Research Papers

× From May to December 2023, IFPRI implemented the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey which was designed to understand rural livelihoods and welfare across different areas of PNG (Schmidt et al., 2024). Given the rural nature of the survey sample, almost all surveyed households depend on their own-farm production (predominantly starchy roots and tubers) to meet daily caloric needs. On average, households reported utilizing about 1.6 hectares of land for agriculture cultivation at the time of the survey. The survey collected a detailed account of the quantity of food types consumed by the household in order to estimate the average caloric intake per adult equivalent. Comparing the estimated caloric intake reported by surveyed households, with a recommended calorie intake suggests that only 45 per cent of individuals in surveyed households meet the recommended daily caloric intake for a lightly active individual. The survey also collected anthropometry data for children under five years of age and found that 36 percent of surveyed children were stunted in their growth. The 2023 Rural Household Survey represents an important effort in collecting a wide breadth of information about rural livelihoods. However, greater investments of in-depth data collection and analysis should be undertaken to examine specific components of PNG household livelihood strategies.

× Although the economy of Papua New Guinea is heavily influenced by the oil and natural gas sector, which accounts for 30 percent of GDP and most of the country’s foreign exchange earnings, small-scale agriculture continues to be the major source of livelihoods for most of the population. Much of the food crop production (particularly starchy staples such as sweet potatoes, cassava, yams and sago) is not traded internationally; however, oil palm, coffee and cocoa are major exports. A large share of agricultural production undergoes little value-added through processing and much of it is consumed by farm households themselves. Thus, there would appear to be substantial scope for increases in employment and incomes through further development of the broader agrifood system, including agroprocessing, trade and transport, and food services.

× Despite poultry being lauded as a relatively affordable source of protein and micronutrients in many lower-income countries, chicken meat is twice as expensive in PNG compared to nearby Southeast Asian countries. Recent rural household consumption data collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) suggests that an important share of households do not eat enough protein to meet healthy dietary guidelines (Schmidt et al., 2024). Poultry, along with fish and pork, are the three most important animal-source protein foods in the country, yet these products remain financially prohibitive to a large share of the population.

This paper explores the unique challenges and opportunities within PNG’s poultry sector using a "growth diagnostic" approach (pioneered by Rodrik, 2010). Through interviews with key stakeholders across the poultry value chain, we found that while high feed costs persist as a significant challenge, poultry farmers have yet to adopt additional cost-reduction strategies, such as establishing small-scale regional feed mills, utilizing local feed ingredients, and diversifying feed and input imports. An intriguing puzzle of PNG’s poultry sector is the limited number of small-scale producers successfully transitioning to medium-scale operations. This primarily stems from high transport costs and restricted access to input and sales markets. The challenges of marketing chicken in PNG have received less attention than production. Drawing on the experiences of successful models in other countries and considering the specific situation of PNG's poultry sector, fostering poultry production and processing clusters (e.g., in Lae suburban areas) emerges as a potential strategy to address production, transportation, and marketing constraints. By concentrating production, value chain clustering can enhance access to essential services (e.g. slaughtering and cold storage), improve market access, and reduce overall costs. While clustering holds promise for PNG’s poultry value chain, its success hinges upon joint action between the public and private sectors, as well as NGOs operating within the value chain.

× Context: The average consumption of protein foods in Papua New Guinea (PNG) remains insufficient to meet nutritious diet guidelines, especially in rural areas. While an expanding literature has demonstrated that poultry is a cost-efficient animal source food to increase protein intake, rural households in PNG face high prices at the market for poultry meat. Similarly, the high price of poultry production inputs constrains greater uptake of rural poultry production. PNG’s heavy reliance on feed (and feed input) imports, as well as high transportation costs and insufficient rural manufacturing and processing infrastructure creates limited opportunities for rural subsistence and commercial poultry production growth.
Objective: There is a lack of value chain studies to understand the feasibility of expanding the local mini livestock feed mill model in PNG to increase poultry feed supply in underserved areas. This study builds from earlier work on rural livestock feed infrastructure programs, and aims to fill the knowledge gap on the opportunities and constraints for expanding domestic livestock feed production and distribution via rural mini feed mills.
Method: The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the National Agriculture Research Institute (NARI) conducted in-depth qualitative interviews with 8 mini mills and 13 poultry farmers across 4 highland provinces during October and November 2022. We synthesize the interview transcriptions of the qualitative interviews in tandem with quantitative analysis of food consumption and agri-food trade data, as well as the authors’ own field observations in this paper.
Results: The in-depth interviews showed that the poultry farmers who purchased from local mini feed mills substantially lowered their feed costs, resulting in greater gross profits compared to rural poultry farmers that only sourced feed from commercial feed suppliers. However, the mini feed mills that we interviewed outlined a series of challenges in sustaining rural feed mills in PNG. The main challenges of running a successful mill included feed mill equipment procurement, electricity reliability, reliable raw ingredient supply, mini mill retailing to secure a client base, and adequate information about feed formulation. We identified two potential approaches that have overcome many of the identified challenges, that could be replicated and adapted to expand mini feed mill operations in the Highlands. The first approach is a farmer cooperative model that incorporates credit and feed delivery services to cooperative farmers. In doing so, they are able to better estimate volume demand for processed feed and accommodate feed production accordingly. The second approach follows a lead firm model, whereby a local farm supply retail outlet is expanding its business to include livestock feed production and supply, overcoming equipment procurement constraints given their previously developed business model focused on farm implement supply. Our evaluation provides detailed costs and benefits of both approaches for potential expansion of these livestock feed producer and distributor models.

