Food security and nutrition

Nutrition sensitive poverty and its correlates in Papua New Guinea: Incorporating healthy diet targets into poverty measurement

As the international development community increasingly prioritizes nutrition outcomes, incorporating healthy diets into poverty measurements has important implications for what it means to be poor. Particularly for low- and middle-income countries dependent on domestic agriculture and low-cost food imports, evaluating the access to healthy diets is crucial to meeting food security goals. This paper provides the most expansive poverty assessment using the cost of basic needs approach in Papua New Guinea (PNG) in 15 years. In doing so, we compare a standard cost of basic needs poverty line where the food poverty line is defined by modest diets aligned with consumption patterns that meet a dietary energy (calorie) threshold; and a healthy diet food poverty line that meets both the dietary energy threshold and recommended nutrition targets. Results suggest that 43% of sample individuals live below the standard cost of basic needs poverty line. An additional 21% of sample individuals (64%) live below the healthy diet poverty line due to the relatively high cost of nutrient-dense foods in PNG. Multivariate regression analysis underscores the importance of household income diversification, whether via non-farm enterprise ownership or migrant remittances. Results reflect the unique challenges characterized by PNG’s remote landscape and lack of rural services, amplifying the need to improve rural-urban linkages that promote market access, educational attainment, and higher value employment opportunities.

The gendered effects of rainfall on early childhood nutrition: Evidence from Papua New Guinea

Rainfall fluctuations can significantly reduce welfare for poor rural households in low- and middle-income countries dependent on rainfed agriculture for consumption, and in some contexts these adverse effects may be borne disproportionately by vulnerable household members, particularly children and girls. We present new evidence around the effects of rainfall fluctuations on child anthropometric status in Papua New Guinea, an understudied context characterized by some of the highest stunting rates in the world. We show that negative fluctuations in rainfall within a 12-month period are associated with reduced household consumption (driven by reduced consumption of own-produced food). Moreover, when these fluctuations are observed in the first year of a child’s life, they lead to a reduction in height forage and weight-for-age (though no shift in stunting), but this effect is observed only for girls: boys seem to be protected from the adverse effects of rainfall fluctuations experienced in infancy.

Declining purchasing power of minimum wages in Papua New Guinea: Analysis of economic access to healthy diets

Key Messages
To address rising living costs which reduce the purchasing power of the minimum wage, the Government of PNG recently launched a review of the country’s minimum wage. The minimum wage has been PGK 3.50 per hour or PGK 28 per 8-hour day since July 2016. At the beginning of 2025, the minimum wage could purchase about three-quarters as much food and other goods and services compared to July 2016. The cost of a healthy diet per adult per day in urban areas increased by 35 percent from PGK 7.70 in 2021 to PGK 10.37 in 2025. The cost of the healthy diet was the most expensive in Port Moresby—PGK 11.15 per adult per day in 2025 and increased the most in Kokopo (54 percent) from PGK 5.81 to PGK 8.92 between 2021 and 2025. One and a half full-time urban minimum wage earners earn just enough to feed a healthy diet to a family of five in 2025, with no money remaining for essential non-food expenses such as clothing, shelter, transportation, health, and education. The government recently published a public notice of Goods and Services Tax (GST) zero-rating of essential goods effective 1st June 2025 to 30th June 2026. We re-evaluate the purchasing power of a minimum wage by decreasing the price of tinned tuna and rice by 10% (reflective of the GST zero-rating) on Q1 2025 recorded prices. Assuming prices remain constant (with no shifts in demand due to decreased tax), the cost of the average urban healthy diet in the first quarter of 2025 is 4.7 percent lower without the GST (PGK 9.87) compared to the cost of a healthy diet with the GST (PGK 10.35) — slightly improving the purchasing power of minimum wage earners.

Household wellbeing in rural Papua New Guinea: Poverty analysis from the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey

This analysis provides the first poverty assessment using the cost of basic needs approach in Papua New Guinea in 1.5 decades. The cost of basic needs poverty methodology is the standard approach to estimating poverty in low- and middle-income countries. It aims to reflect the cost of a food basket and nonfood needs to secure a healthy life and minimum standard of living. Using the cost of basic needs approach, we calculate and compare two poverty measurements. First, we compute a standard (traditional) cost of basic needs poverty line where the food poverty line is defined by a dietary energy (calorie) threshold. Second, we extend the standard cost of basic needs approach to calculate a healthy diet food poverty line that meets both the dietary energy threshold, as well as recommended nutrition targets.

