Publications

× Sweet potato plays an important role in the food system of Papua New Guinea (PNG), accounting for over 12 percent of total calories consumed in the country (IFPRI,2023). Three-quarters of sweet potato production takes place in the highlands where it is harvested throughout the year (Chang et al., 2013). However, the production and consumption of sweet potatoes in PNG faces several challenges, including climate change, pests and diseases, and market access constraints. In particular, a significant decline in sweet potato production due to an El Niño-related drought in early 2024 is a realistic possibility.

× From May to December 2023, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) implemented a rural household survey that collected detailed data on rural household food consumption and expenditures, agricultural production practices, employment profiles, child and mother 24-hour diet recall, and child anthropometry measurements in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The research team carried out the survey, which used location-based sampling, across five agroecological study areas, of which four of the areas were defined using elevation and rainfall variation. The five agroecological survey areas were seasonal highlands, nonseasonal highlands, seasonal lowlands, nonseasonal lowlands, and islands (the islands survey sample was not disaggregated by elevation or precipitation patterns). In identifying seasonal and nonseasonal survey areas, we adapted the rainfall seasonality categories established by Bourke and Harwood (2009), who evaluated the relative difference in rainfall between the wet and the dry season using resource mapping units defined by the PNG Resource Information System (PNGRIS). The areas of the country that experience large seasonal variation in rainfall (heavy to light, depending on the season) are classified as seasonal, whereas the areas that experience moderate to continuously heavy rainfall throughout the year are classified as nonseasonal (see Figure A1.1 in the appendix for the survey seasonality classification by area). In nonseasonal areas, agricultural growing conditions remain similar year-round, whereas seasonal rainfall areas have agricultural conditions that necessitate a variety of production strategies. Lowland and highland areas were defined using elevation data; areas 1,000 meters or more above sea level were classified as highlands, and those below 1,000 meters were classified as lowlands.

× In 2023, Papua New Guinea introduced a partial ban on poultry imports from Australia and Asian countries (representing about 70 percent of total PNG poultry imports) in response to the biosecurity threat posed by Avian Influenza (bird flu). Such a restriction on supply has the potential to lead to sharp price increases, steep reductions in household consumption and greater food insecurity.

× This bulletin presents food price trends during the fourth quarter of 2023 and compares current prices with those of previous years (2021-2022) from major markets across Papua New Guinea using data collected by Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPD). It is important to note that during the fourth quarter of 2023, none of the markets had a complete set of fortnightly price data. While Port Moresby had fortnightly observations for October and December, the rest of the markets (Goroka, Banz Kokopo, Lae) collected price data on a monthly basis. No data was collected in the 4th quarter from Mt Hagen market. To access the complete and comprehensive price dataset, you can download it from our website. This bulletin reports the average real monthly fresh food price data from Port Moresby, Goroka, Banz, and Kokopo markets. The prices presented in this report are in real terms, adjusted for inflation using FAO consumer price index (CPI).

× This bulletin provides an overview of select food prices during the second quarter of 2024, from April to June. During this quarter, two rounds of data were collected per month across all markets, except for Goroka in April and Lae in May, where only one round of data was collected. The prices presented here are the monthly averages. The graphs in this bulletin show price changes within the second quarter and compare second quarter prices with the first quarter of 2024, between January and March. To access the complete food price dataset, please download it from our website.

× From May to December 2023, IFPRI implemented the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey which was designed to understand rural livelihoods and welfare across different areas of PNG (Schmidt et al., 2024). Given the rural nature of the survey sample, almost all surveyed households depend on their own-farm production (predominantly starchy roots and tubers) to meet daily caloric needs. On average, households reported utilizing about 1.6 hectares of land for agriculture cultivation at the time of the survey. The survey collected a detailed account of the quantity of food types consumed by the household in order to estimate the average caloric intake per adult equivalent. Comparing the estimated caloric intake reported by surveyed households, with a recommended calorie intake suggests that only 45 per cent of individuals in surveyed households meet the recommended daily caloric intake for a lightly active individual. The survey also collected anthropometry data for children under five years of age and found that 36 percent of surveyed children were stunted in their growth. The 2023 Rural Household Survey represents an important effort in collecting a wide breadth of information about rural livelihoods. However, greater investments of in-depth data collection and analysis should be undertaken to examine specific components of PNG household livelihood strategies.

× In Papua New Guinea (PNG), more than 80 percent of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods, with a vast majority working as smallholder farmers. Recognizing the need to revitalize and transform its agriculture sector, PNG’s government has set ambitious growth targets for agricultural exports and domestic agricultural production. It considers strategic investment in agricultural research and food security fundamental to overall economic growth and structural transformation.

The Papua New Guinea Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Policy Support Program (PNG-AFNP), supported by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) through the Australian High Commission (AHC) in Port Moresby, and the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), will support PNG’s forward-looking strategy for economic growth and transformation through data-driven policy analysis, capability development, and strategic partnerships to inform policy dialogue and investment opportunities.

× Although the economy of Papua New Guinea is heavily influenced by the oil and natural gas sector, which accounts for 30 percent of GDP and most of the country’s foreign exchange earnings, small-scale agriculture continues to be the major source of livelihoods for most of the population. Much of the food crop production (particularly starchy staples such as sweet potatoes, cassava, yams and sago) is not traded internationally; however, oil palm, coffee and cocoa are major exports. A large share of agricultural production undergoes little value-added through processing and much of it is consumed by farm households themselves. Thus, there would appear to be substantial scope for increases in employment and incomes through further development of the broader agrifood system, including agroprocessing, trade and transport, and food services.

× This bulletin provides an overview of select food prices during the second quarter of 2024, from April to June. During this quarter, two rounds of data were collected per month across all markets, except for Goroka in April and Lae in May, where only one round of data was collected. The prices presented here are the monthly averages. The graphs in this bulletin show price changes within the second quarter and compare second quarter prices with the first quarter of 2024, between January and March. To access the complete food price dataset, please download it from our website.

× Despite poultry being lauded as a relatively affordable source of protein and micronutrients in many lower-income countries, chicken meat is twice as expensive in PNG compared to nearby Southeast Asian countries. Recent rural household consumption data collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) suggests that an important share of households do not eat enough protein to meet healthy dietary guidelines (Schmidt et al., 2024). Poultry, along with fish and pork, are the three most important animal-source protein foods in the country, yet these products remain financially prohibitive to a large share of the population.