× If smallholder farming households in Papua New Guinea achieve higher crop productivity levels, progress will be made along several dimensions of the development vision for PNG – increasing GDP for the agricultural sector and the overall economy; driving growth, diversification, and transformation of local rural economies; improving food consumption; and reducing poverty. In this paper, we examine recent data on yields for the most important crops grown in PNG, assess what yields might be achieved based on productivity data from areas of Indonesia with similar growing conditions, and sketch where policy reforms could provide incentives and access to technologies to achieve higher crop yields by all farmers across PNG.

× The Nexus Project is a collaboration between IFPRI and its partners, including national statistical agencies and research institutions. Our aim is to improve the quality of social accounting matrices (SAMs) used for computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The Nexus Project develops toolkits and establishes common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. This addresses the need for greater transparency and consistency in SAM construction to strengthen model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries. Nexus SAMs allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structure, especially agriculture-food systems. The Nexus Project’s guiding principles are that all data should be traceable to original sources and/or assumptions, and that all SAMs should be freely available online. Greater transparency and accessibility should facilitate more data validation and participation of the modeling community. Statistics are continuously being revised and errors are often only identified when data is used for analysis, and so we welcome your suggestions on how the SAMs can be improved to reflect new and/or better information.

× Policymakers in Papua New Guinea face difficult choices as to how best to promote economic growth and reduce poverty in the context of vast differences in technology and infrastructure across the country. Fluctuations in world prices of petroleum, minerals, and export crops complicate the management of the economy because of their large impacts on export earnings and government revenues, as well as household welfare. Moreover, other shocks, such as the Covid-19 pandemic that shut down major parts of the economies of PNG and the rest of the world, have far-reaching effects on various economic sectors, as well as the health and welfare of the population.
This paper presents an analysis of investment options in the agricultural sector and the effects of major economic shocks to the PNG economy using an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that provides estimates of the economic linkages between production, household incomes, consumption, investment, and trade. The model’s base data, a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2019, and many of the parameters are derived from the national accounts, household surveys and other data for PNG. It is important to realize, however, that even though the SAM and model structure provide a framework that guarantees a consistency of many of the assumptions, there remain many uncertainties in the data. Thus, the results presented here should not be interpreted as exact estimates, but only approximations of potential effects of policies and external shocks.
The plan of this paper is as follows. Chapter 2 provides an overview of agriculture and economic growth in PNG over the last two decades, highlighting the declining share of agriculture in GDP despite positive agricultural GDP growth rates and changes in the real exchange rate that have major implications for incentives in the economy. Chapter 3 then presents a summary of the economy-wide model used in the analysis. Details of the model are found in the annexes and in the references included in the paper. Design of the model simulations and model results are discussed in Chapter 4. These simulations cover various investments in agriculture and transport infrastructure, increases in world prices of petroleum and natural gas, price increases for agricultural exports and hypothetical carbon credits tied to a reduction in exports of forestry products. Chapter 5 concludes with a summary of the main findings, policy implications and suggested areas for further work.

× Papua New Guinea continues to encourage a policy focus on food and nutrition security. The PNG National Nutrition Policy (2016-2026) and Nutrition Strategic Action Plan (2018-2022) (NSAP) set a path to improve coordination, secure sufficient funding, and improve technical capacity of nutrition-focused pro gram implementation. As policy prioritizes improved nutrition outcomes, it is important to understand the cost that households face of securing a higher level of nutrition. Ensuring a healthy diet that meets nutrition standards is relatively expensive in PNG. The analysis presented in this paper, which uses detailed household food and non-food consumption data suggests that 4/5 of households in the survey sample live below the healthy diet poverty line (which sets a calorie threshold and defines healthy diet nutrition targets). That is, these households do not have the income available (or do not consume sufficient food and non-food goods) to meet their basic needs which includes securing a nutritious diet that meets food based die tary guidelines.

