws on the full range of resource flows (public and private, international and domestic) to better prepare for, prevent and respond to food crises. It seeks to improve coherence between humanitarian, development and peace actions (the HDP ‘nexus’) to build resilience to shocks and promote longer-term self-reliance. Activities include a strong focus on supporting capacity strengthening of country-level actors and institutions, as well as strengthening coordination at the regional level to ensure that investments are focused on the right place, at the right time. Dimension 3 | Going beyond food The work within this dimension aims to foster political uptake and coordination across clusters/sectors to address the underlying multi-dimensional drivers of food crises including environmental, political, economic, societal and security risk factors. It seeks to improve understanding and promote linkages between the different dimensions of fragility through knowledge sharing, advocacy and integrated policy responses.

Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War price shocks on the Bangladesh economy: A general equilibrium analysis

The spike in global commodity prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine war has had major adverse impacts on many developing countries, including Bangladesh, that still depend heavily on energy and food imports. Although the Bangladesh economy has rebounded after the COVID-19 pandemic, the latest global trade shock has threated to increase food insecurity and poverty. This study utilizes the Bangladesh RIAPA economywide model to assess the impact of increases in global commodity prices and explores potential policy interventions to reduce negative impacts. Simulation results show that increases in international commodity prices create a GDP loss of 0.36 percent and an increase of three million in the number of poor (mainly rural poor). Energy price shocks account for most of this decline in real GDP (0.28 percent). The fertilizer subsidy helps spur agriculture production which leads to an increase in crop GDP by 0.78 percent and total agricultural GDP by 0.43 percent. Changes in policy could help mitigate the effects of these price shocks. In particular, petroleum subsidies would help increase production in both agriculture and services, leading to a 0.3 percent increase in household consumption, considerably more than the gain under a targeted cash transfer policy of equal cost. However, given that the petroleum subsidy does not specifically target the poor, it only reduces poverty by a fraction of what a targeted cash transfer would. Moreover, as illustrated by the experiences of other countries, increases in a fuel subsidy, once introduced, are likely to be very difficult to reverse. This suggests that if the major policy goal is to reduce poverty, a direct cash transfer would be more effective than the other policy options considered here. Combining these policies, however, would be even more effective than any single intervention, reducing poverty incidence by around 2.5 million people, and thereby preventing nearly all of the potential increase in poverty resulting from global price shocks.

A Review of Evidence on Gender Equality, Women's Empowerment, and Food Systems

Achieving gender equality and women’s empowerment in food systems can result in greater food security and better nutrition, as well as more just, resilient and sustainable food systems for all. This chapter uses a scoping review to assess the current evidence on pathways between gender equality, women’s empowerment and food systems. The chapter uses an adaptation of the food system framework to organize the evidence and identify where evidence is strong, and where gaps remain. Results show strong evidence on women’s differing access to resources, shaped and reinforced by contextual social gender norms, and on links between women’s empowerment and maternal education and important outcomes, such as nutrition and dietary diversity. However, evidence is limited on issues such as gender considerations in food systems for women in urban areas and in aquaculture value chains, best practices and effective pathways for engaging men in the process of women’s empowerment in food systems, and how to address issues related to migration, crises and indigenous food systems. While there are gender-informed evaluation studies examining the effectiveness of gender- and nutrition-sensitive agricultural programs, evidence indicating the long-term sustainability of such impacts remains limited. The chapter recommends key areas for investment: improving women’s leadership and decision-making in food systems, promoting equal and positive gender norms, improving access to resources, and building cross-contextual research evidence on gender and food systems.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: January 2023

Users can download time series food price data, and build graphs and tables for over 20 different food crops at our food price database webpage: https://www.ifpri.org/project/freshfood-price-analysis-papua-newguinea. The average (nominal) price of staple foods in Port Moresby was 22 percent less (in nominal terms) in the 4th quarter of 2022 compared to quarter 4 of 2021. The 2022 quarter 4 price of sweet potato and taro in Kokopo was 22 percent greater compared to the same quarter in 2021. In addition green leafy vegetables price increased, in part due to unseasonably dry weather in East New Britain. Despite a rising global food price trend in 2022 as a result of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, increasing fuel prices, and weather stress, the price of imported rice in PNG remains relatively stable, with an average annual (nominal) price variation of 10 percent across 4 markets. In December 2022 a kilo of rice (Roots rice) cost 4.03 PGK/kg, compared to 5.07 PGK/kg in Port Moresby.

Role of agricultural commercialization in the agricultural transformation of Ethiopia: Trends, drivers, and impact on well-being

Agricultural transformation refers to a series of changes in agriculture that both reflect and drive rising income and economic development more broadly. While the macroeconomic patterns of agricultural transformation are relatively well documented, less is known about how it is manifested at the household level. Ethiopia makes an excellent case study as it has had one of the fastest growing economies in the world. This paper focuses on one aspect of this process: agricultural commercialization, that is, the process through which an increasing share of agricultural output is sold on the market rather than being consumed at home. The analysis uses three nationally representative rural household surveys carried out in 2012, 2016, and 2019, including a panel of 1,900 households. The results show that the share of marketed agricultural output has increased significantly over the seven-year period. Somewhat surprisingly, this increase is not due to a shift in crop mix toward more commercial crops but rather an increase in the degree of commercialization of each crop. Using a correlated random effects model, we find marketed share to be significantly related to age of the head of household, farm size, wealth, distance to road, rainfall, rainfall variability, and region. Although endogeneity is a challenge, descriptive statistics and regression analysis further suggest that agricultural commercialization contributes to higher income, largely because commercial crops generate higher returns per hectare than staple grains. The results indicate that there is no clear line between “subsistence” and “commercial” farms. A large majority of farms have some crop sales, while virtually none of them sell all their output. Similarly, the contrast between subsistence crops and cash crops can be misleading. For example, the value of staple cereal sales in Ethiopia is almost three times greater than that of coffee, the main cash crop. We draw lessons from the results for the design of programs to raise rural incomes by facilitating market-oriented agricultural production.