This paper explores the unique challenges and opportunities within PNG’s poultry sector using a "growth diagnostic" approach (pioneered by Rodrik, 2010). Through interviews with key stakeholders across the poultry value chain, we found that while high feed costs persist as a significant challenge, poultry farmers have yet to adopt additional cost-reduction strategies, such as establishing small-scale regional feed mills, utilizing local feed ingredients, and diversifying feed and input imports. An intriguing puzzle of PNG’s poultry sector is the limited number of small-scale producers successfully transitioning to medium-scale operations. This primarily stems from high transport costs and restricted access to input and sales markets. The challenges of marketing chicken in PNG have received less attention than production. Drawing on the experiences of successful models in other countries and considering the specific situation of PNG's poultry sector, fostering poultry production and processing clusters (e.g., in Lae suburban areas) emerges as a potential strategy to address production, transportation, and marketing constraints. By concentrating production, value chain clustering can enhance access to essential services (e.g. slaughtering and cold storage), improve market access, and reduce overall costs. While clustering holds promise for PNG’s poultry value chain, its success hinges upon joint action between the public and private sectors, as well as NGOs operating within the value chain.

× This report provides an analysis of food price trends for the third quarter of 2024, covering the period from July to September. During this quarter, two rounds of data were collected per month from Kokopo, Banz, and Port Moresby in July and August. However, in September, only one round of data was collected from all markets except Port Moresby (no data collected). Only one round of data was collected in Goroka for each month in the 3rd quarter. In Lae, food price data was collected only once in August for the entire third quarter. These data gaps affect the comparability of the reported price trend and caution should be used to draw conclusions on price fluctuations. The graphs in this bulletin show price changes within the third quarter and compare the third quarter prices with the second quarter of 2024, between April and June. To access the complete food price dataset and interactive food price graphing tool, please visit our website.

× Users can download time series food price data, and build graphs and tables for over 20 different food crops at our food price database webpage: https://www.ifpri.org/project/freshfood-price-analysis-papua-newguinea.
The average (nominal) price of staple foods in Port Moresby was 22 percent less (in nominal terms) in the 4th quarter of 2022 compared to quarter 4 of 2021.
The 2022 quarter 4 price of sweet potato and taro in Kokopo was 22 percent greater compared to the same quarter in 2021. In addition green leafy vegetables price increased, in part due to unseasonably dry weather in East New Britain.
Despite a rising global food price trend in 2022 as a result of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, increasing fuel prices, and weather stress, the price of imported rice in PNG remains relatively stable, with an average annual (nominal) price variation of 10 percent across 4 markets.
In December 2022 a kilo of rice (Roots rice) cost 4.03 PGK/kg, compared to 5.07 PGK/kg in Port Moresby.

× Download time series food price data, and build graphs and tables for over 20 different food crops at our food price database webpage: https://www.ifpri.org/project/freshfood-price-analysis-papua-newguinea. In the first quarter of 2023, the average price of sweet potatoes (except in Port Moresby) and taro declined by 14 and 17 percent, respectively, in all markets. Rice prices remained stable in all markets during the 1st quarter of 2023, however long-term (2021 real) rice price (1 kilo bag) has increased 13% between the 2nd quarter of 2021 and the 1st quarter of 2023. Leafy vegetables (aibika, choko-tips, English cabbage, pakchoi) prices increased 31 percent (in nominal terms) in Kokopo between January and March. However, average green leafy vegetable prices in Port Moresby decreased by 19 percent, except for Aibika. In Mt Hagen, choko-tips and pakchoi prices were up by 27 percent from January, while aibika and English cabbage decreased by 11 percent between January and March.

× Context: The average consumption of protein foods in Papua New Guinea (PNG) remains insufficient to meet nutritious diet guidelines, especially in rural areas. While an expanding literature has demonstrated that poultry is a cost-efficient animal source food to increase protein intake, rural households in PNG face high prices at the market for poultry meat. Similarly, the high price of poultry production inputs constrains greater uptake of rural poultry production. PNG’s heavy reliance on feed (and feed input) imports, as well as high transportation costs and insufficient rural manufacturing and processing infrastructure creates limited opportunities for rural subsistence and commercial poultry production growth.
Objective: There is a lack of value chain studies to understand the feasibility of expanding the local mini livestock feed mill model in PNG to increase poultry feed supply in underserved areas. This study builds from earlier work on rural livestock feed infrastructure programs, and aims to fill the knowledge gap on the opportunities and constraints for expanding domestic livestock feed production and distribution via rural mini feed mills.
Method: The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the National Agriculture Research Institute (NARI) conducted in-depth qualitative interviews with 8 mini mills and 13 poultry farmers across 4 highland provinces during October and November 2022. We synthesize the interview transcriptions of the qualitative interviews in tandem with quantitative analysis of food consumption and agri-food trade data, as well as the authors’ own field observations in this paper.
Results: The in-depth interviews showed that the poultry farmers who purchased from local mini feed mills substantially lowered their feed costs, resulting in greater gross profits compared to rural poultry farmers that only sourced feed from commercial feed suppliers. However, the mini feed mills that we interviewed outlined a series of challenges in sustaining rural feed mills in PNG. The main challenges of running a successful mill included feed mill equipment procurement, electricity reliability, reliable raw ingredient supply, mini mill retailing to secure a client base, and adequate information about feed formulation. We identified two potential approaches that have overcome many of the identified challenges, that could be replicated and adapted to expand mini feed mill operations in the Highlands. The first approach is a farmer cooperative model that incorporates credit and feed delivery services to cooperative farmers. In doing so, they are able to better estimate volume demand for processed feed and accommodate feed production accordingly. The second approach follows a lead firm model, whereby a local farm supply retail outlet is expanding its business to include livestock feed production and supply, overcoming equipment procurement constraints given their previously developed business model focused on farm implement supply. Our evaluation provides detailed costs and benefits of both approaches for potential expansion of these livestock feed producer and distributor models.

× Download time series food price data, and build graphs and tables for over 20 different food crops at our food price database webpage: https://www.ifpri.org/project/freshfood-price-analysis-papua-new-guinea. Price trends in Q2, 2023Staple Crops: Between Q1 and Q2, the price of sweet potato declined 19 percent (except in Lae, up 30 percent), taro decreased 5 percent (except Lae and Banz, up 11 percent), cassava fell 8 percent (except Goroka, up 17 percent), and cooking banana cooking decreased 14 percent (except Lae and Banz, up 16 and 5 percent, respectively). Vitamin-dense foods: On average, vegetable (aibika, choko-tips, English cabbage, carrot, and capsicum) prices increased 15 percent between Q1 and Q2, except in Goroka, Kokopo, and Mt Hagen, where the price of aibika, English cabbage, and carrot decreased by 8 percent. Fresh Fruits: Lemon and orange prices decreased 15 percent and 8 percent between Q1 and Q2, while ripe banana, watermelon, and pawpaw slightly increased by 4 percent. Compared to other markets, the price of oranges and lemons are expensive in Port Moresby at 11.5 PGK/kg and 7.6 PGK/kg, respectively. Banz, Mt Hagen, and Goroka experienced average price increases in ripe banana, pawpaw, and watermelon of 21, 14 and 21 percent, respectively.