Results suggest that 43 percent of sample individuals live below the standard cost of basic needs poverty line. When recalculating the poverty line to account for a healthy diet threshold (a mix of food groups set at quantities consistent with dietary guidelines), we find that 64 percent of the sample is below the healthy diet poverty line. On average, households within the survey sample over-consume the recommended daily quantity of staples and fats, however daily consumption of vegetables, fruits, and protein-rich foods (e.g., fish, meat, nuts) fall short of recommended targets.

The above poverty analysis begs the question of what characteristics are associated with higher income earning households (we use per capita consumption-expenditure as the rural income proxy). Regression analysis suggests that greater production assets (land and labor), education, market access, and income diversification (via non-farm businesses and migrant remittances) are associated with higher household incomes. While we hypothesized that households engaged in cash crop sales (i.e. cocoa, coffee, betelnut, horticulture) would be significantly better off, we find that only cocoa farming households have significantly higher incomes.

The regression analysis reveals that facilitated access to a market is one of the most important indicators explaining per capita consumption-expenditure (i.e. income per person). Households that are more than 4 hours from a market have about 25 percent less income compared to households that are within 2 hours from a market. Conversely, households that report owning a small business (non-farm enterprise) are associated with approximately 25 percent greater consumption-expenditure per capita. While market access and income diversification are important to household incomes, weather shocks such as floods are associated with significant declines (8 percent) in per capita consumption-expenditure. Given the above results, a pilot social safety net program in more remote (greater than 4 hours from a market) and flood prone areas, where household incomes are significantly lower, may provide important insights on the most efficient mechanisms to build resilience among PNG’s vulnerable population. Including a community asset building component (e.g., building and maintenance of rural feeder roads and bridges) in the social safety net program could be tested to understand how best to support rural-urban market linkages and incentivize off-farm employment.

Understanding that a social safety net program requires significant resourcing (including financial, logistics and time), there are other opportunities to improve rural welfare within the country. Facilitating remittance transfers from migrants to rural households via electronic banking services and easing banking costs for rural households may increase remittance payments. In addition, facilitating access to primary education via reduced school fees and increasing school attendance via school feeding programs could provide greater income earning opportunities for better educated households, as well as (if designed properly) fill some of the nutrition gaps demonstrated by the large share of individuals that live under the healthy diet poverty line presented in this paper.

Household wellbeing in rural Papua New Guinea: Analysis from the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey

Key Messages
 The PNG 2023 Rural Household Survey collected detailed consumption and expenditure data, which allows the first cost of basic needs poverty assessment since the 2009/10 Household Income Expenditure Survey. However, it is important to note that the survey is not nationally representative.
 43% of sample individuals are estimated to be poor relative to the standard cost of basic needs poverty lines (poor is defined as those who live in households that do not have sufficient resources to acquire calorie adequate diets while also meeting basic non-food needs).
 64% of sample individuals are estimated to be poor relative to the healthy diet poverty lines (poor is defined as those who live in households that do not have sufficient resources to meet healthy dietary guidelines while also meeting basic non-food needs).
 The healthy diet poverty line incorporates a higher share of nutrient dense food groups (vegetables, fruits, meat and fish, etc.) and thus is about 1/3 more costly than the standard poverty line.
 On average, households within the survey sample over-consume staples and fats compared to healthy guidelines and under-consume vegetables, fruits, animal source foods, and nuts/pulses.
 Smaller households and households with greater production assets (land and labor), education completion, market access, and income diversification (via non-farm businesses and migrant remittances) are associated with higher household consumption-expenditure (income proxy).
 Among households engaged in cash crop sales (i.e., cocoa, coffee, betelnut, horticulture) only cocoa farming households have significantly higher consumption-expenditure (income proxy).
 Targeted safety net and community asset building programs could reduce rural poverty by increasing agriculture productivity, supporting rural-urban market linkages, improving demand for rural goods, and incentivizing off-farm employment.
 Facilitating remittance transfers from migrants to rural households and facilitating access to primary education could improve rural incomes in the short and long term, respectively.

Child growth and development in rural Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Policy Support Program

In Papua New Guinea (PNG), more than 80 percent of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods, with a vast majority working as smallholder farmers. Recognizing the need to revitalize and transform its agriculture sector, PNG’s government has set ambitious growth targets for agricultural exports and domestic agricultural production. It considers strategic investment in agricultural research and food security fundamental to overall economic growth and structural transformation.

The Papua New Guinea Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Policy Support Program (PNG-AFNP), supported by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) through the Australian High Commission (AHC) in Port Moresby, and the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), will support PNG’s forward-looking strategy for economic growth and transformation through data-driven policy analysis, capability development, and strategic partnerships to inform policy dialogue and investment opportunities.