Does relative deprivation condition the effects of social protection programs on political support? Experimental evidence from Pakistan

2022 UPDATE: Could perceived relative economic standing affect citizens’ support for political leaders and institutions? We explore this question by examining Pakistan’s national unconditional cash transfer program, the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP). Leveraging a regression discontinuity approach using BISP’s administrative data and an original survey experiment, we find that perceptions of relative deprivation color citizen reactions to social protection. When citizens do not feel relatively deprived, receiving cash transfers has little sustained effect on individuals’ reported level of support for their political system and its leaders. However, when citizens feel relatively worse off, those receiving cash transfers become more politically satisfied, while those denied transfers become more politically disgruntled. Moreover, the magnitude of the reduction in political support among non-beneficiaries is larger than the magnitude of the increase in political support among beneficiaries. This has important implications for our understanding of the political ramifications of rising perceived inequality.

2019 Abstract: Why might citizens fail to reward incumbents for providing private goods? While extant literature on the political consequences of targeted government welfare programs has focused on attribution challenges and low levels of civic education and engagement, we offer an additional explanation related to perceived inequality, or the feeling that one is poor relative to other citizens. Leveraging a regression discontinuity design and a survey experiment, we identify the causal effects of a large cash transfer program in Pakistan when relative deprivation is and is not pronounced. When relative deprivation is not salient, we find that cash transfers have little effect on attitudes toward government. However, when relative deprivation is salient, those receiving cash transfers experience increased support for their political leaders and institutions, while those denied transfers become more politically disgruntled. This has important implications for our understanding of the political ramifications of rising inequality and social protection programs.

Synopsis: Improving agricultural value chain coordination and gender inclusiveness in Papua New Guinea

Maximizing efficiency throughout the entire agri-food value chain is critical to fostering greater economic growth and poverty reduction in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Investments in midstream value chain infrastructure (e.g., improved storage facilities, rural feeder roads, electricity, and cold storage transport) are crucial to strengthen linkages between producers and consumers. These investments should also promote inclusive development that benefits both men and women value chain actors. In this study, we analyzed three key value chains in Papua New Guinea—poultry, sweet potato, and fresh vegetables—aiming to guide policymakers and stakeholders toward ways to improve productivity, increase revenue, and bolster competitiveness and inclusiveness within the agriculture and livestock sectors.

Improving agricultural value chain coordination and gender inclusiveness in PNG

The welfare of Papua New Guinea’s (PNG’s) population depends on domestic agriculture productivity and stability. As of 2019, value-added from the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors totaled approximately 17 percent of GDP. However, when considering the downstream value chain activities directly related to the agriculture sector (e.g., agriculture processing, domestic food trade and transportation, and domestic food commodity sales), the larger agri-food system in PNG contributes over 25 percent to the country’s overall GDP (Pradesha and Dorosh, 2022). Maximizing efficiency throughout the entire agri-food value chain is critical to fostering greater economic growth and poverty reduction within the country. Growing a globally competitive agriculture sector also demands investments and capacity strengthening in mid-stream value chain operations such as product aggregation, transport logistics, packaging and processing, and handling. It is important that these investments also promote inclusive development that benefits both men and women value chain actors. Previous research suggests that where women are economically empowered and have access to decent jobs in lucrative nodes (i.e., activities) of value chains, households have higher incomes and are less likely to be poor (FAO, 2011). In PNG, despite women’s greater share of employment in agriculture (60 and 52 percent of women and men work in agriculture, respectively), women participate less in higher-value agricultural production and trade activities (Chang et al., 2016; Omot, Chambers, and Spriggs, 2013; World Bank, 2022).

Synopsis: Implications of public investments and external shocks on agriculture, economic growth and poverty in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis

Policy simulations utilizing an economy-wide model based on PNG national accounts and survey data highlight the importance of linkages between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors of the PNG economy. There are potentially major benefits of increased agricultural productivity for national income and urban households. To reduce rural poverty, however, transport and processing costs must be lowered, as well. Even if only half of the increase in foreign exchange earnings from the 2022 world energy price shock is absorbed into the PNG economy, the real exchange rate appreciates by 13 percent, reducing incomes from export crops. However, increased domestic demand for non-tradable crops contributes to a 10 percent income gain for the rural poor. Using a portion of increased oil and natural gas revenues to finance new investments in crop agriculture, processing and transport, provides even greater benefits by spurring real GDP growth and raising real household incomes by an additional 2 to 4 percentage points. A hypothetical carbon credit arrangement in which PNG reduces deforestation in exchange for funds used to finance cash transfers to the poorest 20 percent of both urban and rural households could raise the incomes of these groups by about 13 percent.