× Papua New Guinea ranks among the countries most at risk to natural disasters and climate change (World Bank, 2021). Increased exposure to natural hazards such as coastal and inland river flooding as well as landslides are likely to intensify in PNG, affecting agriculture production patterns and household livelihoods. In addition, the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report suggests that Pacific coral reefs face a negative outlook under all climate change scenarios, whereby increased coral bleaching will have significant negative impacts on the health of coastal fisheries in PNG (Nurse et al., 2014).

× Download time series food price data, and build graphs and tables for over 20 different food crops at our food price database webpage: https://www.ifpri.org/project/fresh food-price-analysis-papua-new-guinea
Price trends in Q3, 2023
Staple Crops: Sweet potato prices were relatively stable across all markets, with prices ticking upwards at the end of the third quarter in highlands markets. Comparing quarter 2 and 3 average prices on specific commodities, Port Moresby experienced the largest increase in taro price/kg at 76 percent while Banz experienced a 10 percent decrease in cassava price/kg.
Vitamin-dense foods: vegetable prices varied across markets in the third quarter of 2023, with some prices decreasing and others increasing. Prices of most vegetables in Port Moresby decreased from August to September, while prices of English cabbage, capsicum, and carrots in Lae increased by 10%.
Fresh Fruits: Prices varied across markets in the second and third quarters of 2023. Ripe banana prices increased in Lae and Banz but decreased in Port Moresby, Mt Hagen, and Goroka. Lemon prices increased in all markets except Lae.

× This bulletin presents food price data compiled by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA) from markets across the country to track food price trends and inform policymakers. In addition, users can access a web-based interactive dashboard for visualizing monthly prices of over 20 different food types over time. Price data collected in 2021 had comparatively higher number of observations compared to the previous year. However, data collection was interrupted in August through mid-September due to logistical challenges and market closures as a result of the COVID-19 surge in PNG, mainly in highland markets, creating gaps in the time series price data.

× If smallholder farming households in Papua New Guinea achieve higher crop productivity levels, progress will be made along several dimensions of the development vision for PNG – increasing GDP for the agricultural sector and the overall economy; driving growth, diversification, and transformation of local rural economies; improving food consumption; and reducing poverty. In this paper, we examine recent data on yields for the most important crops grown in PNG, assess what yields might be achieved based on productivity data from areas of Indonesia with similar growing conditions, and sketch where policy reforms could provide incentives and access to technologies to achieve higher crop yields by all farmers across PNG.

× In a recent working paper, we examine staple and cash crop production yields in Papua New Guinea (PNG). In doing so, we assess the yield gap (difference between the crop yields farmers commonly obtain and what they might realize with optimal inputs and crop management) for the main staple food crops in PNG. The yield gap for sweet potato is the smallest (1/4 - 1/3 less than attainable yields), while banana shows the largest yield gap at about ¾ less than what might be achieved under intensive cultivation. In addition, we compare PNG agricultural output with areas of similar growing conditions in Indonesia to provide insight into potential investments to further spur agricultural productivity in PNG. Finally, we assess current sector policies in PNG that aim to support agricultural development as an engine for economic growth.

× During the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, several major rice exporting countries, grappling with rising economic uncertainties, suspended rice exports to ensure adequate domestic supply. Viet Nam, Cambodia, and Myanmar temporarily halted rice exports, contributing to spikes in rice prices on international markets. By April 2020, rice prices had increased by over 35 percent in Thailand and 20 percent in Viet Nam (important benchmark countries for international rice price monitoring). International rice prices rose an average of 25 percent during March–September 2020 and remained high (on average 36 percent higher in March 2021) compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, despite the loosening of rice export restrictions and quarantine measures in the second half of 2020.

× The Nexus Project is a collaboration between IFPRI and its partners, including national statistical agencies and research institutions. Our aim is to improve the quality of social accounting matrices (SAMs) used for computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The Nexus Project develops toolkits and establishes common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. This addresses the need for greater transparency and consistency in SAM construction to strengthen model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries. Nexus SAMs allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structure, especially agriculture-food systems. The Nexus Project’s guiding principles are that all data should be traceable to original sources and/or assumptions, and that all SAMs should be freely available online. Greater transparency and accessibility should facilitate more data validation and participation of the modeling community. Statistics are continuously being revised and errors are often only identified when data is used for analysis, and so we welcome your suggestions on how the SAMs can be improved to reflect new and/or better information.

× The per kilo sweet potato (2020 real) price in Port Moresby and Lae in the 1st quarter of 2022 were nearly double the per kilo sweet potato price of the 1st quarter of 2021. The price of cassava and taro held stable in quarter 1 with minimal price changes between January and April across all markets. While, globally, commodity food prices are rising due to supply chain issues and concerns over the Russia-Ukraine conflict, thus far rice prices in PNG remain stable. Vitamin dense fresh vegetables are more costly than staple foods in PNG. However, in Goroka, Mt. Hagen, and Lae, the kg prices of broccoli, carrot and cabbage in the first quarter of 2022 were comparable to taro and cooking banana.

× Policymakers in Papua New Guinea face difficult choices as to how best to promote economic growth and reduce poverty in the context of vast differences in technology and infrastructure across the country. Fluctuations in world prices of petroleum, minerals, and export crops complicate the management of the economy because of their large impacts on export earnings and government revenues, as well as household welfare. Moreover, other shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic that shut down major parts of the economies of PNG and the rest of the world, have far-reaching effects on various economic sectors, as well as the health and welfare of the population.
This paper presents an analysis of investment options in the agricultural sector and the effects of major economic shocks to the PNG economy using an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that provides estimates of the economic linkages between production, household incomes, consumption, investment, and trade. The model’s base data, a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2019, and many of the parameters are derived from the national accounts, household surveys and other data for PNG. It is important to realize, however, that even though the SAM and model structure provide a framework that guarantees a consistency of many of the assumptions, there remain many uncertainties in the data. Thus, the results presented here should not be interpreted as exact estimates, but only approximations of potential effects of policies and external shocks.
The plan of this paper is as follows. Chapter 2 provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last two decades, highlighting the declining share of agriculture in GDP despite positive agricultural GDP growth rates and changes in the real exchange rate that have major implications for incentives in the economy. Chapter 3 then presents a summary of the economy-wide model used in the analysis. Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper. Design of the model simulations and model results are discussed in Chapter 4. These simulations cover various investments in agriculture and transport infrastructure, increases in world prices of petroleum and natural gas, price increases for agricultural exports and hypothetical carbon credits tied to a reduction in exports of forestry products. Chapter 5 concludes with a summary of the main findings, policy implications and suggested areas for further work.