× The welfare of Papua New Guinea’s (PNG’s) population depends on domestic agriculture productivity and stability. As of 2019, value-added from the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sectors totaled approximately 17 percent of GDP. However, when considering the downstream value chain activities directly related to the agriculture sector (e.g., agriculture processing, domestic food trade and transportation, and domestic food commodity sales), the larger agri-food system in PNG contributes over 25 percent to the country’s overall GDP (Pradesha and Dorosh, 2022). Maximizing efficiency throughout the entire agri-food value chain is critical to fostering greater economic growth and poverty reduction within the country. Growing a globally competitive agriculture sector also demands investments and capacity strengthening in mid-stream value chain operations such as product aggregation, transport logistics, packaging and processing, and handling. It is important that these investments also promote inclusive development that benefits both men and women value chain actors. Previous research suggests that where women are economically empowered and have access to decent jobs in lucrative nodes (i.e., activities) of value chains, households have higher incomes and are less likely to be poor (FAO, 2011). In PNG, despite women’s greater share of employment in agriculture (60 and 52 percent of women and men work in agriculture, respectively), women participate less in higher-value agricultural production and trade activities (Chang et al., 2016; Omot, Chambers, and Spriggs, 2013; World Bank, 2022).

× Understanding how the Papua New Guinea (PNG) agricultural economy and associated household consumption is affected by climate, market and other shocks requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG.
In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. We have built the model to be flexible in order to explore different potential scenarios and then identify where and how households are most affected by an unexpected shock. The model is designed using region and country-level data sources that inform the structure of the PNG food economy, allowing for a data-driven evaluation of potential impacts on agricultural production, food prices, and food consumption. Thus, as PNG confronts different unexpected challenges within its agricultural economy, the model presented in this paper can be adapted to evaluate the potential impact and necessary response by geographic region of an unexpected economic shock on the food economy of the country.
We present ten simulations modeling the effects of various shocks on PNG’s economy. The first group of scenarios consider the effects of shocks to production of specific agricultural commodities including: 1) a decrease on maize and sorghum output due to Fall Armyworm; 2) reduction in pig production due to a potential outbreak of African Swine Fever; 3) decline in sweet potato production similar to the 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate shock; and 4) a decline in poultry production due to COVID-19 restrictions on domestic mobility and trade. A synopsis of this report, which focuses on the COVID-19 related shocks on the PNG economy is also available online (Diao et al., 2020).1
The second group of simulations focus on COVID-19-related changes in international prices, increased marketing costs in international and domestic trade, and reductions in urban incomes. We simulate a 1) 30 percent increase in the price of imported rice, 2) a 30 percent decrease in world prices for major PNG agricultural exports, 3) higher trade transaction costs due to restrictions on the movement of people (traders) and goods given social distancing measures of COVID-19, and 4) potential economic recession causing urban household income to fall by 10 percent. Finally, the last simulation considers the combined effect of all COVID-19 related shocks combining the above scenarios into a single simulation.
A key result of the analysis is that urban households, especially the urban poor, are particularly vulnerable to shocks related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Lower economic activity in urban areas (assumed to reduce urban non-agricultural incomes by 10 percent), increases in marketing costs due to domestic trade disruptions, and 30 percent higher imported rice prices combine to lower urban incomes by almost 15 percent for both poor and non-poor urban households. Urban poor households, however, suffer the largest drop in calorie consumption - 19.8 percent, compared to a 15.8 percent decline for urban non-poor households. Rural households are much less affected by the Covid-19 related shocks modeled in these simulations. Rural household incomes, affected mainly by reduced urban demand and market disruptions, fall by only about four percent. Nonetheless, calorie consumption for the rural poor and non-poor falls by 5.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively.