Synopsis: Rural household welfare in Papua New Guinea: Food security and nutrition challenges

While a lot of development planning and policy attention has been dedicated to achieving dietary energy (i.e., calorie) adequacy to ensure food security and support greater household wellbeing, nutrition adequacy is also necessary to achieve improved human development indicators (e.g., improved educational attainment, decreased disease prevalence, and decreased child stunting prevalence). This study (explained in detail in the comprehensive working paper) calculates two poverty lines based on the costs that an individual faces in PNG to secure a diet consisting of foods typically consumed by poor households adjusted to align with a calorie threshold and healthy diet thresholds, respectively, together with modest non-food expenditures. Results suggest that over half of the sample households are unable to meet the necessary costs of ensuring an calorie equate modest food basket along with some basic non-food needs (Schmidt et al., 2022). Comparing the healthy diet poverty line to average household income suggests that attaining a nutritious, balanced diet while meeting other basic needs remains out of reach for nearly 4/5 of the rural sample households. Based on the study results, we identify 3 key interventions to improve food and nutrition security in vulnerable areas. First, PNG will continue to face disruptive climate events that quickly increase agricultural vulnerability and food insecurity in remote areas with limited market access and underdeveloped support services. The government of PNG in collaboration with development partners should pilot a series of social safety net programs that can assist vulnerable populations. These programs can be designed to build resiliency during non-shock seasons or years, such as improving livestock holdings, diversifying crop mix, investing in sustainable land management, and building agricultural production and other rural infrastructure for improved marketing and access to agricultural inputs. Second, a concerted effort is needed to promote the importance of nutrition at all levels of society. At the household level, training should aim to instill (for both men and women) the value of a costlier, but more nutritious diet. District and regional government officials, healthcare workers and other key stakeholders should be trained on methodologies to integrate nutrition programming into other development activities. High-level government dialogue and learning should aim to encourage greater coordination between local and federal government officials and across government departments to ensure improved nutrition outcomes for greater agricultural productivity and economic growth. Finally, PNG (both government and development partners) must invest in more timely data collection of key welfare indicators to inform nutrition targets and assistance programming.

Rural household welfare in Papua New Guinea: Food security and nutrition challenges

Papua New Guinea continues to encourage a policy focus on food and nutrition security. The PNG National Nutrition Policy (2016-2026) and Nutrition Strategic Action Plan (2018-2022) (NSAP) set a path to improve coordination, secure sufficient funding, and improve technical capacity of nutrition-focused pro gram implementation. As policy prioritizes improved nutrition outcomes, it is important to understand the cost that households face of securing a higher level of nutrition. Ensuring a healthy diet that meets nutrition standards is relatively expensive in PNG. The analysis presented in this paper, which uses detailed household food and non-food consumption data suggests that 4/5 of households in the survey sample live below the healthy diet poverty line (which sets a calorie threshold and defines healthy diet nutrition targets). That is, these households do not have the income available (or do not consume sufficient food and non-food goods) to meet their basic needs which includes securing a nutritious diet that meets food based die tary guidelines.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: July 2022

This bulletin presents food price data compiled by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA) from markets across the country to track food price trends and inform policymakers. In addition, users can access a web-based interactive dashboard for visualizing monthly prices of over 20 different food types over time. Price data collected in 2021 had comparatively higher number of observations compared to the previous year. However, data collection was interrupted in August through mid-September due to logistical challenges and market closures as a result of the COVID-19 surge in PNG, mainly in highland markets, creating gaps in the time series price data.

IFPRI at a glance

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) believes that by working together, the global community can sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI provides cutting-edge research and policy options on food and nutrition security to support these goals. For more than 40 years, IFPRI has collaborated with stakeholders and partners to contribute needed evidence for country- and region-led policies that help ensure that all people have access to safe, sufficient, nutritious, and sustainably grown food.

Implications of public investments and external shocks on agriculture, economic growth and poverty in Papua New Guinea: An economywide analysis

Policymakers in Papua New Guinea face difficult choices as to how best to promote economic growth and reduce poverty in the context of vast differences in technology and infrastructure across the country. Fluctuations in world prices of petroleum, minerals, and export crops complicate the management of the economy because of their large impacts on export earnings and government revenues, as well as household welfare. Moreover, other shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic that shut down major parts of the economies of PNG and the rest of the world, have far-reaching effects on various economic sectors, as well as the health and welfare of the population. This paper presents an analysis of investment options in the agricultural sector and the effects of major economic shocks to the PNG economy using an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that provides estimates of the economic linkages between production, household incomes, consumption, investment, and trade. The model’s base data, a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2019, and many of the parameters are derived from the national accounts, household surveys and other data for PNG. It is important to realize, however, that even though the SAM and model structure provide a framework that guarantees a consistency of many of the assumptions, there remain many uncertainties in the data. Thus, the results presented here should not be interpreted as exact estimates, but only approximations of potential effects of policies and external shocks. The plan of this paper is as follows. Chapter 2 provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last two decades, highlighting the declining share of agriculture in GDP despite positive agricultural GDP growth rates and changes in the real exchange rate that have major implications for incentives in the economy. Chapter 3 then presents a summary of the economy-wide model used in the analysis. Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper. Design of the model simulations and model results are discussed in Chapter 4. These simulations cover various investments in agriculture and transport infrastructure, increases in world prices of petroleum and natural gas, price increases for agricultural exports and hypothetical carbon credits tied to a reduction in exports of forestry products. Chapter 5 concludes with a summary of the main findings, policy implications and suggested areas for further work.