× Papua New Guinea continues to encourage a policy focus on food and nutrition security. The PNG National Nutrition Policy (2016-2026) and Nutrition Strategic Action Plan (2018-2022) (NSAP) set a path to improve coordination, secure sufficient funding, and improve technical capacity of nutrition-focused pro gram implementation. As policy prioritizes improved nutrition outcomes, it is important to understand the cost that households face of securing a higher level of nutrition. Ensuring a healthy diet that meets nutrition standards is relatively expensive in PNG. The analysis presented in this paper, which uses detailed household food and non-food consumption data suggests that 4/5 of households in the survey sample live below the healthy diet poverty line (which sets a calorie threshold and defines healthy diet nutrition targets). That is, these households do not have the income available (or do not consume sufficient food and non-food goods) to meet their basic needs which includes securing a nutritious diet that meets food based die tary guidelines.

× While a lot of development planning and policy attention has been dedicated to achieving dietary energy (i.e., calorie) adequacy to ensure food security and support greater household wellbeing, nutrition adequacy is also necessary to achieve improved human development indicators (e.g., improved educational attainment, decreased disease prevalence, and decreased child stunting prevalence). This study (explained in detail in the comprehensive working paper) calculates two poverty lines based on the costs that an individual faces in PNG to secure a diet consisting of foods typically consumed by poor households adjusted to align with a calorie threshold and healthy diet thresholds, respectively, together with modest non-food expenditures. Results suggest that over half of the sample households are unable to meet the necessary costs of ensuring an calorie equate modest food basket along with some basic non-food needs (Schmidt et al., 2022). Comparing the healthy diet poverty line to average household income suggests that attaining a nutritious, balanced diet while meeting other basic needs remains out of reach for nearly 4/5 of the rural sample households. Based on the study results, we identify 3 key interventions to improve food and nutrition security in vulnerable areas. First, PNG will continue to face disruptive climate events that quickly increase agricultural vulnerability and food insecurity in remote areas with limited market access and underdeveloped support services. The government of PNG in collaboration with development partners should pilot a series of social safety net programs that can assist vulnerable populations. These programs can be designed to build resiliency during non-shock seasons or years, such as improving livestock holdings, diversifying crop mix, investing in sustainable land management, and building agricultural production and other rural infrastructure for improved marketing and access to agricultural inputs. Second, a concerted effort is needed to promote the importance of nutrition at all levels of society. At the household level, training should aim to instill (for both men and women) the value of a costlier, but more nutritious diet. District and regional government officials, healthcare workers and other key stakeholders should be trained on methodologies to integrate nutrition programming into other development activities. High-level government dialogue and learning should aim to encourage greater coordination between local and federal government officials and across government departments to ensure improved nutrition outcomes for greater agricultural productivity and economic growth. Finally, PNG (both government and development partners) must invest in more timely data collection of key welfare indicators to inform nutrition targets and assistance programming.

× This bulletin presents food price data compiled by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA) from markets across the country to track food price trends and inform policymakers. In addition, users can access a web-based interactive dashboard for visualizing monthly prices of over 20 different food types over time. Price data collected in 2021 had comparatively higher number of observations compared to the previous year. However, data collection was interrupted in August through mid-September due to logistical challenges and market closures as a result of the COVID-19 surge in PNG, mainly in highland markets, creating gaps in the time series price data.

× Policy simulations utilizing an economy-wide model based on PNG national accounts and survey data highlight the importance of linkages between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors of the PNG economy.
There are potentially major benefits of increased agricultural productivity for national income and urban households. To reduce rural poverty, however, transport and processing costs must be lowered, as well.
Even if only half of the increase in foreign exchange earnings from the 2022 world energy price shock is absorbed into the PNG economy, the real exchange rate appreciates by 13 percent, reducing incomes from export crops. However, increased domestic demand for non-tradable crops contributes to a 10 percent income gain for the rural poor.
Using a portion of increased oil and natural gas revenues to finance new investments in crop agriculture, processing and transport, provides even greater benefits by spurring real GDP growth and raising real household incomes by an additional 2 to 4 percentage points.
A hypothetical carbon credit arrangement in which PNG reduces deforestation in exchange for funds used to finance cash transfers to the poorest 20 percent of both urban and rural households could raise the incomes of these groups by about 13 percent.

× The welfare of Papua New Guinea’s (PNG’s) population depends on domestic agriculture productivity and stability. As of 2019, value-added from the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors totaled approximately 17 percent of GDP. However, when considering the downstream value chain activities directly related to the agriculture sector (e.g., agriculture processing, domestic food trade and transportation, and domestic food commodity sales), the larger agri-food system in PNG contributes over 25 percent to the country’s overall GDP (Pradesha and Dorosh, 2022). Maximizing efficiency throughout the entire agri-food value chain is critical to fostering greater economic growth and poverty reduction within the country. Growing a globally competitive agriculture sector also demands investments and capacity strengthening in mid-stream value chain operations such as product aggregation, transport logistics, packaging and processing, and handling. It is important that these investments also promote inclusive development that benefits both men and women value chain actors. Previous research suggests that where women are economically empowered and have access to decent jobs in lucrative nodes (i.e., activities) of value chains, households have higher incomes and are less likely to be poor (FAO, 2011). In PNG, despite women’s greater share of employment in agriculture (60 and 52 percent of women and men work in agriculture, respectively), women participate less in higher-value agricultural production and trade activities (Chang et al., 2016; Omot, Chambers, and Spriggs, 2013; World Bank, 2022).

× Maximizing efficiency throughout the entire agri-food value chain is critical to fostering greater economic growth and poverty reduction in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Investments in midstream value chain infrastructure (e.g., improved storage facilities, rural feeder roads, electricity, and cold storage transport) are crucial to strengthen linkages between producers and consumers. These investments should also promote inclusive development that benefits both men and women value chain actors. In this study, we analyzed three key value chains in Papua New Guinea—poultry, sweet potato, and fresh vegetables—aiming to guide policymakers and stakeholders toward ways to improve productivity, increase revenue, and bolster competitiveness and inclusiveness within the agriculture and livestock sectors.

× Prices of major food staples in Kokopo, Lae and Port Moresby have remained broadly stable over 2019 and 2020. The exceptions are prices of sweet potatoes and cooking bananas in Port Moresby, which declined between mid-2019 and the third quarter of 2020.
Per kilogram prices of vitamin-dense foods such as broccoli, carrot and karakap are typically higher than prices of starchy staples. Prices of both carrots and broccoli in Lae rose in mid-2020, but have declined in the last quarter of 2020 and October prices were close to their price levels in late 2019.
More consistent and timely price data collection and database management is necessary for informative food market analysis. Price data reported in this bulletin by crop and market is limited to 10 observations (at most) out of a possible of 24 fortnights in 2019. The rate of price data reporting has been lower in 2020, in part due to Covid-19 related disruptions.

