Climate resilient agriculture

× In Papua New Guinea (PNG), more than 80 percent of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods, with a vast majority working as smallholder farmers. Recognizing the need to revitalize and transform its agriculture sector, PNG’s government has set ambitious growth targets for agricultural exports and domestic agricultural production. It considers strategic investment in agricultural research and food security fundamental to overall economic growth and structural transformation.

The Papua New Guinea Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Policy Support Program (PNG-AFNP), supported by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) through the Australian High Commission (AHC) in Port Moresby, and the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), will support PNG’s forward-looking strategy for economic growth and transformation through data-driven policy analysis, capability development, and strategic partnerships to inform policy dialogue and investment opportunities.

× Papua New Guinea ranks among the countries most at risk to natural disasters and climate change (World Bank, 2021). Increased exposure to natural hazards such as coastal and inland river flooding as well as landslides are likely to intensify in PNG, affecting agriculture production patterns and household livelihoods. In addition, the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report suggests that Pacific coral reefs face a negative outlook under all climate change scenarios, whereby increased coral bleaching will have significant negative impacts on the health of coastal fisheries in PNG (Nurse et al., 2014).

× A severe El Niño event in 2015/16 decimated an important share of Papua New Guinea's (PNG) local crop production, leaving 10 per cent of the population with significant food shortages. Lack of recent socio‐economic data and analysis of the country's rural population impeded efforts to plan and mitigate the ensuing food crisis. This paper presents the most recent poverty analysis in Papua New Guinea in nearly a decade, and a renewed effort to inform rural production, consumption and livelihood patterns in some of the country's most remote, lowland areas. We designed a rural household survey that collected detailed consumption and expenditure data to explore poverty prevalence and correlates of per capita household expenditure. Results suggest that approximately half of the sampled individuals live in households with total per capita expenditures below the poverty line. Climate shocks have significant and possibly long‐term consequences for household welfare. Households that experienced a drought in the last 5 years are associated with significantly lower per capita expenditures. Labour diversification, via migration, is associated with greater welfare. Households with at least one migrant member are associated with 13 per cent greater per capita expenditure.

× Papua New Guinea (PNG) is the country with the largest rural population share in the East Asia and Pacific region. In addition, PNG is affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic events that in severe years cause significant food insecurity due to failed agricultural production. Shrinking land holdings for agricultural production due to the growing population together with climate risk motivates many rural households to explore off-farm income generating opportunities. The analysis reported on here evaluates the importance of nonfarm employment in rural areas in PNG in diversifying risk to household welfare (associated with weather shocks, crop pests and diseases, agricultural price fluctuations, etc.), in smoothing seasonal income fluctuations, and in absorbing excess labor in households with limited agricultural resources. Our study draws upon a wide-ranging literature focused on the role of nonfarm enterprises in the livelihood strategies of rural households globally, e.g., de Janvry and Sadoulet 2001; Lanjouw and Lanjouw 2001; Jayne et al. 2003; Barrett et al. 2005; Haggblade et al. 2007; Lay et al. 2008. We use data collected from rural households in PNG between May and July 2018 by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The survey was administered to 1,026 households in 70 communities across specific districts in East Sepik, Madang, and West Sepik provinces and in the Autonomous Region of Bougainville. Respondent households were asked detailed questions about any nonfarm enterprises (NFE) in which they were involved, including questions on ownership, labor characteristics, and income generation. We explore how engaging in an NFE affects household welfare. In doing so, we evaluate two questions: 1) What barriers to entry exist for male- versus female-owned NFEs? 2) Do the welfare effects of NFE ownership differ by the sex of the owner? Overall, we find that households with an NFE have significantly higher annual per capita consumption compared to matched households without an NFE, amounting to an average increase in the value of annual household consumption of 180 kina (PGK) per capita. In addition, households with an NFE consume approximately 9.5 grams more protein per person per day and achieve greater diversity in their diets compared to households without an NFE. We find that the positive effects of NFE ownership on welfare outcomes are largely driven by male-owned and jointly-owned (male and female) NFEs. The welfare outcomes attributable to female-owned NFEs are much smaller.

× Climate change projections internationally accepted as being reliable indicate that most countries in the Pacific region will suffer large-scale negative impacts from climate change. These impacts are likely to include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, increasingly unpredictable rainfall patterns, rising sea levels, and intensification of extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones and El Niño-related droughts. Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to such climatic changes, since on average, two-thirds of the region’s population depends on agriculture and fisheries for its livelihood and food security. This is certainly true of at least two of the three countries analyzed under the study on which this report is based, the latter including Fiji, Papua New Guinea (PNG), and Solomon Islands. PNG and Solomon Islands are both vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change since the percentage share of agriculture in total employment is relatively high in both countries (69% in PNG and 68% in Solomon Islands). Similarly, because of their relatively high percentage share of agriculture in the gross domestic product (GDP) (36% in PNG and 39% in Solomon Islands during 2000-2009), the current capacity of both countries for adapting to climate change is limited.

× The 193 individual country profiles capture the status and progress of all UN Member States, and the 80+ indicators include a wealth of information on child, adolescent and adult anthropometry and nutritional status, in addition to intervention coverage, food supply, economics, and demography. This tool is particularly useful for nutrition champions at the country-level, as it presents a wide range of evidence needed to assess country progress in improving nutrition and nutrition-related outcomes.