World Health Organization and knowledge translation in maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health and nutrition

The World Health Organization (WHO) has a mandate to promote maternal and child health and welfare through support to governments in the form of technical assistance, standards, epidemiological and statistical services, promoting teaching and training of healthcare professionals and providing direct aid in emergencies. The Strategic and Technical Advisory Group of Experts (STAGE) for maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health and nutrition (MNCAHN) was established in 2020 to advise the Director-General of WHO on issues relating to MNCAHN. STAGE comprises individuals from multiple low-income and middle-income and high-income countries, has representatives from many professional disciplines and with diverse experience and interests.Progress in MNCAHN requires improvements in quality of services, equity of access and the evolution of services as technical guidance, community needs and epidemiology changes. Knowledge translation of WHO guidance and other guidelines is an important part of this. Countries need effective and responsive structures for adaptation and implementation of evidence-based interventions, strategies to improve guideline uptake, education and training and mechanisms to monitor quality and safety. This paper summarises STAGE’s recommendations on how to improve knowledge translation in MNCAHN. They include support for national and regional technical advisory groups and subnational committees that coordinate maternal and child health; support for national plans for MNCAHN and their implementation and monitoring; the production of a small number of consolidated MNCAHN guidelines to promote integrated and holistic care; education and quality improvement strategies to support guidelines uptake; monitoring of gaps in knowledge translation and operational research in MNCAHN.

Annual report 2021: CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets

PIM had a productive final year centered on synthesizing findings while continuing to respond to demand on the impacts of COVID-19 and preparing the transition to the new CGIAR portfolio. PIM findings and engagement contributed to Myanmar’s response to COVID-19, South Africa’s policies on resilience to climate change, Tunisia's policies for pastoral development, a reform of Nigeria’s national agricultural research system, Ghana’s fish seed and farm certification system, gender strategies for three agricultural value chains in Honduras, and genome editing guidelines for the agricultural sector in four African countries. PIM research informed policy documents of FAO, IFAD, One CGIAR, the UK Government, the World Bank and the World Food Programme. PIM tools enabled more equitable co-management of 76 protected areas in Peru and informed World Bank social protection projects. Books on food security in Bangladesh and Malawi, trade in Latin America, African agricultural value chains and gender were published. 42 PIM synthesis briefs and notes were issued, summarizing research results in key thematic areas. PIM contributed 181 journal articles, 8 journal issues (on demand driven seed systems, China’s response to COVID-19, agriculture and food security in China under COVID-19, food loss and waste, landscape restoration, multistakeholder fora in forestry and two issues on gender), 15 book chapters and about 500 non-peer-reviewed outputs. 16 PIM webinars were organized. PIM’s contributions to the United Nations Food Systems Summit covered agricultural extension, food system innovations and digital technologies, the future of small farms, the science-policy interface, the cost of ending hunger by 2030, food waste and loss, management of the commons and gender. Building on past PIM investments in economywide modeling tools and social accounting matrices, PIM teams continued to assess the impacts of COVID-19 and policy responses at country level. Lessons learned from PIM country-level analyses on COVID-19’s impacts on food systems, poverty and diets are summarized in a chapter of the IFPRI 2022 book “COVID19 and global food security: Two years later”. A paper in partnership with the CGIAR COVID19 Hub reviewed the literature on agri-food value chains for evidence of fractures and resilience in response to the pandemic. The results of coordinated studies on the impacts of COVID-19 on value chains in different countries were published. Several cross-CGIAR outputs initiated by PIM speak to the fulfillment of PIM’s convening role as an integrating program: the CGIAR Foresight Report and CGIAR foresight website; several outputs produced through the CGIAR Community of Excellence on Seed Systems Development, and the CGIAR book “Advancing gender equality through agricultural and environmental research: Past, present, and future” are examples. Other examples of PIM global public goods produced in 2021 are 27 innovations at various stages of uptake, a cross-cutting effort to distill PIM lessons on migration; new or updated social accounting matrices for 25 countries; and lessons and tools on stakeholder platforms for natural resource governance. Independent reviews assessed the effectiveness of PIM’s partnerships and the use by partners of PIM’s work on economywide modelling, agricultural insurance, tenure and governance, and the Ag-Incentives database.

Projections from IFPRI's IMPACT model: Climate change and food systems

Policymakers, analysts, and civil society face increasing challenges to reducing hunger and sustainably improving food security. Modeling alternative future scenarios and assessing their outcomes can help inform policy choices. The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is an integrated system of linked economic, climate, water, and crop models that allows for the exploration of such scenarios. Projections for 2030 and 2050, with and without climate change, cover food production, per capita consumption, net trade, and number of people at risk of hunger.

Nutrition as a basic need: A new method for utility-consistent and nutritionally adequate food poverty lines

In most countries and globally, malnutrition rates exceed poverty rates. The World Bank estimates that about 9 percent (689 million) of the global population is poor, yet an estimated 25 percent (2 billion people) suffer from micronutrient deficiencies. Such a discrepancy begs the question: Do standard poverty metrics poorly reflect nutritional needs? The most prevalent methodology for measuring poverty in low- and middle-income countries – the cost of basic needs approach – estimates food baskets that satisfy a dietary energy standard while reflecting consumption patterns of poor households. However, poor households typically consume monotonous diets characterized by large quantities of calorically cheap staple foods that are poor sources of nutrients. This reality creates a circular logic whereby the cost of basic nutritional needs is estimated from populations who are consuming nutritionally inadequate diets. We argue that a healthy diet is a basic need and that the standard used to calculate cost of basic needs food poverty lines should be expanded to satisfy nutritional dietary recommendations, while continuing to reflect context-specific dietary patterns. We develop an approach to estimate food poverty lines that satisfies the food group proportionality associated with healthy diet recommendations while also adhering to observed within-food group consumption patterns of poor households. Furthermore, we address the limitation of estimating a single national food basket – which fails to capture variation in local consumption patterns driven by preferences, availability, and relative prices – by estimating utility-consistent regional poverty lines. We demonstrate the approach using data from Myanmar. Energy-based poverty lines significantly underestimate the cost of acquiring a healthy diet, are severely deficient in multiple micronutrients, and therefore result in a drastic underestimate of the rate of poverty based on a healthy diet standard. The resulting higher cost of basic needs also has important implications for inclusive economic growth strategies and nutrition-sensitive food policies and social protection.