× Understanding how the Papua New Guinea (PNG) agricultural economy and associated household consumption is affected by climate, market and other shocks requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG.
In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. We have built the model to be flexible in order to explore different potential scenarios and then identify where and how households are most affected by an unexpected shock. The model is designed using region and country-level data sources that inform the structure of the PNG food economy, allowing for a data-driven evaluation of potential impacts on agricultural production, food prices, and food consumption. Thus, as PNG confronts different unexpected challenges within its agricultural economy, the model presented in this paper can be adapted to evaluate the potential impact and necessary response by geographic region of an unexpected economic shock on the food economy of the country.
We present ten simulations modeling the effects of various shocks on PNG’s economy. The first group of scenarios consider the effects of shocks to production of specific agricultural commodities including: 1) a decrease on maize and sorghum output due to Fall Armyworm; 2) reduction in pig production due to a potential outbreak of African Swine Fever; 3) decline in sweet potato production similar to the 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate shock; and 4) a decline in poultry production due to COVID-19 restrictions on domestic mobility and trade. A synopsis of this report, which focuses on the COVID-19 related shocks on the PNG economy is also available online (Diao et al., 2020).1
The second group of simulations focus on COVID-19-related changes in international prices, increased marketing costs in international and domestic trade, and reductions in urban incomes. We simulate a 1) 30 percent increase in the price of imported rice, 2) a 30 percent decrease in world prices for major PNG agricultural exports, 3) higher trade transaction costs due to restrictions on the movement of people (traders) and goods given social distancing measures of COVID-19, and 4) potential economic recession causing urban household income to fall by 10 percent. Finally, the last simulation considers the combined effect of all COVID-19 related shocks combining the above scenarios into a single simulation.
A key result of the analysis is that urban households, especially the urban poor, are particularly vulnerable to shocks related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Lower economic activity in urban areas (assumed to reduce urban non-agricultural incomes by 10 percent), increases in marketing costs due to domestic trade disruptions, and 30 percent higher imported rice prices combine to lower urban incomes by almost 15 percent for both poor and non-poor urban households. Urban poor households, however, suffer the largest drop in calorie consumption - 19.8 percent, compared to a 15.8 percent decline for urban non-poor households. Rural households are much less affected by the Covid-19 related shocks modeled in these simulations. Rural household incomes, affected mainly by reduced urban demand and market disruptions, fall by only about four percent. Nonetheless, calorie consumption for the rural poor and non-poor falls by 5.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively.

× During the first quarter of 2021, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in collaboration with the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA) and the National Research Institute (NRI) collaborated to update the tools used to collect important crop price information in food markets across the country. In addition, the team designed and piloted a new market vendor survey that will inform function and performance of fresh food markets, as well as identify challenges and opportunities for fresh food supply and logistics supply chain processes. Results of the first market vendor survey will be published in the 2nd quarter bulletin in July, 2021.

× The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented a unique challenge to governments across the globe, reinforcing the need to improve understanding of domestic and international trade trends to provide more informed options for policy response. During the last several months, IFPRI has been analyzing a variety of Papua New Guinea (PNG) national and global datasets with the goal of expanding analytical tools to evaluate potential production shortfalls and food price shocks, and their associated impacts on household food security and livelihoods. This research note focuses on agri-food import and export trends during the last two decades to better evaluate potential changes in related import demand and export potential in PNG. In doing so, this research note informs an upcoming economy-wide multi market model analysis that will model a variety of potential shocks to household welfare to identify policies to manage potential ensuing food security threats.
PNG’s growth in international agri-food trade (both export and import) will continue to be important to overall food security outcomes among rural and urban households. Rural households that produce key export cash-crops (e.g., coffee, cocoa, palm oil) depend on the cash economy to supplement overall food consumption, while urban households depend on rice and other agri-food imports (as well as domestic goods) for consumption. Agri-food imports are also contributing to important increases in the availability of protein-dense foods, with the value of poultry imports growing, on average, 30 percent per capita per year from 2001 – 2016. Although PNG’s agri-food import data suggest a greater demand for higher value food items such as animal-sourced foods, the total import value of ultra-processed foods, such as sugary drinks, are also increasing rapidly within PNG.
The profitability and growth of agricultural exports and imports are driven by several factors, including levels of public investment in infrastructure, weather and climate shocks, security and political stability, and conditions in the world market. Government economic policies, including exchange rate, trade and price policies, also heavily influence agricultural trade. Policy to promote and facilitate domestic movement of goods, as well as macro-economic policies that influence the relative price of tradable to non-tradable goods (the real exchange rate) should be managed appropriately to support and incentivize greater agri-food production and trade. These policies could also be paired with an expanded set of education programs that integrate nutrition-sensitive information to address current increases in demand and consumption of high-saturated and sugary processed goods, of which total import values are rapidly increasing in PNG. Finally, a greater portfolio of organized databases, analytical tools and policy resources are warranted to facilitate real-time policy analysis that can inform key development investments and initiatives.

× During April through June 2021, market price data were collected routinely by the Fresh Produce Development Agency (FPDA), providing an important baseline for future market price analysis. In addition, the team fully implemented the new tablet price data collection tools which were built to improve data collection accuracy. The new price data questionnaire has decreased the list of diverse crops for price collection to focus on greater data quality collection, while maintaining important staple crops and a selection of fruit and vegetable crops. An accompanying trader survey that asks questions about production and sales volumes, transaction costs, and market processes was piloted in early April and will be fully implemented in Quarter 3 of 2021.

× Sweet potato and cassava prices in Port Moresby gradually increased in quarter 3, however staple prices in other markets (Lae, Mt. Hagen, Goroka, Kokopo) across the country remained relatively stable . Vitamin-rich food (such as carrots, broccoli, and pawpaw) prices remained relatively stable in quarter 3. Select vegetable and fruit prices increased in Port Moresby.

× How do perceptions of one’s relative economic status affect gender attitudes, including support for women’s economic participation and involvement in decision-making in their community and household? We conducted a 2018 survey experiment with female and male adults in approximately 1000 households in Papua New Guinea. Employing an established survey treatment to subtly alter respondents’ perception of their relative economic wellbeing, we find that increased feelings of relative deprivation make both men and women significantly more likely to support girls’ schooling and women’s paid employment, suggesting that relative economic insecurity can actually prompt support for women’s economic participation. However, increased feelings of relative deprivation may trigger greater intra-household tension. While increased perceptions of relative deprivation cause women to want more household decision-making authority, men’s attitudes toward women’s proper roles in decision-making are unchanged. In other words, increased support for women’s economic participation among men appears to stem mainly from a desire to raise household income, and not to alter the general role of women in society. The results underscore the multifaceted nature of gender attitudes, and how support for women’s economic participation may rise without simultaneous increases in women’s agency in decision-making.

