Policy Notes & Briefs

× Sweet potato plays an important role in the food system of Papua New Guinea (PNG), accounting for over 12 percent of total calories consumed in the country (IFPRI,2023). Three-quarters of sweet potato production takes place in the highlands where it is harvested throughout the year (Chang et al., 2013). However, the production and consumption of sweet potatoes in PNG faces several challenges, including climate change, pests and diseases, and market access constraints. In particular, a significant decline in sweet potato production due to an El Niño-related drought in early 2024 is a realistic possibility.

× In 2023, Papua New Guinea introduced a partial ban on poultry imports from Australia and Asian countries (representing about 70 percent of total PNG poultry imports) in response to the biosecurity threat posed by Avian Influenza (bird flu). Such a restriction on supply has the potential to lead to sharp price increases, steep reductions in household consumption and greater food insecurity.

× Papua New Guinea ranks among the countries most at risk to natural disasters and climate change (World Bank, 2021). Increased exposure to natural hazards such as coastal and inland river flooding as well as landslides are likely to intensify in PNG, affecting agriculture production patterns and household livelihoods. In addition, the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report suggests that Pacific coral reefs face a negative outlook under all climate change scenarios, whereby increased coral bleaching will have significant negative impacts on the health of coastal fisheries in PNG (Nurse et al., 2014).

× In a recent working paper, we examine staple and cash crop production yields in Papua New Guinea (PNG). In doing so, we assess the yield gap (difference between the crop yields farmers commonly obtain and what they might realize with optimal inputs and crop management) for the main staple food crops in PNG. The yield gap for sweet potato is the smallest (1/4 - 1/3 less than attainable yields), while banana shows the largest yield gap at about ¾ less than what might be achieved under intensive cultivation. In addition, we compare PNG agricultural output with areas of similar growing conditions in Indonesia to provide insight into potential investments to further spur agricultural productivity in PNG. Finally, we assess current sector policies in PNG that aim to support agricultural development as an engine for economic growth.

× While a lot of development planning and policy attention has been dedicated to achieving dietary energy (i.e., calorie) adequacy to ensure food security and support greater household wellbeing, nutrition adequacy is also necessary to achieve improved human development indicators (e.g., improved educational attainment, decreased disease prevalence, and decreased child stunting prevalence). This study (explained in detail in the comprehensive working paper) calculates two poverty lines based on the costs that an individual faces in PNG to secure a diet consisting of foods typically consumed by poor households adjusted to align with a calorie threshold and healthy diet thresholds, respectively, together with modest non-food expenditures. Results suggest that over half of the sample households are unable to meet the necessary costs of ensuring an calorie equate modest food basket along with some basic non-food needs (Schmidt et al., 2022). Comparing the healthy diet poverty line to average household income suggests that attaining a nutritious, balanced diet while meeting other basic needs remains out of reach for nearly 4/5 of the rural sample households. Based on the study results, we identify 3 key interventions to improve food and nutrition security in vulnerable areas. First, PNG will continue to face disruptive climate events that quickly increase agricultural vulnerability and food insecurity in remote areas with limited market access and underdeveloped support services. The government of PNG in collaboration with development partners should pilot a series of social safety net programs that can assist vulnerable populations. These programs can be designed to build resiliency during non-shock seasons or years, such as improving livestock holdings, diversifying crop mix, investing in sustainable land management, and building agricultural production and other rural infrastructure for improved marketing and access to agricultural inputs. Second, a concerted effort is needed to promote the importance of nutrition at all levels of society. At the household level, training should aim to instill (for both men and women) the value of a costlier, but more nutritious diet. District and regional government officials, healthcare workers and other key stakeholders should be trained on methodologies to integrate nutrition programming into other development activities. High-level government dialogue and learning should aim to encourage greater coordination between local and federal government officials and across government departments to ensure improved nutrition outcomes for greater agricultural productivity and economic growth. Finally, PNG (both government and development partners) must invest in more timely data collection of key welfare indicators to inform nutrition targets and assistance programming.