2022 Global report on food crises: Joint analysis for better decisions

Founded by the European Union, FAO and WFP at the 2016 World Humanitarian Summit, the Global Network Against Food Crises is an alliance of humanitarian and development actors working together to prevent, prepare for, and respond to food crises and support the Sustainable Development Goal to End Hunger (SDG 2). It seeks to reduce vulnerabilities associated with acute hunger; achieve food security and improved nutrition; and promote sustainable agriculture and food systems, using a ‘3x3 approach.’ This involves working at the global, regional and national levels to support partnerships within existing structures and to improve advocacy, decision-making, policy and programming along the following three dimensions: Dimension 1 | Understanding food crises The work within this dimension aims to build greater consensus and promote evidencebased food security and nutrition analyses and reporting in order to strengthen the collection, quality and coverage of the food security and nutrition data and analysis, and inform decision-making and action. This will be achieved through the contribution to the Global Report on Food Crises, a unique ‘global public good’ under the coordination and leadership of the Food Security Information Network (FSIN), as well as the coordination, synthesis, and publication of technical analyses, including forward-looking analyses of food crises. Dimension 2 | Leveraging strategic investments in food security, nutrition and agriculture The work within this dimension aims to advocate for ‘fit for purpose’ financing that draws on the full range of resource flows (public and private, international and domestic) to better prepare for, prevent and respond to food crises. It seeks to improve coherence between humanitarian, development and peace actions (the HDP ‘nexus’) to build resilience to shocks and promote longer-term self-reliance. Activities include a strong focus on supporting capacity strengthening of country-level actors and institutions, as well as strengthening coordination at the regional level to ensure that investments are focused on the right place, at the right time. Dimension 3 | Going beyond food The work within this dimension aims to foster political uptake and coordination across clusters/sectors to address the underlying multi-dimensional drivers of food crises including environmental, political, economic, societal and security risk factors. It seeks to improve understanding and promote linkages between the different dimensions of fragility through knowledge sharing, advocacy and integrated policy responses.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: April 2022

The per kilo sweet potato (2020 real) price in Port Moresby and Lae in the 1st quarter of 2022 were nearly double the per kilo sweet potato price of the 1st quarter of 2021. The price of cassava and taro held stable in quarter 1 with minimal price changes between January and April across all markets. While, globally, commodity food prices are rising due to supply chain issues and concerns over the Russia-Ukraine conflict, thus far rice prices in PNG remain stable. Vitamin dense fresh vegetables are more costly than staple foods in PNG. However, in Goroka, Mt. Hagen, and Lae, the kg prices of broccoli, carrot and cabbage in the first quarter of 2022 were comparable to taro and cooking banana.

Intensive and extensive margins of India’s agricultural trade: Implications for export diversification and development

This paper analyses relative contribution of intensive and extensive margins to growth in India’s agricultural exports for the period 2001 to 2020. Two alternative approaches are employed to estimating export margins: the traditional approach of using export volume across product lines, and a robust method proposed by Hummels and Klenow (2005). The paper also examines the determinants of export margins through a standard gravity model. Traditional method of decomposing export growth shown that intensification of the export of existing products to existing destinations dominated export growth. The contribution of export diversification to export growth has remained subdued in the last two decades. Within the extensive margin, contribution of product diversification to export growth was more important than the contribution of geographic diversification. According to the Hummels and Klenow approach, during the 2001 to 2020 period, the extensive margin grew at 1.24 percent per annum, while the intensive margin increased at 0.23 percent. The contribution of growth at the extensive margin increased from 58.8 percent in 2001 to 70.2 percent in 2020. Gravity model results revealed that, among other variables, a positive and significant effect of free trade agreement on export margins. Broadly the study results point out that India’s exports along the extensive margin has not been fully exploited and that export diversification holds the key to higher export growth in agricultural products. There is wide scope for expansion of India’s agricultural exports through development of new product varieties and new markets.

2019 Social Accounting Matrix for Papua New Guinea (PNG)

The Nexus Project is a collaboration between IFPRI and its partners, including national statistical agencies and research institutions. Our aim is to improve the quality of social accounting matrices (SAMs) used for computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The Nexus Project develops toolkits and establishes common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. This addresses the need for greater transparency and consistency in SAM construction to strengthen model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries. Nexus SAMs allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structure, especially agriculture-food systems. The Nexus Project’s guiding principles are that all data should be traceable to original sources and/or assumptions, and that all SAMs should be freely available online. Greater transparency and accessibility should facilitate more data validation and participation of the modeling community. Statistics are continuously being revised and errors are often only identified when data is used for analysis, and so we welcome your suggestions on how the SAMs can be improved to reflect new and/or better information.

COVID-19-induced disruptions of school feeding services exacerbate food insecurity in Nigeria

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown policies have disrupted education, health, and nutrition services globally, with severe implications for children’s well-being. As the pandemic spread, more than 190 countries implemented countrywide school closures, affecting 1.6 billion children around the world. In addition to the direct effects on learning, these closures affect household food security by interrupting school feeding services.