× A severe El Niño event in 2015/16 decimated an important share of Papua New Guinea's (PNG) local crop production, leaving 10 per cent of the population with significant food shortages. Lack of recent socio‐economic data and analysis of the country's rural population impeded efforts to plan and mitigate the ensuing food crisis. This paper presents the most recent poverty analysis in Papua New Guinea in nearly a decade, and a renewed effort to inform rural production, consumption and livelihood patterns in some of the country's most remote, lowland areas. We designed a rural household survey that collected detailed consumption and expenditure data to explore poverty prevalence and correlates of per capita household expenditure. Results suggest that approximately half of the sampled individuals live in households with total per capita expenditures below the poverty line. Climate shocks have significant and possibly long‐term consequences for household welfare. Households that experienced a drought in the last 5 years are associated with significantly lower per capita expenditures. Labour diversification, via migration, is associated with greater welfare. Households with at least one migrant member are associated with 13 per cent greater per capita expenditure.

× Feeling poor relative to others can spur families to support women in pursuing work outside the household and to invest more in girls’ schooling, according to our new study. But that does not mean women become more empowered.
In 2018, we conducted a survey experiment in Papua New Guinea to see how feeling economically left behind affects gender attitudes. We used a special type of survey technique to subtly alter respondents’ perception of their economic well-being in relation to other households. Half of the study participants were randomly primed to feel that they were at the bottom of a wide income distribution.

× COVID-19 has impacted urban and rural households throughout Papua New Guinea (PNG). Looking ahead, policymakers and development practitioners must continue to mitigate COVID-19 impacts on PNG households, as well as monitor other potential agricultural production shocks (such as El Niño, African Swine Fever, etc.) that could substantially decrease household income and food consumption.

× Trade flow among the countries determines the economic benefits countries gain from trade. For many Asian developing countries, agricultural and food trade is an important engine for agricultural growth. The ability to use trade flow data for analyses is important for decision making related to trade policies. The training is going to be organized through a set of virtual workshop sessions. In order to prepare for the training and maximize the benefits from the online training workshop, participants are expected to read the workshop materials and get familiar with the trade datasets shared in advance.

× Concerns over the potential effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic have led to trade restrictions by major rice exporters, contributing to an average 25% increase in Thai and Vietnamese rice export prices between December 2019 and March–September 2020. This article assesses the consequences of these rice price increases in Papua New Guinea (PNG), where 99% of rice is imported. Utilizing data from a PNG 2018 rural household survey along with earlier national household survey data, we examine rice consumption patterns in PNG and estimate demand parameters for urban and rural households. Model simulations indicate that a 25% rise in the world price of rice would reduce total rice consumption in PNG by 14% and reduce rice consumption of the poor (bottom 40% of total household expenditure distribution) by 15%. Including the effects of a possible 12% decrease in household incomes because of the COVID‐19 related economic slowdown, rice consumption of the urban and rural poor fall by 20% and 17%, respectively. Maintaining functioning domestic supply chains of key staple goods is critical to mitigating the effects of global rice price increases, allowing urban households to increase their consumption of locally produced staples.

× How do perceptions of relative economic status affect gender attitudes regarding women’s economic participation and decision-making authority in their household and community? Several recent trends highlight the importance of this question. Income inequality within developing countries is on the rise (Ravaillon 2014). Moreover, with the proliferation of social media, permitting quicker comparisons of oneself to others in their network, and increased migration flows, the salience of inequality is simultaneously growing.

× Background
Papua New Guinea (PNG) experienced positive GDP growth at approximately 4.3% per year during the last decade. With increases in overall wealth within the country, PNG is facing a double burden of malnutrition: comparatively high child stunting rates and a growing overweight and obesity epidemic. We focus on the latter by evaluating trends in agri-food import data from 2001 to 2018 and household consumption data from 2018 and 2009/10.

Results
The analysis presented in this paper raises three red flags. First, international food import data suggest that the demand for ultra-processed, sugar-sweetened beverages and food have increased substantially over time in PNG. Sugar-sweetened beverages dominated the largest growth in processed food imports, increasing by 23% per capita per year between 2001 and 2018. Second, households across the country with a greater food expenditure on sugar-sweetened beverages have a higher probability of an overweight child (under 5 years old). Last, the probability of soft-drink consumption in PNG increases with greater income acquisition and improved market access. While the price of a soft drink is negatively correlated with the quantity consumed, analysis suggests that total household income has a quantitatively larger (and positive) association with soft drink consumption.

Conclusions
Taxing (or increasing taxes on) sugar-sweetened beverages may not be a sufficient policy mechanism to curb overconsumption of soft drinks in PNG. Education and advocacy programs should be fostered that integrate improved dietary information on packaging, as well as greater access to and understanding of nutrition and diet information of common household consumption items. While increases in household income and market access are crucial to economic growth and transformation, PNG’s economic transition must be dovetailed with programs that expand and enhance health and nutrition information and education to improve household consumption decisions and overall household wellbeing.

× The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented a unique challenge to governments across the globe, reinforcing the need to improve understanding of domestic and international trade trends to provide more informed options for policy response. Papua New Guinea’s growing international trade in food and other agricultural products will continue to be important to overall food security outcomes among rural and urban households in the country. Rural households that produce key export cash-crops, such as coffee, cocoa, or palm oil, depend on the cash economy to supplement their food consumption, while urban households depend on rice and other agri-food imports, as well as domestic goods, for consumption. This project note focuses on trends in agrifood imports and exports during the last two decades to better evaluate potential changes in import demand and export potential for PNG. In doing so, it informs an upcoming economy-wide multi-market model analysis that will evaluate a variety of potential shocks to PNG’s agri-food system on household welfare in order to identify policies to manage potential food security threats. The COVID-19 pandemic is one of many diverse shocks that may adversely affect the economy of PNG over the next decade. The expansion of a portfolio of organized databases, analytical tools, and policy resources, such as the multimarket model, is warranted to facilitate real-time policy analyses to inform key development investments and initiatives.

× Rice prices in international markets rose sharply between December 2019 and May 2020, increasing, for example, by 25 percent in Thailand and 30 percent in Vietnam. Given that essentially all of the rice supply for Papua New Guinea (PNG) comes from rice imports, the domestic price of rice in PNG is likely to rise substantially in coming months. Although PNG’s food economy is dominated by domestically produced starchy staples, rice imports have almost doubled from 167,000 tons annually in 2005 to an estimated 300,000 tons in 2020. This note examines rice consumption patterns and international trade trends for PNG to shed light on the potential impacts in rural and urban PNG of disruptions to rice imports. Our model simulations indicate that a 30 percent rise in the world price of rice would be expected to decrease the rice consumption of poor households by 17.3 percent. Under this scenario, consumers in poor households, which are those in the bottom 40 percent of the household expenditure distribution in PNG, would suffer a net welfare loss of USD 23.0 million, equivalent to a 1.6 percent decrease in a per capita daily income of one US dollar.