× Policy simulations utilizing an economy-wide model based on PNG national accounts and survey data highlight the importance of linkages between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors of the PNG economy.
There are potentially major benefits of increased agricultural productivity for national income and urban households. To reduce rural poverty, however, transport and processing costs must be lowered, as well.
Even if only half of the increase in foreign exchange earnings from the 2022 world energy price shock is absorbed into the PNG economy, the real exchange rate appreciates by 13 percent, reducing incomes from export crops. However, increased domestic demand for non-tradable crops contributes to a 10 percent income gain for the rural poor.
Using a portion of increased oil and natural gas revenues to finance new investments in crop agriculture, processing and transport, provides even greater benefits by spurring real GDP growth and raising real household incomes by an additional 2 to 4 percentage points.
A hypothetical carbon credit arrangement in which PNG reduces deforestation in exchange for funds used to finance cash transfers to the poorest 20 percent of both urban and rural households could raise the incomes of these groups by about 13 percent.

× Maximizing efficiency throughout the entire agri-food value chain is critical to fostering greater economic growth and poverty reduction in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Investments in midstream value chain infrastructure (e.g., improved storage facilities, rural feeder roads, electricity, and cold storage transport) are crucial to strengthen linkages between producers and consumers. These investments should also promote inclusive development that benefits both men and women value chain actors. In this study, we analyzed three key value chains in Papua New Guinea—poultry, sweet potato, and fresh vegetables—aiming to guide policymakers and stakeholders toward ways to improve productivity, increase revenue, and bolster competitiveness and inclusiveness within the agriculture and livestock sectors.

× The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented a unique challenge to governments across the globe, reinforcing the need to improve understanding of domestic and international trade trends to provide more informed options for policy response. Papua New Guinea’s growing international trade in food and other agricultural products will continue to be important to overall food security outcomes among rural and urban households in the country. Rural households that produce key export cash-crops, such as coffee, cocoa, or palm oil, depend on the cash economy to supplement their food consumption, while urban households depend on rice and other agri-food imports, as well as domestic goods, for consumption. This project note focuses on trends in agrifood imports and exports during the last two decades to better evaluate potential changes in import demand and export potential for PNG. In doing so, it informs an upcoming economy-wide multi-market model analysis that will evaluate a variety of potential shocks to PNG’s agri-food system on household welfare in order to identify policies to manage potential food security threats. The COVID-19 pandemic is one of many diverse shocks that may adversely affect the economy of PNG over the next decade. The expansion of a portfolio of organized databases, analytical tools, and policy resources, such as the multimarket model, is warranted to facilitate real-time policy analyses to inform key development investments and initiatives.

× Rice prices in international markets rose sharply between December 2019 and May 2020, increasing, for example, by 25 percent in Thailand and 30 percent in Vietnam. Given that essentially all of the rice supply for Papua New Guinea (PNG) comes from rice imports, the domestic price of rice in PNG is likely to rise substantially in coming months. Although PNG’s food economy is dominated by domestically produced starchy staples, rice imports have almost doubled from 167,000 tons annually in 2005 to an estimated 300,000 tons in 2020. This note examines rice consumption patterns and international trade trends for PNG to shed light on the potential impacts in rural and urban PNG of disruptions to rice imports. Our model simulations indicate that a 30 percent rise in the world price of rice would be expected to decrease the rice consumption of poor households by 17.3 percent. Under this scenario, consumers in poor households, which are those in the bottom 40 percent of the household expenditure distribution in PNG, would suffer a net welfare loss of USD 23.0 million, equivalent to a 1.6 percent decrease in a per capita daily income of one US dollar.