Fiscal and monetary responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: Current conditions and future scenarios in developing countries

Our 2020 report on responses to COVID-19 discussed national pandemic response plans in developing countries (Díaz-Bonilla 2020). Those integrated plans, it was argued, would require a centralized crisis-management office led by the president, prime minister, or equivalent, with participation of the relevant public and private sector representatives. A strong fiscal and monetary response was needed to support these plans, including unconventional monetary policies, such as those used by what were labeled “developmental central banks” during the 1960s and 1970s (Díaz-Bonilla 2015). Expansion in money supply during the pandemic would finance the fiscal deficit related to public expenditures on health and non-health programs as well as programs to maintain private sector production. We noted that central banks in developed countries have followed a similar monetary approach, now called “quantitative easing,” since the 2008–2009 financial crisis, an approach they ramped up during the pandemic.

COVID-19, agricultural production, and food value chains

Over the course of the pandemic, research on how COVID-19 has affected agricultural production and food value chains has evolved: as coronavirus infection rates rose and fell and governments instituted a range of responses, the research focus shifted from projecting what might happen to reflecting on what did happen. Early studies focused on the immediate effects of the lockdowns and other restrictions on food supplies. Later studies began to delve more deeply into the diverse private and public countervailing responses — as governments sought to offset the negative impacts of lockdowns — and their effectiveness in maintaining food supply and demand. The growing number of relatively high-quality studies on agriculture and food supply chains allows for some assessment of factors that appear to have diminished or aggravated the impacts of the pandemic. The analytical framework and the methodology used to develop our findings are summarized in Box 1.

COVID-19 and food inflation scares

Rising food prices during 2021 caused concern worldwide. In January, international prices for major food items climbed to a level near the heights of the global food price crises of 2007–2008 and 2010–2011, according to the FAO Food Price Index. International prices declined in the first months of the pandemic, following the initial lockdown measures that were imposed to contain the pandemic, but by October 2021, prices in international markets had risen by about 30 percent over March 2020 levels. In many countries, consumer prices for food also surged, generating fear that this could lead to rising food insecurity (see, for example, Gerard 2021).

Impacts of COVID-19 on global poverty and food security: What more do we know now?

The death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic reached near 6 million by early February 2022, two years into the pandemic. With waves of coronavirus variants still raging and the risk of new variants emerging, the human toll will undoubtedly rise further. The socioeconomic impacts of the pandemic are believed to be vast. Yet we still know very little about the true economic costs and the full impacts on poverty, food security, educational attainment, and other social outcomes, and much less about the potentially lasting effects and setbacks to human development.

Beyond initial impacts: The evolving COVID-19 context and food system resilience

As we mark the second anniversary of the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the health, economic, and social disruptions associated with this global crisis continue to evolve. The impacts of the pandemic are prolonged and likely to endure for years to come. Poor, marginalized, and vulnerable groups have been disproportionately affected, with informal and migrant workers, refugees and displaced persons, and women and children particularly vulnerable and adversely impacted.

Smarter policies for enhanced food security and food system outcomes

The COVID-19 pandemic has emphasized a multitude of development challenges and opportunities, some of which are new and some ongoing. The disruptions caused by the pandemic have highlighted the interconnections among almost all aspects of society, including the important linkages between food systems and other sectors that are sometimes separately governed and managed. Achieving the desired food system outcomes of health, sustainability, inclusion, resilience, and efficiency (IFPRI 2021) will require alignment and coordination with other sectors such as health, industry, and social development.

COVID-19 disruptions to health and nutrition services in Uttar Pradesh, India

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to major disruptions in preventive health and nutrition services around the world, posing particular risks for vulnerable groups such as young children and pregnant women. Early estimates suggest that these disruptions could lead to more than 1 million additional child deaths and more than 56,000 additional maternal deaths worldwide.

COVID-19 undermines incomes, livelihoods in rural Myanmar

As the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded in early 2020, Myanmar avoided an early wave of infections. However, even before its first cases were confirmed, the country faced a related economic crisis. Border closures, movement restrictions, and reduced international demand for Myanmar’s goods and services severely affected the nation’s forecasted economic growth. In late 2020, Myanmar also experienced two waves of COVID-19 infections and lockdown measures, followed by a political crisis beginning in February 2021. This combination of widespread COVID-19 and political turmoil has had substantial negative impacts on the nation’s population.

Ethiopia’s social safety net effective in limiting COVID-19 impacts on rural food insecurity

The COVID-19 pandemic is undermining food and nutrition security on a global scale. IFPRI estimates show that globally, 80–140 million people were at risk of falling into extreme poverty in 2020, more than half in Africa south of the Sahara. The World Food Programme estimated that globally, the number of people facing acute food insecurity could double in the same period. These impacts — stemming from lost incomes due to lockdowns, fear of exposure, and medical expenses, as well as disruptions in food markets and value chains — are severely testing social protection systems in many countries. How effective are those systems in blunting these effects?