× Developments in the agricultural economy of Papua New Guinea have major impacts on household food consumption decisions. A household’s ability to produce and sell food is affected by climate and associated agricultural potential, market opportunities (domestic, import and export) and unexpected shocks. Each of these factors affects the overall food system, thereby influencing production and consumption of all food products and the markets in which they are traded. The COVID-19 pandemic has presented a challenge far more complex than an agricultural production shock, such as those due to El Niño or pests. Rather than directly affecting agricultural output and rural household welfare, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected economies across the globe via trade disruptions (logistic challenges; international trade barriers), social distancing policies (domestic food market and nonessential business closures), and transportation restrictions (road closures; air travel cancellations). The measures aimed to curb the spread of COVID-19 have affected household incomes via urban job losses, reduced market interaction, and dramatic changes in world food prices. While rice prices have increased, luxury food prices, such as for chocolate (i.e. cocoa), have decreased. PNG’s unique and highly varied biophysical landscape has shaped agricultural production patterns, outcomes, and livelihoods for centuries. Understanding how the PNG agrifood economy and resulting household consumption is affected by COVID-19 therefore requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded.

× Background and Objectives: Fortifying commercial table salt with iodine is the principal strategy used globally to prevent dietary iodine deficiency. However, the costs of providing fortified salt to remote communities may result in it not being locally available or too expensive for many households. This study shows that barriers to consuming adequately iodized salt remain significant for remote rural households in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Methods and Study Design: Using data from a rural household survey conducted in four areas of PNG in 2018, two issues are examined. First, we contrast the characteristics of households that reported consuming or not consuming iodized table salt, respectively. Second, the adequacy of the iodine content of samples of table salt consumed was assessed in the laboratory. Results: Nine percent of the 1,026 survey households reported not consuming iodized table salt. These households tend to live in remote communities, are among the poorest households, have received no formal education, and have experienced recent food insecurity. Second, 17 percent of the 778 salt samples tested had inadequate iodine. The brand of salt most commonly consumed had the highest share of samples with inadequate iodine levels. Conclusions: Particularly in remote communities, ensuring that individuals consume sufficient iodine will require going beyond salt iodization to use other approaches to iodine supplementation. To ensure that the iodine intake of those using commercial table salt is adequate, closer monitoring of the iodine content in table salt produced or imported into PNG and enforcement of salt iodization regulations is required.

× Papua New Guinea is an economic leader in the Pacific region via its extractive resources. However, these industries do not provide employment opportunities for the country’s 6.4 million (80% of total population) rural inhabitants. Rural nonfarm enterprises (NFEs) could offer an additional source of structural change, whereby benefits are capitalized by domestic rural and urban households along the value chain. In 2018, we administered a survey to over 1000 households to gauge whether households with NFEs afford better diets. We examine the factors associated with NFE ownership using a multinomial logit (MNL) framework. We then evaluate whether welfare effects differ by the sex of the NFE owner using nearest neighbor matching to address selection into NFE ownership. Results suggest households with a NFE obtain greater levels of consumption on the order of 26% for protein per person, 11% for kilocalories per person, 13% for total yearly expenditures per person, and 10% for household dietary diversity. Results point to the resounding limitations of female-owned NFEs primarily created to cope with income risk. The findings highlight the relevance of NFEs as a poverty reduction strategy and the importance of targeting when promoting in-country entrepreneurship.

× Between May and July 2018, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) implemented a household-level survey in four areas of PNG: the Autonomous Region of Bougainville (South Bougainville near Buin), Madang (Middle Ramu near Kwanga Station), East Sepik (near Maprik) and West Sepik (near Nuku). The survey investigated the food systems of rural households and how they assure sufficient food to meet the nutritional needs of their household members. The household questionnaire for the survey focused on agricultural production systems and health outcomes and included modules on: production; consumption and expenditure; labor activities (farm and non-farm); nutritional status; and the experience of the survey households with recent agricultural production or other shocks that impacted their livelihoods. This report provides descriptive results from the survey and discusses key indicators and actions to improve agricultural systems and nutrition in PNG.

× This research note provides a description of the survey sample and implementation and reports on initial findings from analysis of the survey data. Our aim is to use this research and evidence to spur a policy dialogue on promoting increased agricultural productivity, enhanced food security, and improved nutrition policies in PNG. Initial survey results show that most of the food consumed by rural households in the sample is produced from households’ own farms, indicating that consumption is closely linked with overall agricultural productivity. Classifying the survey sample by poor and non-poor households, we find that the poor households are not consuming the recommended daily calorie levels, considered necessary for a healthy and productive life. The survey data also suggest that child stunting (29 percent) and wasting (7 percent) are relatively high in the surveyed areas.

× Conducting household surveys through face-to-face interviewing in rural Papua New Guinea is beset with difficulties and high costs. With phone network coverage spreading across PNG, using mobile phones to obtain information from respondents can allow such surveys to be done more quickly and at significantly lower cost. However, not all rural households own mobile phones. In this Project Note, an assessment is made of whether survey information collected by calling respondents on their mobile phones will be representative of the population surveyed or, rather, might be subject to systematic biases. This assessment is done by analyzing the characteristics of households in four rural areas of PNG that were interviewed in a field survey in mid-2018.

× Dietary iodine deficiency results in stunted physical and mental growth in children. Fortifying commercial household salt with a small but adequate amount of iodine is the principal strategy used globally to prevent iodine deficiency. However, there may be barriers to consuming adequately iodized salt for many rural households in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Using results from a rural household survey conducted in four areas of the country in 2018 that was administered to just over 1,000 households, two issues related to salt iodization in PNG are examined. First, only about 9 percent of survey households reported that they did not consume iodized table salt in the seven days prior to being interviewed for the survey. However, specific characteristics are associated with such households. They tend to be located in remote communities, are in the poorest 20 percent of survey households, have no members who received any formal education, and have experienced recent food insecurity. Particularly for remote households, ensuring that their members consume sufficient iodine will require going beyond salt iodization to use other approaches to iodine supplementation. Second, of the samples of salt obtained from the survey households, the iodine content of two-thirds fell within the PNG regulations, a reasonably encouraging finding. Only about 17 percent of the almost 800 samples obtained had inadequate iodine. However, when the salt samples were examined by brand, it was found that the brand most commonly consumed had the highest share of samples with inadequate iodine levels. Closer monitoring of the iodine content in table salt produced or imported into PNG and enforcement of salt iodization regulations is required.