× Developments in the agricultural economy of Papua New Guinea have major impacts on household food consumption decisions. A household’s ability to produce and sell food is affected by climate and associated agricultural potential, market opportunities (domestic, import and export) and unexpected shocks. Each of these factors affects the overall food system, thereby influencing production and consumption of all food products and the markets in which they are traded. The COVID-19 pandemic has presented a challenge far more complex than an agricultural production shock, such as those due to El Niño or pests. Rather than directly affecting agricultural output and rural household welfare, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected economies across the globe via trade disruptions (logistic challenges; international trade barriers), social distancing policies (domestic food market and nonessential business closures), and transportation restrictions (road closures; air travel cancellations). The measures aimed to curb the spread of COVID-19 have affected household incomes via urban job losses, reduced market interaction, and dramatic changes in world food prices. While rice prices have increased, luxury food prices, such as for chocolate (i.e. cocoa), have decreased. PNG’s unique and highly varied biophysical landscape has shaped agricultural production patterns, outcomes, and livelihoods for centuries. Understanding how the PNG agrifood economy and resulting household consumption is affected by COVID-19 therefore requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded.

× This research note provides a description of the survey sample and implementation and reports on initial findings from analysis of the survey data. Our aim is to use this research and evidence to spur a policy dialogue on promoting increased agricultural productivity, enhanced food security, and improved nutrition policies in PNG. Initial survey results show that most of the food consumed by rural households in the sample is produced from households’ own farms, indicating that consumption is closely linked with overall agricultural productivity. Classifying the survey sample by poor and non-poor households, we find that the poor households are not consuming the recommended daily calorie levels, considered necessary for a healthy and productive life. The survey data also suggest that child stunting (29 percent) and wasting (7 percent) are relatively high in the surveyed areas.

× Conducting household surveys through face-to-face interviewing in rural Papua New Guinea is beset with difficulties and high costs. With phone network coverage spreading across PNG, using mobile phones to obtain information from respondents can allow such surveys to be done more quickly and at significantly lower cost. However, not all rural households own mobile phones. In this Project Note, an assessment is made of whether survey information collected by calling respondents on their mobile phones will be representative of the population surveyed or, rather, might be subject to systematic biases. This assessment is done by analyzing the characteristics of households in four rural areas of PNG that were interviewed in a field survey in mid-2018.

× Dietary iodine deficiency results in stunted physical and mental growth in children. Fortifying commercial household salt with a small but adequate amount of iodine is the principal strategy used globally to prevent iodine deficiency. However, there may be barriers to consuming adequately iodized salt for many rural households in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Using results from a rural household survey conducted in four areas of the country in 2018 that was administered to just over 1,000 households, two issues related to salt iodization in PNG are examined. First, only about 9 percent of survey households reported that they did not consume iodized table salt in the seven days prior to being interviewed for the survey. However, specific characteristics are associated with such households. They tend to be located in remote communities, are in the poorest 20 percent of survey households, have no members who received any formal education, and have experienced recent food insecurity. Particularly for remote households, ensuring that their members consume sufficient iodine will require going beyond salt iodization to use other approaches to iodine supplementation. Second, of the samples of salt obtained from the survey households, the iodine content of two-thirds fell within the PNG regulations, a reasonably encouraging finding. Only about 17 percent of the almost 800 samples obtained had inadequate iodine. However, when the salt samples were examined by brand, it was found that the brand most commonly consumed had the highest share of samples with inadequate iodine levels. Closer monitoring of the iodine content in table salt produced or imported into PNG and enforcement of salt iodization regulations is required.