Waves of disease, waves of poverty: New evidence on the economic impacts of COVID-19 and political instability in Myanmar

COVID-19-related trade disruptions hit several sectors in Myanmar as early as January 2020, but it was the appearance of the country’s first cases in March 2020 and the subsequent lockdown in April that really hurt the economy. Nonessential businesses shut down, workers and traders could not leave home, and demand for labor dried up. The initial COVID-19 prevention measures worked well — resulting in only a few hundred infections in a country of over 50 million by June — but led to a sharp spike in poverty rates followed by a modest economic recovery in mid-2020. However, by September 2020, the country had faced a second, far worse phase of the crisis, with another wave of infections emerging in Rakhine in August 2020 and quickly spreading out of control to Yangon and other regions. Myanmar went from a few hundred confirmed cases in early August to more than 80,000 by late November (though this was surely a large underestimate, given low testing rates), despite widespread lockdown measures starting in mid-September. Then, just as the economy was showing signs of recovery in early 2021, the military took control of the government on February 1, 2021, sparking wide-scale protests and strikes, withdrawal of major foreign investments, crippling financial instability, and a collapse of economic confidence. To make matters worse, mid-2021 saw the Delta wave sweep through Myanmar, producing even higher rates of infection.

China’s small and medium-sized enterprises rebounded after the COVID-19 lockdown, but economic problems linger

Following the initial COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei Province in late 2019, starting in late January 2020 the Chinese government imposed draconian lockdown measures across the country to control the spread of the disease (Fang, Wang, and Yang 2020). Most small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) suspended operations. Then, as the pandemic eased in April, China began lifting the restrictions.

COVID-19’s varied impacts on fresh fruit and vegetable supply chains in Senegal

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Senegal declared a state of emergency on March 23, 2020, followed by a range of policy measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus: Transport was significantly restricted, wet markets were closed, and shops were required to limit their hours. These moves disrupted food supply chains, in particular, those for highly perishable products such as fresh fruits and vegetables (FFV).

How to ensure effective government responses as COVID-19 spreads to rural areas

As COVID-19 began spreading globally in early 2020, it quickly went beyond major cities to affect rural areas in much of the world. In low-income countries, rural health systems have been overloaded and periodic lockdowns and other restrictions have driven down incomes. Governments have responded to the economic turmoil with an array of social protection programs, and through public health campaigns pushing both safe behaviors and vaccination and providing treatment. As our 2019 IFPRI Policy Brief shows, ensuring high-quality governance and provision of services in rural areas is critical for livelihoods and economic development — and thus central to COVID-19 policy responses.

Trust in science and in government plays a crucial role in COVID-19 response

In April 2020, Tanzania’s prime minister made a simple plea: “Tanzanians should maintain trust in the government. You should continue to trust our experts who are behind every decision we make.” A month later, the country’s then president, John Magufuli, fired the head of its national COVID-19 test laboratory and committed to importing an untested herbal tonic from Madagascar that was controversially touted as a cure for the novel coronavirus despite scientists’ worries that it could lead to drug-resistant malaria.

Extraordinary COVID-19 social support programs in South Africa yield economic benefits during the pandemic period

Since the onset of economic downturns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have struggled with uneven recoveries across sectors, as some types of workers and industries were better able to resume their activities than others. Even in the best-case scenarios, recovery would have been precarious, but the spread of new virus variants has cast doubt on the hopes for rapid reopening and recovery, especially for low- and middle-income countries with low vaccination rates.

A major food transfer program in Bangladesh fell short during the COVID-19 pandemic

Public food transfer programs serve as an important safety net for those facing hunger and food insecurity in both low- and high-income countries around the world. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these programs have become even more crucial, as food insecurity and poverty rates have soared. But lockdowns and other public health restrictions can also disrupt food distribution operations and thus limit their effectiveness.

Selected country experiences during the pandemic: Policy responses and CGIAR support

With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, CGIAR pivoted its research planning to better support countries as they responded to the crisis. Despite the unprecedented, highly disruptive nature of the pandemic, CGIAR’s collaborative country work has enhanced engagement across the agrifood sector, leveraged existing capacities, and improved awareness of vulnerabilities within value chains. The insights gained from this experience may ultimately prove useful in addressing other longstanding challenges as well. In this chapter, we recount selected country experiences during the pandemic and the response of the international agricultural research system to support these countries. In the section on country experiences, we draw from IFPRI’s COVID-19 Policy Response Portal (CPR) to focus on lockdown policies in Bangladesh, Kenya, and Nigeria. We describe the steps taken by governments in these countries to address challenges in the agrifood sector and provide social protection to the vulnerable.

Crowdsourced data reveal threats to household food security in near real-time during COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic and related lockdown measures have disrupted food systems globally, leading to fluctuations in the prices of some food commodities, from local to national levels. Yet detailed data-driven evidence of the extent, timing, and localization of the impact on food security are rarely available quickly enough or with sufficient granularity to guide policy responses.

Short-term impacts of COVID-19 in rural Guatemala: Call for a closer, continuous look at the food security and nutritional patterns of vulnerable families

In early 2020, Guatemala reacted swiftly to the unfolding COVID-19 pandemic. It was one of the first countries in Latin America to impose strict measures to contain the spread of infection, including travel restrictions and a six-month nationwide lockdown beginning March 21 (eight days after its first reported case), comprising a temporary halt of activities in the private and public sectors, suspension of public transportation, and mobility restrictions, with a strict curfew from 6 p.m. to 5 a.m. According to the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), the country’s measures were among the top five in Latin America in terms of stringency.

Impact of falling remittances amid COVID-19 on Yemen’s war-torn economy

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic battered economies across the world, Yemen had already experienced a half decade of civil war, resulting in a loss of approximately 45 percent of its real GDP by the end of 2019, according to the Yemeni Ministry of Planning. As the conflict continued, remittances from Yemenis working outside the country kept many households afloat and became an increasingly important source of income, estimated at $3.77 billion in 2019 — around 13 percent of GDP.