Synopsis: Rural household welfare in Papua New Guinea: Food security and nutrition challenges

While a lot of development planning and policy attention has been dedicated to achieving dietary energy (i.e., calorie) adequacy to ensure food security and support greater household wellbeing, nutrition adequacy is also necessary to achieve improved human development indicators (e.g., improved educational attainment, decreased disease prevalence, and decreased child stunting prevalence). This study (explained in detail in the comprehensive working paper) calculates two poverty lines based on the costs that an individual faces in PNG to secure a diet consisting of foods typically consumed by poor households adjusted to align with a calorie threshold and healthy diet thresholds, respectively, together with modest non-food expenditures. Results suggest that over half of the sample households are unable to meet the necessary costs of ensuring an calorie equate modest food basket along with some basic non-food needs (Schmidt et al., 2022). Comparing the healthy diet poverty line to average household income suggests that attaining a nutritious, balanced diet while meeting other basic needs remains out of reach for nearly 4/5 of the rural sample households. Based on the study results, we identify 3 key interventions to improve food and nutrition security in vulnerable areas. First, PNG will continue to face disruptive climate events that quickly increase agricultural vulnerability and food insecurity in remote areas with limited market access and underdeveloped support services. The government of PNG in collaboration with development partners should pilot a series of social safety net programs that can assist vulnerable populations. These programs can be designed to build resiliency during non-shock seasons or years, such as improving livestock holdings, diversifying crop mix, investing in sustainable land management, and building agricultural production and other rural infrastructure for improved marketing and access to agricultural inputs. Second, a concerted effort is needed to promote the importance of nutrition at all levels of society. At the household level, training should aim to instill (for both men and women) the value of a costlier, but more nutritious diet. District and regional government officials, healthcare workers and other key stakeholders should be trained on methodologies to integrate nutrition programming into other development activities. High-level government dialogue and learning should aim to encourage greater coordination between local and federal government officials and across government departments to ensure improved nutrition outcomes for greater agricultural productivity and economic growth. Finally, PNG (both government and development partners) must invest in more timely data collection of key welfare indicators to inform nutrition targets and assistance programming.

Rural household welfare in Papua New Guinea: Food security and nutrition challenges

Papua New Guinea continues to encourage a policy focus on food and nutrition security. The PNG National Nutrition Policy (2016-2026) and Nutrition Strategic Action Plan (2018-2022) (NSAP) set a path to improve coordination, secure sufficient funding, and improve technical capacity of nutrition-focused pro gram implementation. As policy prioritizes improved nutrition outcomes, it is important to understand the cost that households face of securing a higher level of nutrition. Ensuring a healthy diet that meets nutrition standards is relatively expensive in PNG. The analysis presented in this paper, which uses detailed household food and non-food consumption data suggests that 4/5 of households in the survey sample live below the healthy diet poverty line (which sets a calorie threshold and defines healthy diet nutrition targets). That is, these households do not have the income available (or do not consume sufficient food and non-food goods) to meet their basic needs which includes securing a nutritious diet that meets food based die tary guidelines.

Synopsis: Improving agricultural productivity in Papua New Guinea: Strategic and policy considerations

In a recent working paper, we examine staple and cash crop production yields in Papua New Guinea (PNG). In doing so, we assess the yield gap (difference between the crop yields farmers commonly obtain and what they might realize with optimal inputs and crop management) for the main staple food crops in PNG. The yield gap for sweet potato is the smallest (1/4 - 1/3 less than attainable yields), while banana shows the largest yield gap at about ¾ less than what might be achieved under intensive cultivation. In addition, we compare PNG agricultural output with areas of similar growing conditions in Indonesia to provide insight into potential investments to further spur agricultural productivity in PNG. Finally, we assess current sector policies in PNG that aim to support agricultural development as an engine for economic growth.

Improving agricultural productivity in Papua New Guinea: Strategic and policy considerations

If smallholder farming households in Papua New Guinea achieve higher crop productivity levels, progress will be made along several dimensions of the development vision for PNG – increasing GDP for the agricultural sector and the overall economy; driving growth, diversification, and transformation of local rural economies; improving food consumption; and reducing poverty. In this paper, we examine recent data on yields for the most important crops grown in PNG, assess what yields might be achieved based on productivity data from areas of Indonesia with similar growing conditions, and sketch where policy reforms could provide incentives and access to technologies to achieve higher crop yields by all farmers across PNG.