× Papua New Guinea (PNG) is the country with the largest rural population share in the East Asia and Pacific region. In addition, PNG is affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic events that in severe years cause significant food insecurity due to failed agricultural production. Shrinking land holdings for agricultural production due to the growing population together with climate risk motivates many rural households to explore off-farm income generating opportunities. The analysis reported on here evaluates the importance of nonfarm employment in rural areas in PNG in diversifying risk to household welfare (associated with weather shocks, crop pests and diseases, agricultural price fluctuations, etc.), in smoothing seasonal income fluctuations, and in absorbing excess labor in households with limited agricultural resources. Our study draws upon a wide-ranging literature focused on the role of nonfarm enterprises in the livelihood strategies of rural households globally, e.g., de Janvry and Sadoulet 2001; Lanjouw and Lanjouw 2001; Jayne et al. 2003; Barrett et al. 2005; Haggblade et al. 2007; Lay et al. 2008. We use data collected from rural households in PNG between May and July 2018 by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The survey was administered to 1,026 households in 70 communities across specific districts in East Sepik, Madang, and West Sepik provinces and in the Autonomous Region of Bougainville. Respondent households were asked detailed questions about any nonfarm enterprises (NFE) in which they were involved, including questions on ownership, labor characteristics, and income generation. We explore how engaging in an NFE affects household welfare. In doing so, we evaluate two questions: 1) What barriers to entry exist for male- versus female-owned NFEs? 2) Do the welfare effects of NFE ownership differ by the sex of the owner? Overall, we find that households with an NFE have significantly higher annual per capita consumption compared to matched households without an NFE, amounting to an average increase in the value of annual household consumption of 180 kina (PGK) per capita. In addition, households with an NFE consume approximately 9.5 grams more protein per person per day and achieve greater diversity in their diets compared to households without an NFE. We find that the positive effects of NFE ownership on welfare outcomes are largely driven by male-owned and jointly-owned (male and female) NFEs. The welfare outcomes attributable to female-owned NFEs are much smaller.

× How do perceptions of one's relative economic status affect gender attitudes, including support for women's economic participation and their involvement in decision-making within their household and community? Increased feelings of relative economic vulnerability may lead to greater intra-household tension under a scenario of women seeking greater advancement economically and socially. In this instance, women’s empowerment could be perceived as a threat in a context of limited economic opportunity. On the other hand, to the extent that empowering women can improve household welfare, feeling economically vulnerable could motivate more egalitarian gender attitudes with respect to economic participation. For example, women's labor force participation brings income into the household, and women's involvement in decision-making can facilitate more efficient land management (Dillon and Voena, 2018; Goldstein and Udry, 2008; Seymour, 2017) and bring about better health (Beegle et al., 2001; Dinçer et al., 2014; Sraboni et al., 2014), nutrition (Ekbrand and Halleröd, 2018; Imai et al., 2014; Lépine and Strobl, 2013; Smith and Haddad, 2001; Smith et al., 2003), and education (Qian, 2008) outcomes for household members. As one of the first papers to investigate the impact of perceptions of relative poverty on gender attitudes, a December 2019 IFPRI Discussion Paper by Katrina Kosec, Cecilia Hyunjung Mo, Emily Schmidt, and Jie Song shows that perceptions of relative poverty translate into greater support for girls’ schooling and women’s engagement in paid employment. In other words, relative economic insecurity can prompt support for women's economic participation. However, this support is not necessarily accompanied by greater support for women’s involvement in community and intra-household decision-making. Feeling relatively poor triggered an increased desire among women to have decision-making authority within the household; however, there was no change in men’s attitudes about women’s role in decision-making. The paper underscores the complicated nature of gender attitudes, and how support for women's economic participation may rise without simultaneous increases in women's agency in decision-making.

× PNG’s agricultural research expenditure declined steadily during 2013–2017 as the combined result of reductions in both donor and government funding. In 2017, PNG invested just 0.31 percent of its AgGDP in agricultural research. In contrast to spending, agricultural researcher numbers rose progressively during 2013–2017 to reach 146 FTEs in total. The country’s research agencies lack the critical mass of highly qualified researchers and accompanying infrastructure needed to address the multidisciplinary challenges facing the agricultural sector. Many critical research areas remain overlooked.

× The 193 individual country profiles capture the status and progress of all UN Member States, and the 80+ indicators include a wealth of information on child, adolescent and adult anthropometry and nutritional status, in addition to intervention coverage, food supply, economics, and demography. This tool is particularly useful for nutrition champions at the country-level, as it presents a wide range of evidence needed to assess country progress in improving nutrition and nutrition-related outcomes.