COVID-19 and resilience innovations in food supply chains: Two years later

Two years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, food value chains have undergone some remarkable adjustments, evolving to meet rapidly changing conditions. Their capacity to make these adjustments has depended on public investments in the logistics infrastructure and wholesale markets that form the structure of food systems, as well as public policies that facilitate efficient exchange and private sector innovations, the flow of food systems.

Impacts of the COVID-19-driven rise in global rice prices on consumers in Papua New Guinea

During the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, several major rice exporting countries, grappling with rising economic uncertainties, suspended rice exports to ensure adequate domestic supply. Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Myanmar temporarily halted rice exports, contributing to spikes in rice prices on international markets. By April 2020, rice prices had increased by over 35 percent in Thailand and 20 percent in Viet Nam (important benchmark countries for international rice price monitoring). International rice prices rose an average of 25 percent during March–September 2020 and remained high (on average 36 percent higher in March 2021) compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, despite the loosening of rice export restrictions and quarantine measures in the second half of 2020.

How to support students and the learning process during India’s COVID-19 school closures

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected 1.6 billion learners worldwide, and school closures could lead to a loss of 0.3–0.9 years of schooling, according to World Bank estimates; a global shutdown of five months could result in lost earnings of $10 trillion over students’ lifetimes. The pandemic’s economic shocks are likely to increase school drop-out rates. Evidence suggests that the poor, girls, and other marginalized groups disproportionately suffer the consequences of school closures.

How India’s agrifood supply chains fared during the COVID-19 lockdown, from farm to fork

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Indian government imposed a stringent national lockdown from March 24 to May 31, 2020, which caused severe disruptions across agrifood supply chains from “farm to fork.” The government was consistently one step behind in terms of preventing these problems (Narayanan and Saha 2020b).

COVID-19 and global food security: Two years later

Two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the health, economic, and social disruptions caused by this global crisis continue to evolve. The impacts of the pandemic are likely to endure for years to come, with poor, marginalized, and vulnerable groups the most affected.

In COVID-19 & Global Food Security: Two Years Later, the editors bring together contributions from new IFPRI research, blogs, and the CGIAR COVID-19 Hub to examine the pandemic’s effects on poverty, food security, nutrition, and health around the world. This volume presents key lessons learned on food security and food system resilience in 2020 and 2021 and assesses the effectiveness of policy responses to the crisis. Looking forward, the authors consider how the pandemic experience can inform both recovery and longer-term efforts to build more resilient food systems.

Synopsis: Improving agricultural productivity in Papua New Guinea: Strategic and policy considerations

In a recent working paper, we examine staple and cash crop production yields in Papua New Guinea (PNG). In doing so, we assess the yield gap (difference between the crop yields farmers commonly obtain and what they might realize with optimal inputs and crop management) for the main staple food crops in PNG. The yield gap for sweet potato is the smallest (1/4 - 1/3 less than attainable yields), while banana shows the largest yield gap at about ¾ less than what might be achieved under intensive cultivation. In addition, we compare PNG agricultural output with areas of similar growing conditions in Indonesia to provide insight into potential investments to further spur agricultural productivity in PNG. Finally, we assess current sector policies in PNG that aim to support agricultural development as an engine for economic growth.

Improving agricultural productivity in Papua New Guinea: Strategic and policy considerations

If smallholder farming households in Papua New Guinea achieve higher crop productivity levels, progress will be made along several dimensions of the development vision for PNG – increasing GDP for the agricultural sector and the overall economy; driving growth, diversification, and transformation of local rural economies; improving food consumption; and reducing poverty. In this paper, we examine recent data on yields for the most important crops grown in PNG, assess what yields might be achieved based on productivity data from areas of Indonesia with similar growing conditions, and sketch where policy reforms could provide incentives and access to technologies to achieve higher crop yields by all farmers across PNG.

Returns to R&D investment to inform priority setting in the One CGIAR and NARS

The 2019 report of the Global Commission on Adaptation for accelerated action to adapt to climate change included a call for increased allocation of resources to international agricultural research. The production and adaptation challenges faced by agriculture will be most acutely felt in Africa and South Asia, focus regions of the CGIAR, the world’s largest public food systems research network. These challenges come at a time when the CGIAR is undergoing a transformation of its partnerships, knowledge, assets and global presence, emerging as One CGIAR, aimed at sharpening its mission and impact focus to 2030 and beyond, in line with the Sustainable Development Goals. Evidence on the impacts of CGIAR research since the 1980s have consistently found high rates of return to investment. How could this evidence on the performance of the CGIAR and its partnership with NARS in developing regions be used to inform investment priority setting and to achieve the One CGIAR goals in the coming years? We used detailed R&D investment data from the CGIAR, NARS (ASTI) and evidence from the literature on returns to CGIAR investment by crop and region to develop and calibrate a model of R&D investment that allows us to conduct priority-setting analysis of alternative CGIAR investment across research activities and regions. The model developed can be linked to global partial equilibrium and economy-wide forward-looking models to analyze the effect of different CGIAR investment options under alternative future scenarios. We checked the plausibility of the results obtained by the model calculating the Benefit-Cost ratio of historical CGIAR investments and found that each dollar invested by the CGIAR between 1971 and 2018 returned almost 10 dollars in output as the result of increased productivity, which is within the range of returns found by most recent meta-analyses impact of CGIAR investment. An application of the model to SSA shows that the best results for the CGIAR are obtained from investments in cassava and potato in Southern Africa; yams, sorghum, cassava and groundnuts in West Africa; cassava in East Africa and groundnuts and shoats in the Sahel.