× Papua New Guinea (PNG) is the country with the largest rural population share in the East Asia and Pacific region. In addition, PNG is affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic events that in severe years cause significant food insecurity due to failed agricultural production. Shrinking land holdings for agricultural production due to the growing population together with climate risk motivates many rural households to explore off-farm income generating opportunities. The analysis reported on here evaluates the importance of nonfarm employment in rural areas in PNG in diversifying risk to household welfare (associated with weather shocks, crop pests and diseases, agricultural price fluctuations, etc.), in smoothing seasonal income fluctuations, and in absorbing excess labor in households with limited agricultural resources. Our study draws upon a wide-ranging literature focused on the role of nonfarm enterprises in the livelihood strategies of rural households globally, e.g., de Janvry and Sadoulet 2001; Lanjouw and Lanjouw 2001; Jayne et al. 2003; Barrett et al. 2005; Haggblade et al. 2007; Lay et al. 2008. We use data collected from rural households in PNG between May and July 2018 by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The survey was administered to 1,026 households in 70 communities across specific districts in East Sepik, Madang, and West Sepik provinces and in the Autonomous Region of Bougainville. Respondent households were asked detailed questions about any nonfarm enterprises (NFE) in which they were involved, including questions on ownership, labor characteristics, and income generation. We explore how engaging in an NFE affects household welfare. In doing so, we evaluate two questions: 1) What barriers to entry exist for male- versus female-owned NFEs? 2) Do the welfare effects of NFE ownership differ by the sex of the owner? Overall, we find that households with an NFE have significantly higher annual per capita consumption compared to matched households without an NFE, amounting to an average increase in the value of annual household consumption of 180 kina (PGK) per capita. In addition, households with an NFE consume approximately 9.5 grams more protein per person per day and achieve greater diversity in their diets compared to households without an NFE. We find that the positive effects of NFE ownership on welfare outcomes are largely driven by male-owned and jointly-owned (male and female) NFEs. The welfare outcomes attributable to female-owned NFEs are much smaller.

× The lack of data on rural household production systems and economic conditions in Papua New Guinea (PNG) has impeded efforts to inform development initiatives for the last decade. In 2015/16, a severe El Niño event decimated local crop production and underscored the lack of current data and analysis of PNG’s rural population. This paper presents recently collected data from a rural household survey in PNG, including detailed consumption and expenditure data, to explore poverty prevalence and vulnerability in selected rural areas. In doing so, we evaluate food production and consumption patterns within the survey areas and calculate area-specific poverty lines. In addition, we explore correlates of household consumption expenditure. Results suggest that approximately half of the survey sample have total consumption expenditure below the poverty line. When evaluating calorie consumption by food groups, we find that the rural diet is heavily dependent on starchy foods and a
large share of the sample has insufficient protein intake per capita. Further evaluation of the correlates of household expenditure suggest four potential policy initiatives to explore further as conduits to improving overall welfare: 1) identify measures to increase agricultural production and improve resilience to climate shocks; 2) increase investments in education; 3) seek opportunities to enhance migration out of rural areas and 4) reduce the number of household dependents. Given that approximately 80 percent of the population in PNG is dependent on rain-fed, subsistence agriculture, rural data collection and analysis to inform policy priorities and development investments are critical to ensure economic viability and food security. This paper presents the most recent poverty analysis in PNG in nearly a decade and a renewed effort to better inform development priorities for the country’s rural population.

× How do perceptions of one's relative economic status affect gender attitudes, including support for women's economic participation and their involvement in decision-making within their household and community? Increased feelings of relative economic vulnerability may lead to greater intra-household tension under a scenario of women seeking greater advancement economically and socially. In this instance, women’s empowerment could be perceived as a threat in a context of limited economic opportunity. On the other hand, to the extent that empowering women can improve household welfare, feeling economically vulnerable could motivate more egalitarian gender attitudes with respect to economic participation. For example, women's labor force participation brings income into the household, and women's involvement in decision-making can facilitate more efficient land management (Dillon and Voena, 2018; Goldstein and Udry, 2008; Seymour, 2017) and bring about better health (Beegle et al., 2001; Dinçer et al., 2014; Sraboni et al., 2014), nutrition (Ekbrand and Halleröd, 2018; Imai et al., 2014; Lépine and Strobl, 2013; Smith and Haddad, 2001; Smith et al., 2003), and education (Qian, 2008) outcomes for household members. As one of the first papers to investigate the impact of perceptions of relative poverty on gender attitudes, a December 2019 IFPRI Discussion Paper by Katrina Kosec, Cecilia Hyunjung Mo, Emily Schmidt, and Jie Song shows that perceptions of relative poverty translate into greater support for girls’ schooling and women’s engagement in paid employment. In other words, relative economic insecurity can prompt support for women's economic participation. However, this support is not necessarily accompanied by greater support for women’s involvement in community and intra-household decision-making. Feeling relatively poor triggered an increased desire among women to have decision-making authority within the household; however, there was no change in men’s attitudes about women’s role in decision-making. The paper underscores the complicated nature of gender attitudes, and how support for women's economic participation may rise without simultaneous increases in women's agency in decision-making.

× How do perceptions of one’s relative economic status affect gender attitudes, including support for women’s economic participation and involvement in decision-making? We conducted a 2018 survey experiment with female and male adults in approximately 1,000 households in Papua New Guinea. Employing an established survey treatment to subtly alter respondents’ perception of their relative economic well-being, we find that increased feelings of relative poverty make both men and women significantly more likely to support girls’ schooling and women’s paid employment, suggesting that relative economic insecurity can prompt support for women’s economic participation. However, increased feelings of relative poverty may trigger greater intra-household tension. While increased perceptions of relative poverty cause women to want more household decision-making authority, men’s attitudes toward women’s roles in decision-making are unchanged. Results underscore the complicated nature of gender attitudes, and how support for women’s economic participation may rise without simultaneous increases in women’s agency in decision-making.

× PNG’s agricultural research expenditure declined steadily during 2013–2017 as the combined result of reductions in both donor and government funding. In 2017, PNG invested just 0.31 percent of its AgGDP in agricultural research. In contrast to spending, agricultural researcher numbers rose progressively during 2013–2017 to reach 146 FTEs in total. The country’s research agencies lack the critical mass of highly qualified researchers and accompanying infrastructure needed to address the multidisciplinary challenges facing the agricultural sector. Many critical research areas remain overlooked.

× The 193 individual country profiles capture the status and progress of all UN Member States, and the 80+ indicators include a wealth of information on child, adolescent and adult anthropometry and nutritional status, in addition to intervention coverage, food supply, economics, and demography. This tool is particularly useful for nutrition champions at the country-level, as it presents a wide range of evidence needed to assess country progress in improving nutrition and nutrition-related outcomes.