× The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented a unique challenge to governments across the globe, reinforcing the need to improve understanding of domestic and international trade trends to provide more informed options for policy response. During the last several months, IFPRI has been analyzing a variety of Papua New Guinea (PNG) national and global datasets with the goal of expanding analytical tools to evaluate potential production shortfalls and food price shocks, and their associated impacts on household food security and livelihoods. This research note focuses on agri-food import and export trends during the last two decades to better evaluate potential changes in related import demand and export potential in PNG. In doing so, this research note informs an upcoming economy-wide multi market model analysis that will model a variety of potential shocks to household welfare to identify policies to manage potential ensuing food security threats.
PNG’s growth in international agri-food trade (both export and import) will continue to be important to overall food security outcomes among rural and urban households. Rural households that produce key export cash-crops (e.g., coffee, cocoa, palm oil) depend on the cash economy to supplement overall food consumption, while urban households depend on rice and other agri-food imports (as well as domestic goods) for consumption. Agri-food imports are also contributing to important increases in the availability of protein-dense foods, with the value of poultry imports growing, on average, 30 percent per capita per year from 2001 – 2016. Although PNG’s agri-food import data suggest a greater demand for higher value food items such as animal-sourced foods, the total import value of ultra-processed foods, such as sugary drinks, are also increasing rapidly within PNG.
The profitability and growth of agricultural exports and imports are driven by several factors, including levels of public investment in infrastructure, weather and climate shocks, security and political stability, and conditions in the world market. Government economic policies, including exchange rate, trade and price policies, also heavily influence agricultural trade. Policy to promote and facilitate domestic movement of goods, as well as macro-economic policies that influence the relative price of tradable to non-tradable goods (the real exchange rate) should be managed appropriately to support and incentivize greater agri-food production and trade. These policies could also be paired with an expanded set of education programs that integrate nutrition-sensitive information to address current increases in demand and consumption of high-saturated and sugary processed goods, of which total import values are rapidly increasing in PNG. Finally, a greater portfolio of organized databases, analytical tools and policy resources are warranted to facilitate real-time policy analysis that can inform key development investments and initiatives.

× Between May and July 2018, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) implemented a household-level survey in four areas of PNG: the Autonomous Region of Bougainville (South Bougainville near Buin), Madang (Middle Ramu near Kwanga Station), East Sepik (near Maprik) and West Sepik (near Nuku). The survey investigated the food systems of rural households and how they assure sufficient food to meet the nutritional needs of their household members. The household questionnaire for the survey focused on agricultural production systems and health outcomes and included modules on: production; consumption and expenditure; labor activities (farm and non-farm); nutritional status; and the experience of the survey households with recent agricultural production or other shocks that impacted their livelihoods. This report provides descriptive results from the survey and discusses key indicators and actions to improve agricultural systems and nutrition in PNG.

× The lack of data on rural household production systems and economic conditions in Papua New Guinea (PNG) has impeded efforts to inform development initiatives for the last decade. In 2015/16, a severe El Niño event decimated local crop production and underscored the lack of current data and analysis of PNG’s rural population. This paper presents recently collected data from a rural household survey in PNG, including detailed consumption and expenditure data, to explore poverty prevalence and vulnerability in selected rural areas. In doing so, we evaluate food production and consumption patterns within the survey areas and calculate area-specific poverty lines. In addition, we explore correlates of household consumption expenditure. Results suggest that approximately half of the survey sample have total consumption expenditure below the poverty line. When evaluating calorie consumption by food groups, we find that the rural diet is heavily dependent on starchy foods and a
large share of the sample has insufficient protein intake per capita. Further evaluation of the correlates of household expenditure suggest four potential policy initiatives to explore further as conduits to improving overall welfare: 1) identify measures to increase agricultural production and improve resilience to climate shocks; 2) increase investments in education; 3) seek opportunities to enhance migration out of rural areas and 4) reduce the number of household dependents. Given that approximately 80 percent of the population in PNG is dependent on rain-fed, subsistence agriculture, rural data collection and analysis to inform policy priorities and development investments are critical to ensure economic viability and food security. This paper presents the most recent poverty analysis in PNG in nearly a decade and a renewed effort to better inform development priorities for the country’s rural population.

× How do perceptions of one’s relative economic status affect gender attitudes, including support for women’s economic participation and involvement in decision-making? We conducted a 2018 survey experiment with female and male adults in approximately 1,000 households in Papua New Guinea. Employing an established survey treatment to subtly alter respondents’ perception of their relative economic well-being, we find that increased feelings of relative poverty make both men and women significantly more likely to support girls’ schooling and women’s paid employment, suggesting that relative economic insecurity can prompt support for women’s economic participation. However, increased feelings of relative poverty may trigger greater intra-household tension. While increased perceptions of relative poverty cause women to want more household decision-making authority, men’s attitudes toward women’s roles in decision-making are unchanged. Results underscore the complicated nature of gender attitudes, and how support for women’s economic participation may rise without simultaneous increases in women’s agency in decision-making.